New Credit In July Was Lower Than Expected &Nbsp, And The Possibility Of Raising Interest Rates Decreased.

The central bank released its financial statistics in July 2011, which added 492 billion 600 million yuan to the yuan, an increase of less than 25 billion 200 million yuan compared with the previous year.

In July, RMB deposits decreased by 668 billion 700 million yuan, a decrease of 816 billion 600 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

The industry believes that in July, new financial data such as credit are lower than expected, estimated that the possibility of raising interest rates in the future is very small; at the same time, the phenomenon of a large reduction in Renminbi deposits is noteworthy.

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According to the data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 492 billion 600 million yuan in July, a decrease of 25 billion 200 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

Among them, household loans increased by 176 billion 200 million yuan. Among them, short-term loans increased by 54 billion 100 million yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 122 billion 100 million yuan, and loans from non-financial enterprises and other sectors increased by 315 billion 700 million yuan, of which,

In addition, at the end of 7, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 77 trillion and 290 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year, which was 1.2 and 2.9 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 27 trillion and 60 billion yuan, up 11.6% over the same period last year, respectively, which was 1.5 and 11.3 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year.

Credit growth is lower than expected and the growth rate of M2 is decreasing, which means that the pressure of market liquidity is further reduced. The speed of M1's ring down is faster than that of M2.

The regulatory pressure of the central bank may be further reduced.

Lien Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications (601328), said there were four main reasons for the low new loans in July. One is the weakening of local credit demand in the real economy in the two quarter; two, the continued decline in M1 data and the decline in the activity of business activities; three, the implementation of the 6 increase in the quasi reserve ratio and the differential reserve ratio this year has brought restrictions on the credit capacity of banks; four is based on the three methods and the real loans in a guideline, and the ability to derive bank deposits is weakened.

Many industry insiders believe that yesterday's financial data released in July were far below expectations, indicating that the intensity of regulatory macro control has been highlighted, coupled with the overall turbulence in the current external market. Regulators will not tighten any tightening measures in order to stabilize market sentiment, so it is estimated that interest rates and deposits will be raised in the future.

RMB deposits reduced by 668 billion 700 million yuan

Data released by the central bank also showed that RMB deposits in July decreased by 668 billion 700 million yuan, or less than 816 billion 600 million yuan over the same period last year.

Among them, household deposits decreased by 665 billion 600 million yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 405 billion 700 million yuan, and fiscal deposits increased by 459 billion 200 million yuan.

Everbright Bank (601818) chief macroeconomic analyst Sheng Hongqing believes that the new amount of deposits is much lower than expected, mainly due to the large number of commercial banks issued financial products led to bank deposits into the enterprise, and July is the peak season for corporate taxes, but also led to part of the enterprise deposits into financial deposits.

People in the banking industry told reporters that the phenomenon of "household savings reduction" in July should be concerned.

After raising interest rates several times this year, the central bank still can not attract deposits to return to banks. This shows that the situation of "negative interest rates" does not improve, and the attractiveness of banks to residents' deposits will decrease.

In addition, the current "private lending" continues to heat up, which will lead to the withdrawal of residents' deposits from banks.