Operation Analysis And Annual Trend Forecast Of Textile Industry In The First Half Of The Year

This year is our country. The 12th Five-Year "During the opening year of the plan, the macroeconomic environment facing China's textile industry is very complicated. There is a slowdown in the global economic recovery, tight monetary policies such as raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio, increasing the cost of production factors, and continuously raising the value of the RMB against the US dollar. The overall market is in the haze of the macro environment, and the pressure on the industry continues to increase. Although the performance is good in the opening operation, the overall trend is slowing down.

Production continues to grow and growth slows down

In 2011 1~5, China's textile enterprises totaling more than 35 thousand and 400 scale (main business income of more than 20 million) achieved a total industrial output value of 1 trillion and 990 billion 817 million yuan, an increase of 30.15% over the same period last year. The growth rate of Enterprises above Designated Size in the 1~2, the first quarter and 1~4 months slowed down 1.82 percentage points, 1.47 percentage points and 0.39 percentage points respectively.

　 　內銷市場穩定 支撐行業發展

According to statistics, in 2011 1~5, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 71268 billion yuan, an increase of 16.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate continued to accelerate by 0.1 percentage points over 1~4 months. Among them, the retail sales of clothing shoes, pin and needle textile category were above 315 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 23.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was basically the same as that of 1~4 months. This shows that our domestic demand market has maintained steady growth this year.

Over the same period, China's textile enterprises above Designated Size realized sales value of 1 trillion and 942 billion 55 million yuan, an increase of 29.85% over the same period, including 1 trillion and 606 billion 682 million yuan of domestic sales value, an increase of 31.94% over the same period last year. And the ratio of domestic sales to total sales value is 82.73%, up 1.31 percentage points from the same period last year. It can be seen that the supporting role of domestic demand market for China's textile industry continues to consolidate.

Investment continues to grow, and growth rate continues to fall.

According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the total amount of fixed assets investment in China's textile industry was more than 5 million yuan, amounting to 220 billion 162 million yuan, an increase of 36.22% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 36.93% percentage points over the 1~4 months (0.71 percentage points). Among them, the textile industry invested 118 billion 777 million yuan, an increase of 28.70% over the same period last year; the clothing industry invested 71 billion 894 million yuan, an increase of 42.5% over the previous year; the chemical fiber manufacturing industry invested 25 billion 91 million yuan, an increase of 66.43% over the same period last year; the textile special equipment manufacturing industry invested 4 billion 401 million yuan, an increase of 15.65% over the same period last year.

From the regional perspective, the investment growth in the central and western regions has been faster, and the proportion has increased further, and the pace of regional structural adjustment has continued to accelerate. 1~5 months, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the central and western textile industry over 5 million yuan or more was 80 billion 309 million yuan, an increase of 55.78% over the same period last year, accounting for 36.48% of the national textile investment ratio, representing a 4.58 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

Despite the fact that the total investment in the textile industry has maintained an overall growth, the number of new projects in the industry has been reduced due to the tight funding environment. According to statistics, in 2011 1~5, the number of newly started projects in the textile industry was 5929, a decrease of 2.52% over the same period last year.

Export growth is growing faster and slower.

According to customs statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, China's total exports of textiles and clothing totaled 91 billion 123 million US dollars, an increase of 26.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 6.68 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year.

Despite the general view, the export of textile and clothing in China has shown a relatively fast growth in 1~5 months, but it has slowed down by 0.85 percentage points compared with the export growth rate (27.05%) in 1~4 months. Exit Price increase is an important factor supporting the rapid growth of exports. According to the Statistics Center of China Textile Industry Association, the price index of textile and clothing exports increased by 21.49 points in 1~5 months compared with that of the previous month. The textile export price index increased by 24.91 points, and the clothing export price index increased by 18.91 points.

Operation quality improvement, profit growth and decline

According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the labor productivity of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size (calculated according to the gross industrial output value) was 482 thousand and 800 yuan / person, an increase of 21.62% over the same period last year, and the three fee ratio of the industry was 5.82%, down 0.16 percentage points from the same period last year. It reflects that the level of technology application and management of the industry are continuously improving.

Since the beginning of this year, the profitability of China's textile enterprises has increased over the same period of last year, due to the continuous growth of domestic sales, the acceleration of structural adjustment within the industry, and the enhancement of the quality of operation. However, profit growth has continued to fall due to factors such as rising costs and capital approaching. According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the total profits of textile enterprises above Designated Size amounted to 97 billion 716 million yuan, up 42.84% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 10.73 percentage points compared with that in 1~3 months (53.57%). The profit rate of the whole industry was 5.06%, which was 0.42 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

Three major problems affecting operational factors {page_break}

First of all, textile enterprises continue to weaken their acceptance of cotton prices, and cotton prices fluctuate rapidly, making it difficult for textile companies to smile.

In recent years, the high price of cotton is undoubtedly the key factor to increase the cost pressure of raw materials. Since the second half of 2009, cotton prices have been rising all over the country, making textile enterprises complain repeatedly. By March 2011, the average monthly price of domestic cotton grade 328 has risen to 30732 yuan / ton, equivalent to 2.4 times of the average market price of the 328 grade cotton in 2009. Since mid March of this year, domestic cotton prices have been declining. By the end of May 2011, the drop was almost 30%, but still at a high level of 24500 yuan / ton.

Although enterprises have tried to digest the pressure of cost increase by adjusting product prices, improving production efficiency and improving management methods, price spanmission is still unable to synchronously digest the pressure of rising costs. In addition, it will also be affected by factors such as tight financial environment, poor turnover, and the use of chemical fiber substitutes. Textile enterprises will continue to weaken their acceptance of cotton prices.

Second, uncertainties in global demand increase, competition intensifies environmental tensions.

This year, there have been some unrest in the recovery process of the world economy, including the continuing upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, resulting in a sharp rise in energy prices. In addition, the massive earthquake and the nuclear leakage crisis erupted in Japan in March 11th, and the European debt crisis is coming.

In the context of world economic recovery and uncertainty in the growth of international market demand, competition among countries in the international market has become fiercer. The rising price of raw materials and rising labor costs in China's textile industry are particularly evident in recent years, making emerging developing countries directly challenge and compete with China's traditional textile and garment industry, especially the clothing industry.

Third, tight funding environment, raising interest rates to raise financing difficulties.

For many years, the financing of the textile industry, especially the financing of SMEs, which is the overwhelming majority of the textile and garment industry, has been a difficult problem for the industry. Whether it is normal production and operation, or expansion of scale, upgrading and lack of funds, textile and garment enterprises are struggling.

This year, the financial environment of textile enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is becoming more and more intense. In recent years, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate to 21.5% in sixth years. Since last year, this is the twelfth time that the central bank has raised the standard of deposit. Before January 12th last year, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions was only 15.5%, so far it has risen 6 percentage points.

At present, the frequent tightening monetary policy has raised the financing cost of the industry too fast and the interest expense has increased significantly. The increase in the reserve ratio and interest rate of bank deposits and loans makes the interest rate of private credit funds rising. This will increase the financing cost for some textile enterprises, which are not smooth enough for bank financing and seek private financing. According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the financial cost of China's textile industry increased by 36.64% over the same period, much higher than that of the main business revenue growth (31.14%) 5.59 percentage points.

Development prediction

Overall, this year, political turmoil in some parts of the world and natural disasters in some parts of the world have led to an increase in Global trade risk. Meanwhile, the European debt crisis is coming to a close. The problem of high fiscal deficits in the United States has become a drag on the progress of the world economic recovery. It is expected that the global economy will continue to recover, but the pace will slow down, and the international market demand will slow down. At the same time, the external market pressure will be greater. Under the condition of tight international competition environment, the trend of slow downward export will continue.

In the domestic market, the domestic demand market will maintain a steady growth trend and become an important support for the development of the textile industry. However, due to inflation and other factors, domestic residents will have a certain degree of influence on the consumption capacity of textiles and clothing. {page_break}

From the internal environment, the pressure of cost and the tight financial environment are the outstanding problems that our textile industry needs to face. Despite the rapid downward adjustment of cotton prices in recent years, the market has wait-and-see sentiment, and the industry chain has been hindrance. The pressure of tight funding environment will continue to increase in the second half of this year, and will continue to raise the financing cost of the industry and curb investment demand.

Taking all these factors into consideration, we believe that the overall growth rate of China's textile industry will continue to slow down in the second half of 2011.