The Next Three Years Will Be The Occasion Of E-Commerce Logistics.

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Over the past few years, B2C has gathered in China's main online shopping cities to rent warehouses.

The Jingdong has 50 thousand square meters in Beijing, and has signed 40 thousand square meters. It will also build 8 "bird's nest" area "Asia first" logistics center in Shanghai. It has increased from 8 warehouses in Chengdu, Wuhan, Shenyang, Xi'an, Ji'nan and so on from 3 warehouses in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in early 2010, and is still looking for warehouses in other cities in China.

Their warehouse area increased from more than ten million square meters in 2010 to today's thirty million square meters, and it will increase at the end of the year.

In the next 3~5 years, platform makers will also be crazy about "enclosure".

The express market will go to the vertical segmentation in the next few years, making the regional market, doing the best service and making the fastest timeliness, and the region is king.

Small regional logistics will be crowded out and merged by large platform businesses (such as Ali and B2C).

Dangdang integrated more than 80 regional distribution companies: Shanghai's Dongfang Hui, Shanxi Youth Daily's red vest, Shandong's Yuan Zhi, Jiangsu's su school and so on; fan Kong Holdings such as wind, Jingdong made round, new eggs made Austria, easy to create fast, red children make macro goods logistics......

In the next 3~5 years, the platform providers will also expand their logistics system.

The open platform is becoming a trend.

The electricity supplier accelerated its pformation to the B2B2C mode: Jingdong mall announced on December 30, 2010 that its "brand direct selling" channel was formally launched, and the company's open platform began to operate.

And Baidu's shopping website Lok cool days also reached strategic cooperation with Qu Mei Furniture, which officially entered and opened the official flagship store.

Van V+'s website also increased its cooperation with clothing brands in 2011.

Conclusion 1: low price is the first cyber killer, and time and distance are second.

So the big B and the platform businesses, no matter how many rounds of financing, will first use the 50% to 75% of the financing system to build the logistics system, so that the time and distance can be achieved.

Conclusion 2: at present, the leading B2C enterprises have reached a new consensus: after solving the information and payment links, e-commerce is essentially the same as traditional retail businesses. The management capacity of physical warehousing and logistics will be the basis for future success.

Conclusion 3: venture capital capital leads to e-commerce enclosure, pushing hands to raise land rent and extending lease (10~20 years) to play the game of "catching turtle and releasing turtle".

The platform business has a long term, low price, large scale land rent warehouse, raising the rent of land, so that it can be leased to stationed brands in time to make stable landlords.

Conclusion 4: big business people are now spending money on new customers, optimizing system services, category expansion and storage expansion.

These hardware inputs are what any enterprise should do in the early stage, deciding whether the electricity supplier can run long distance or run short distance.

Once the facilities are completed and scale up, the overall profit level will increase.

Now some people in the industry think that these are burning money, which is the threshold.

The past is the gate, but beyond the ridge.

B2C is not strong enough to stay in customers, crazy advertising, that is called burning money, to stay in a strong B2C, crazy advertising, that is called "enclosure movement".

Regional logistics providers get the world.

At present, there are very few courier companies that can make COD nationwide. Besides "four big foreign capital" UPS, DHL, TNT and FedEx, only EMS, Shun Feng, Chinese and foreign pportation one, home express, and star emergency "five big faucets".

Resulting in unreasonable COD fees, the courier company exercised the banking function.

At present, the "four links and one reach" in the whole country is not "the whole country". They only serve China's one or two tier cities and some three developed cities with relatively advanced economy.

In China, pportation determines the economy and, of course, determines the distribution of express companies.

Therefore, the postal service of China has become a remote mountain area and has to "love".

The trend of region becoming king is becoming more and more intense.

For example, Shandong Yuan Zhi and Anjie express company, the whole territory of Shandong has been dispatched to the whole country the next day.

"Four links and one tattoo" were delivered to Shandong.

And Hainan's Chuangyi, even Jingdong, Dangdang pieces to Hainan, are looking for their delivery.

In fact, the electricity supplier is better combined with the stronger regional express companies in the whole country. Logistics costs and timeliness are stronger than self built logistics.

So the next 3 years will be the best time to purchase and annex regional logistics.

Although regional logistics is short and vigorous, with the low cost of local pport buses and migrant workers, it can achieve high speed and blind area free delivery.

However, the limitations of its capital operation capability and COD management capability determine that its management risk is large and only the regional hills are king.

So Huitong was bought by Alibaba. The whole one was annexed by DHL.

Service to win the last mile

Customer level

"Last meter" attitude: customer experience is the most direct lifeline of e-commerce.

With the increasing cost of new business, e-commerce is increasingly focusing on the only "last meter" meeting with customers.

But the only one is not the electricity supplier, but the uncontrolled third party logistics.

Therefore, the third party's "last mile" service is the most concern of the electricity supplier, and it is also the most direct embodiment of the electricity supplier's logistics capability.

Otherwise, there is no good "last meter" service, even if the electricity supplier has good commodity, page technology, picture display and editing, the customer experience is still low.

Cod: the current market environment, although the way of online banking and Alipay has gradually entered the lives of ordinary people, but the way of collecting payment is still the first choice in the Chinese e-commerce market, and will continue for at least 10 years.

Therefore, if we want to achieve sustainable growth, we must attract users to repeat purchases.

COD with continuous value is a means to attract repeat purchase.

Open box acceptance and try on Service: the three years after the development of the electricity supplier will grab customers from offline stores.

Open box acceptance, even pick experience has become one of the best tools for e-commerce.

Therefore, "try three to buy one" is a big topic for the electricity supplier and the courier to face the freight speed and the virtual library pmission speed.

Customer orientation: at present, couriers have been unclear about their customers.

Always regard the electricity supplier as the only God.

In fact, Jesus does exist, not in Jesus himself, but in the Christian public.

In the next three years, the express will turn around the idea that netizens are God's God.

Clearly, the electricity supplier's expectation is that it would rather be wronged by the express delivery company than the courier when sending the real God to be a grandson.

Pick up cycle: at present, SF and FedEx Express have delivered 3 times daily.

Some big B and platform providers require couriers to wait for the receipt all day long and increase the frequency of demand picking cycles indefinitely.

In order to save the place to store the express parts and speed up the starting point of delivery.

Money recovery cycle: at present, the courier has implemented the reconciliation system with the electricity supplier's financial system.

Loss compensation: at present, the most popular practice is: electricity providers do not buy insurance, and the rate of damage within 2/10000 is exempt from delivery.

More than 2/10000 of the damage rate is due to the express.

This is not only the pressure to check the express business, but also the risk guarantee for the express delivery.

Timeliness protection: the electricity supplier has been implemented into the cooperative courier for the logistics sub departments, the same performance appraisal mechanism, reward and punishment is clear to protect the effectiveness and reduce customer complaints rate.

Value added services: the cost of envelope advertising, distribution vehicle advertising, directory marketing and so on will be apportioned to express tickets per ticket. This is a win-win service trend.

Platform level e-commerce warehouse logistics research

Warehouse

In 2010, VJIA, music naughty, red children, and the walk show network have become the new favorite of capital pursuit.

With the rise of financing heat is the industry's collective money burning, logistics and warehousing construction has become the main battlefield of burning money, the old B2C industry is busy in the country's old and lower building construction and storage base.

In March 2010, Le Tao announced that the company would establish warehousing bases in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Wuhan and other places in less than two months, so that the storage area of the company increased by 5 times compared with that of last year, with three warehouses in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong officially put into operation.

In June 2010, Taobao announced the implementation of Taobao logistics plan and launched a logistics information platform for the B2C industry. Its Taobao warehouse has been put into operation in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Beijing.

Ma Yun is more ambitious that logistics treasure can solve the last logistics bottleneck of B2C industry.

The Jingdong mall, which has always emphasized the "storehouse decision", announced in July 2010 that it will build 2 million 600 thousand mu in Shanghai in 2011, equivalent to 8 "bird's nest" big "Asia 1" logistics center.

And in Beijing and Chengdu, a large modern logistics center with an area of more than 100 thousand square meters has been built in succession. With the announcement of a series of plans, Jingdong expects to invest 2 billion ~30 billion yuan to logistics construction in the next 3 years.

At present, large B and platform businesses calculate the order capacity with storage area.

Each order needs to be supported by 1 square meters of storage. Generally, a logistics center will have to deal with 10 thousand square meters.

The strategy of split warehouse coverage: Based on the consumer groups in the Taobao area, the world is divided into seven parts:

Low level duplication and suppliers' miserable SKU volume and commodity category:

There is still a big gap between Chinese electricity providers and the supply chain capabilities of traditional retail giants.

For example, WAL-MART has less than ten times the number of SKU inventory in China than the domestic electricity supplier, but it can implement JIT and achieve a dynamic sales rate of 96% in a scientific and reasonable scope.

Our outstanding SKU number is 700 thousand, Jingdong 1 million.

It is only 100 yuan accumulated stock, only sell 1 yuan, the remaining 99 yuan in the warehouse, and often out of stock.

Personnel aspect

At present, China's logistics warehousing is not mature due to the fourth party logistics service providers, and logistics equipment (such as conveyor belt) application and imported technology (such as radio frequency technology) level is not high, resulting in the accumulation of manpower has become the only means of operation.

The 3C type electricity supplier, such as the Jingdong, issued 120 thousand orders on the end of 2010. Its warehousing and logistics personnel were 3500 people, with 35 per day per capita, and the average B processing capacity of all customers, store No. 1, red boy, M18 light category and storage platform per day was 60.

Therefore, improving the operation efficiency of the warehouse and improving the skills of personnel operation standard become an important KPI of low cost and high efficiency logistics.

Split warehouse mode

1. mother child library, sub library covering regional orders, mother library covering the whole country.

If the order is filtered through the sub library, if it is not met, the parent store will be responsible for the distribution.

Advantages: improve the shopping experience of some customers, reduce the error rate caused by the separate orders and the system logic is clear.

Disadvantages: our front desk must be the inventory of the parent library. After the order is downloaded, the sub library stock is checked first. If the sub library is satisfied, the display inventory of the front desk will not be reduced.

When the storehouse is available, the front desk can not be sold when the parent store is out of stock.

And when a multi commodity order needs to be shipped from different warehouses, the distance is no more than a single one. If the customer orders a number of goods, the cost of distribution will be doubled, and the possibility of producing abnormal parts will be even higher.

Type: Dangdang, new egg, excellent.

Optimization model: excellence can be sent to two storehouses, and can also be sent single, while increasing JIT procurement.

The front desk displays virtual inventory.

2. sister Libraries - two separate customers who are independent of their respective regions. If they are not satisfied, they can only register shortages and delete orders.

Advantages: customers of different regions sell different product structures.

Disadvantages: reduced customer experience, Shanghai has goods, but Guangzhou customers can not order.

Or the allocation of the interval, resulting in the allocation of freight.

Type: Jingdong, red children.

Optimization model: red children realize the local procurement mode, the sales mode of each branch, so that the supply and pportation cost is low and no virtual inventory is needed.

Of course, it is a test of the purchasing power and scale strength of businesses.

Bubble crazy big B and platform vendors are self built logistics distribution, resulting in capital strength is useless at the knife edge.

Such as fan and Jingdong.

Struggling big B and platform traders are all participating in the mode of self built logistics.

Such as Yi Xun and red children.

Healthy development of large B and platform vendors are to control regional logistics, to become their strategic partners, to win a win-win situation, to do their best.

Such as Dangdang, M18, OKBUY, Le Tao, Martha Maso and so on.

Conclusion: seven trends

Based on the above analysis, the trend of e-business in the past 3 years is concluded.

The 1. major businesses are self built logistics and rented warehouses. They want to make landlords through the support of the government; otherwise, the larger the self built system, the more serious the waste of social resources.

2. regional logistics must look for VCs to become the region's kings, and will have boundless scenery in the future. Otherwise, they will be merged and excluded.

3. optimistic about 3 years after the healthy development of large B will be on the market.

On the contrary, several big B are showing bubble spots.

It's not because we can't go public, but because we dare not go public.

Listed on what to make profits for shareholders, so it is recommended that the senior logistics personnel of electricity providers remember: instead of waiting for a night to become rich on the chicken head, it is better to be in the phoenix tail.

Effort is more important than choice.

The 4. big B will continue to do logistics, and there will be no way to do logistics.

Grass roots and aristocrats have differences in temperament and mind.

So Shun Feng, Tantong, Shentong, rhyme are currently in the start-up of e-commerce projects, the author is not optimistic.

The success of the business needs the "three capitals" (resources, capital, qualifications), crude and crazy, and the couriers who are born with reckless grass roots.

5.WMS (warehouse management system) model will be more and more widely used.

Handling orders by manpower accumulation can not last long.

The cost of RF technology will drop in 3 years, and will be widely used in the electricity business.

6. mother and child stores will be less and less electricity providers, sister warehouse is a major trend.

Because the national economic disparity will be smaller and smaller, national procurement is inevitable.

For example, there are more and more processing enterprises in Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan and other cities and towns, and more and more scale.

The 7. big B will pform their self built mode to "extend the chain of supply chain to the last mile".

This chain will be the distribution vehicle of the SF mode.

The SF distributor is both a small member and a franchisee.

Chen Ping is right: at present, the SF distribution staff and SF are cooperative relations rather than employment relations, which is like an insurance company, although there are 300 thousand of the salesmen, but the insurance companies do not need to provide offices for them, and even do not have to pay for three risks and one gold.

SF's distribution personnel are brought in by themselves. The relationship between SF and SF is that they send and send express tickets for SF. They take one piece for 2 yuan and take one for 3 yuan. Their fuel consumption, installation and even time and manpower management are not related to the company.

The most important point is that the dispatcher is also very motivated.

Well done, there are tens of thousands of yuan income, not good, only three or five thousand, the choice of eating or porridge choice and responsibility for each joined the boss - the distributor himself decide.

Of course, system training is the premise, otherwise it can only take the road of self defects built by Jingdong. It spends a lot of money just to build up its own logistics, although many of its own distribution staff, but most of the Jingdong's attitude of distribution staff and the third party logistics small member's attitude are not two kinds.