Motor Vehicle Rear End Enlargement Economic Hidden Trouble &Nbsp; "Hit Pain" A Shares Which Nerve?

The big Yin sticks at 82 points of the Shanghai Stock Exchange ended the month long rebound in the market, and the curse of the long market will come true again. On the face of it, the "7. 23" Ningbo Wenzhou line, a major railway traffic accident and the fermentation of the US debt crisis, are the main reasons for triggering a heavy market crash. In fact, these two emergencies are just the fuse. The fundamental reason may be that the foundation of the current rally is already loose: the economy. Down The two big expectations of risk reduction and policy easing are almost at the end of the day. The 2700 point failed to fall without any resistance, which means that the pattern of weakness will continue.

Economic worries behind motor vehicle rear end enlargement

As we all know, in the three carriages that drive the economy, the performance of exports and consumption is relatively mediocre this year, and investment is still the main driving force for stimulating the economy. However, under the background that the real estate regulation and control policy is difficult to loose, the investment must maintain the high operation state, only can depend on the railroad, the safeguard room and the water conservancy three big blocks.

The motor vehicle accident on the evening of 23 may not only cause a lot of casualties, but also increase the expected slowdown in railway construction. It is not hard to imagine that if railway construction is slowed down halfway, investment will lose a competent "top manager", and the pattern of high operation may be difficult to maintain. The most direct result of the slowdown in investment growth is the unsustainable trend of high economic performance. In addition, the PMI data released by HSBC showed that the initial value of PMI in July was 48.9%, falling below the 50% demarcation line and falling to its lowest level in 28 months. This further shows that the growth momentum of manufacturing activity is slowing down and the risk of economic downturns is being released.

Back to the supporting factors of the current rally, it is undeniable that the economic downturn is always in progress. Expect It is also one of the factors that support the rebound market. However, if the investment is really less than a competent force, and the economic growth momentum will not be enough, and the cumulative effect of the previous policy tightening will be gradually released, the risk of the future economic downturn can not be overlooked.

Thunderbolt hits the heart of A shares.

The fermentation of motor vehicle accidents and the US debt crisis, such as the sudden flash of lightning in the sky, just hit the heart of A shares. After all, the basis for the rebound of A shares lies in the relaxation of policy and the limited risk of economic downside. "Heart" is hit, A shares will react violently. On the technical side, the collapse of the Shanghai Composite Index and the fall of the 2700 point mark on the 25 day also meant the deterioration of the short term technology, and the recent weakness of the A share market was in line with that.

It needs to be pointed out that the market must be completely changed and not only a single line should be used as the sole basis. The next step is to observe whether the multilateral organizations will effectively resist and whether the weak rebound will come down again after the fall.

Bullet train accident hits high speed rail concept stocks

"High-speed rail double" shrunk ten billion 6 stock volume limit

The special railway traffic accident on Yongwen line caused a great stir in the capital market. According to the total market value weighted method, in July 25th, the Wind information high-speed rail concept plate fell 6.98% overall, plunged into depth. adjustment The mud is in the mud. Among them, the "high-speed rail double" China South car and China north car respectively fell 8.90% and 9.69%, Tianma shares and Jinyi industrial 6 high speed rail concept stocks are more volume limit down, it is inevitable to let A share market investors to "hurt".

One stone stirs up thousands of waves.

25, Tianma shares, Baoli bitumen, Ding Han technology, new material of the times, Jinyi industrial and 6 high speed railway concepts of the south central limit of Hong Kong were all closed down.

At the same time, the "high-speed rail double" China Southern car and China north car also fell 8.90% and 9.69% respectively, and the daily turnover reached 1 billion 592 million yuan and 1 billion 253 million yuan respectively, a sharp increase of 642% and 505% compared with the previous trading day, and the trend of volume drop was very obvious. In the case of high-speed rail stocks, the total market value weighted method was used to calculate the Wind information high-speed rail concept plate, which fell by 6.98% in July 25th.

However, the impact of motor vehicle accidents is more than that. In July 25th, century reel and Jia hung Fei hung stopped trading because of the possible impact of corporate information on stock prices. Some researchers have speculated that the sudden suspension of listed companies may be a continuation of the impact of motor vehicle accidents.

It is worth noting that these are not all the effects of the accident. Early stage High-speed rail Once opened, the aviation stocks on the A share market were suppressed, dragging down the relevant aviation stocks. However, after the accident of the motor car, the group of aviation shares in the early morning of July 25th, and the 4 aviation shares of China Southern Airlines, Eastern Airlines, China Air China and Hainan Airlines increased by more than 2.4%, prompting investors to continue to deepen their thinking about the impact of the accident. Although the above aviation stocks were all dragged down by the big market slumping, however, Eastern Airlines closed up 1.19% against the market, showing the complexity of the impact of the accident on the A share market. {page_break}

Funds fled north and South cars

Analysts pointed out that in July 25th, the high-speed rail stocks collapsed, which is closely related to the large net outflow of funds, which can be seen from the overall drop of the high-speed rail concept plate.

This speculation is not groundless, and capital flow data confirm the above view to a large extent. For example, Yimeng software statistics show that the Tianma shares, Baoli bitumen, Ding Han technology, new material, Jinyi industrial and South Link 6 high-speed rail stocks all suffered the fate of net outflow of funds, and their net investment contributions amounted to 59 million 190 thousand yuan, 20 million 350 thousand yuan, 28 million 820 thousand yuan, 83 million 350 thousand yuan, 69 million 870 thousand yuan and 26 million 50 thousand yuan respectively.

With the above 6 stocks, the two companies suffered from the impact of the net outflow of capital, and the net outflow of funds was as high as 270 million yuan and 342 million yuan on the same day.

Insiders pointed out that the capital outflow of the high-speed rail concept plate was the direct cause of the overall collapse of the plate in July 25th. The accident seems to have cooled the fund's enthusiasm for high-speed rail stocks to a certain extent.

The cooling of funds and enthusiasm will inevitably lead to high speed rail. Concept stocks The market value has shrunk dramatically. For example, in the early days, the total market capitalization of A shares of China Southern car and China north car, which were sparkle in the early days, only drastically reduced by 5 billion 791 million yuan and 5 billion 229 million yuan in July 25th.

Panic boosted the chances of market crash.

Affected by factors such as motor vehicle accidents, the stock market encountered "black Monday". CB bloggers believe that the plunge is mainly caused by the psychological panic of investors. It is impossible to change the location of high-speed rail as a strategic emerging industry.

Bo you macro analysis, the impact of the 23 car accident on the stock market has only an impact on the high-speed rail listed companies, but the share of the high-speed rail plate in the stock market is very small, which will not cause the entire stock market to drop continuously. The collapse of the market on Monday was mainly caused by the psychological panic of investors. Most of the high-speed rail plate stocks rose sharply after the Spring Festival rally, and there was a bigger bubble. With the recent high-speed rail accidents, the high-speed rail concept stocks must be adjusted.

Mr Bo believes that Monday's collapse is nothing more than an overreaction of investors to high-speed rail accidents. The accident will not cause real adverse effects except for the negative psychological pressure of the high-speed rail plate. First, the accident is not caused by the high-speed rail itself. The development of the high-speed rail will not be terminated. Secondly, the high-speed rail development plan is a long-term plan, and its project and layout have been completed. It can never be aborted because of an accident. Finally, China needs high-speed rail due to energy problems, international situation and economic development needs.

Bo you Chen Xiaoyang believes that the overreaction of the market has made the market decline step by step, and the negative effects of the sudden factors are not sustainable. Once it is digested, the market can still regain its momentum.

Blogger lotus leaf reminds investors on the blog that for those companies who rely on large enterprises to survive, have a single technology and small scale, they should be cautious when choosing.

The eagle, riding on the Tianma, believes that the accident will increase the government's concern about the safety of the high-speed rail. It suggests that investors should pay more attention to the listed companies such as lightning protection, road monitoring and command system. He analyzed that the Ministry of Railways said that the cause of the high-speed rail accident was the result of equipment failure caused by lightning stroke. As the only listed company of A shares engaged in lightning protection equipment, the investment value of Ming Jia technology is highlighted. On the other hand, public opinion believes that the accident is related to the railway monitoring and command system. It involves related listed companies such as brilliant technology, century Riel, tareed, Silver River shares and Ding Han technology. This impact is only temporary, and will usher in more opportunities for development.