Pay Attention To The International Cotton Price Callback

According to the latest analysis report of Cotton Corp, the ICE futures contract rebounded from 93 cents to 108 cents in December. In the increasingly pessimistic economic outlook of the developed countries, the international spot price also came back as the stock market and commodity futures went down again. In addition to weak demand, the macroeconomic situation also seems to indicate that cotton consumption in 2011/12 is hardly optimistic.

Because of the whole Cotton supply The demand for chains has decreased significantly since March of this year. The US Department of agriculture lowered its global cotton consumption for second consecutive times in the August monthly report. The global cotton consumption in 2011/12 and 2010/11 was reduced to 25 million 80 thousand tons and 24 million 800 thousand tons respectively. Cotton consumption in China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Mexico declined in 2011/12.

In terms of output, global cotton production in 2010/11 and 2011/12 decreased by 121 thousand tons and 153 thousand tons respectively. In 2011/12, the output of Burkina Faso and Benin was reduced by 44 thousand tons and 27 thousand tons respectively, the output of Mali increased by 27 thousand tons, and the output of cotton in the United States increased by 120 thousand tons. Although the situation in Texas is still worrying, rainfall in Southeast and Central South America is conducive to cotton growth in recent years. As the output of US cotton increased, the export volume of US cotton also increased to 2 million 678 thousand tons. In addition, cotton production in Brazil was reduced by 152 thousand tons in 2011/12.

As global cotton consumption has decreased more than production, 2010/11's global end stocks have increased by 128 thousand tons in the year of 2010/11, and the final inventory of 2011/12 has increased by more than 370 thousand tons. Affected by this, the inventory consumption ratio of 2010/11 and 2011/12 increased to 39.5% and 45.7% respectively.

Considering that the global supply of cotton is still tense in 2011/12, Cotton price It is still possible to find support. In 2011/12, the initial cotton stocks in the United States were the lowest in nearly 15 years. Drought continued to threaten Texas's cotton growth. At the beginning of the year, US cotton export contracted a record high. In addition, China's purchasing and storage policy and the rising price of competitive crops may also provide support for cotton prices.

At present, high temperature and drought are very unfavorable to the growth of corn and soybean in the United States. Two crops Yield per unit area Both production and output have been reduced, while the global demand for these two crops has reached a record high. This will provide long-term support for corn and soybean prices, and cotton also needs to compete with competing crops for the area.