In July, Monetary Growth Reached A 6 Year Low Of &Nbsp; Credit Or Directional Easing.

After a period of accumulation, the tightening effect of monetary policy has been fully manifested. According to the central bank's announcement yesterday Statistics Data showed that the growth rate of M2 in July was the lowest since May 2005. The growth rate of narrow money (M1) has also hit a new low since February 2009.

Central bank data showed that the balance of M2 was 77 trillion and 290 billion yuan at the end of 7, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year, which was 1.2 and 2.9 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year. The balance of M1 was 27 trillion and 60 billion yuan, up 11.6% over the same period last year, which was 1.5 and 11.3 percentage points lower than the end of last year and the same period last year. The currency in circulation (M0) was 4 trillion and 520 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3% over the same period last year. Net cash in the month was 70 billion 500 million yuan, more than 6 billion 700 million yuan a year.

For the rapid fall in the growth rate of money, E Yongjian, a financial research center at Bank of Communications (601328), said that the M2 growth rate reached a 6 year low, indicating that the effect of the pre tightening policy is accelerating. The current liquidity is obviously tight; M1 Speed up The decline is not only related to the decrease in initial deposits, but also to the downturn in the stock market.

According to the data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 492 billion 600 million yuan in July, a decrease of 25 billion 200 million yuan compared with the same period last year. In July, the growth rate of RMB loans increased by 16.6%, compared with 16.9% in June, which also continued the trend of slowing loan growth since March. This data is in line with the industry's previous expectations.

In July, RMB deposits decreased by 668 billion 700 million yuan, a decrease of 816 billion 600 million yuan compared with the same period last year. At the end of 7, the balance of foreign currency deposits was 79 trillion and 570 billion yuan, an increase of 16.1% over the same period last year. RMB deposit The balance of 77 trillion and 970 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%, was 1.3 and 2.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year.

E Yongjian believes that banks in the year credit The drop in capacity will continue to be limited and credit demand may slow down locally. However, considering the economic slowdown and the uncertainty of the peripheral economy, credit is likely to be relaxed in the fields of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, small and medium enterprises and affordable housing in the context of the continued credit crunch.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that if inflation pressure has been significantly alleviated in the next few months, the monetary policy of the same period or the "directional easing" approach will be applied to the financing of agriculture, rural areas, small and medium enterprises and affordable housing. The tightening of macroeconomic regulation and control will be weakened and the pace will be moderated moderately. But unless the economy slump or the consumer price index (CPI) decreases significantly, monetary policy will not relax significantly.

In terms of the use of specific monetary policy tools, He Yong Jian expects that the open market operation will be the main policy tool for the next stage, and the strength of the withdrawal will be further weakened to maintain relatively wide liquidity. Meanwhile, the possibility of loosen credit to specific areas is also greater. In recent days, the rise of RMB against the US dollar has accelerated, and exchange rate flexibility will increase. In contrast, reserve funds and interest rates will not be used easily unless there is further negative information.

Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Nomura Securities in China, pointed out that China's money market interest rate has dropped to its lowest level since June 2010, suggesting that the currency situation may have eased somewhat. It is expected that the interest rate and reserve requirement ratio will remain unchanged for the rest of the year. However, if the situation deteriorates overseas, the first policy action we believe will be to reduce the reserve requirement ratio.