3 Billion, The Central Bank Will Issue &Nbsp Today; The Tender Rate Will Become The Vane Of Interest Rate Increase.

To maintain the foundation currency Stable growth and stable money market interest rates will issue a 3 billion yuan 1 year central bank vote today, with a decrease of 2 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Analysts believe that the current 1 year central bank interest rate rise or not will affect the market's interest rate expectations: the increase is expected to increase interest rates, flat will weaken the interest rate expectations.

Data show that this week, the central bank's open market funds fell to 25 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 64 billion yuan compared with last week, a drop of 71.91%. The reduction in the amount of funds due is regarded as the main reason for the decrease in the circulation of 1 - year central bank votes.

"Today's 1 year issue rate of central bank votes will become the focus of attention of the whole market." A state-owned commercial bank trader said that the central bank's interest rate rise will greatly strengthen the interest rate expectations. The central bank recently raised interest rates in July 7th, and in June 21st and June 28th, the issuance rate of the 1 - year central bank has jumped for a long time. Therefore, if the issuing interest rate of the central bank can be kept stable for 1 years, it will greatly reduce the market's anticipation of raising interest rates.

Last week, the 1 - year central voting rate rose to 8.58 basis points, 3 - month and 3 - year. Central bank ticket Interest rates also rose, especially the former, which greatly enhanced the market's anticipation of raising interest rates. Because the adjustment of the 1 - year central issue rate is often the signal of the benchmark interest rate adjustment. This experience has been verified many times.

But for last week's 1 - year central bank interest rate rise, a small number of analysts believe that the interest rate increase after the July central bank interest rate. The reason is that the interest rate of the 1 - year central bank rose by only 19.24 basis points before the last increase in interest rates, which is still 8 basis points from the 25 base points approved by the market. Last week's 1 - year rise in the central bank's interest rate just made up for the difference.

Guotai Junan released a research report in August 22nd, taking into account the open market in the next two weeks. futures The currency is limited, which is only about 25 billion, and the policy tools such as central bank ticket and repo are fully activated, so the central bank's probability of raising the deposit rate in the short term is extremely low. The agency forecasts that CPI will be 6% in August, and forecast that the interest rate increase is not necessary from the perspective that the average interest rate of loans is high and inflation is coming down soon.

National securities believe that in recent years, a big worry for the A market is that the central bank has raised the number of central bank issuing rates for a number of terms. This makes the market worry that the central bank will soon increase interest rates to cope with the current high inflation level. However, the agency believes that the current increase in central issue rate is not a signal that the central bank will raise interest rates or raise the deposit reserve ratio again, but it does show that the central bank does not want to relax monetary policy any more quickly.

"Whether the interest rate rise of the 1 - year central bank rate is a signal of raising interest rates again, we can see today. The traders said that although the industry held different views on the rising interest rate of the central bank, the A share market reaction was more intense. Since last Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen for five consecutive days. Perhaps, as the interest rate of the 1 - year central bank is clear, the A share market will also make a phased choice.

Agricultural Bank of China [2.57 0% shares bar Research Report] the latest report of the note business department said that last week, the yield of the central bank's votes rose all the way, resulting in the increase in interest rates expected to rise, coupled with the decrease in foreign exchange holdings in July, suggesting that the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio possibility.

Hongyuan securities [14.30 -0.07% shares research report] fan believes that the upward trend of the central bank's interest rate this time means that the central bank will not increase interest rates or raise monetary policy tightening in the short term. Fan's reason is that the uncertainty of the global economic recovery is very strong. The central bank is unlikely to use the two rate to adjust its monetary policy. What is more important is the open market operation.

Yesterday, the interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai increased slightly, except for the 3 month and half year varieties. The other varieties rose, and overnight and weekly varieties rose by more than 34 basis points. On the same day, the rate of repurchase fixed interest rates rose by 2 basis points, of which 7 varieties rose by 83 basis points. This shows that with the approaching of the end of the month, the market funds face is once again facing tense situation.