Adjustment And Transformation: China'S Economic Development In The Post Financial Crisis Era

I. the international financial crisis has accelerated China.

The international financial crisis, which broke out in the second half of 2008, has a huge impact on China's economy, marking the beginning of a new round of adjustment and pformation of China's economy.

In fact, the cyclical callback of China's economy has already appeared in the second half of 2007. The quarterly economic growth rate of China's economy began to decline quarterly by the third quarter of 2007, indicating that the cyclical economic returns were earlier than the impact of the international financial crisis on China's economy.

Before the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China's economy has already faced enormous adjustment pressure. The problems such as fast growth of investment, excessive credit injection, and large trade surplus are prominent problems.

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the sharp contraction of external demand extends from the downstream processing trade manufacturing sector to the upstream energy and raw materials sector through export related departments, which has a direct impact on China's real economy.

The rapid decline of domestic stock market and housing market triggered a decline in fixed asset investment growth led by the real estate industry. Through the real estate related departments, it affected steel, petrochemical, building materials, nonferrous metals and other heavy chemical industries, which further aggravated the depth of China's economic downturn and made China face the most severe challenges since the Asian financial crisis.

The impact of this international financial crisis on China's economy is so great that it is caused by the sharp contraction of external demand and the rapid decline of domestic industrial production and the decline of employment. But the underlying reason is that the structural contradictions accumulated mainly in the pattern of economic growth are intensifying, not only in the demand structure, but also in the imbalance between domestic demand and external demand, the incompatibility between investment and consumption, the low contribution rate of consumption to economic growth, and the low proportion of low value-added industries and the low contribution rate of independent innovation, and the low contribution rate of technological progress and innovation to economic growth.

These structural contradictions are more prominent after the outbreak of the financial crisis and must be solved step by step through a new round of adjustment and pformation.

The international financial crisis accelerated China's economy.

The coming period is a critical period for China's economic adjustment and pformation, not only because the international economic environment will undergo extensive and profound changes, but also the internal factors that will support China's economic growth in the past 30 years will also undergo new changes, and the challenges facing it will become increasingly complex and severe.

The new round of economic adjustment and pformation should not only resolve the contradictions and problems accumulated in the past high growth period, but also create a new stage for our economy to achieve a more long-term, healthier and more sustainable development after the economic recovery. This also means that the tasks to be completed in this round of economic adjustment and pformation are more arduous than ever before.

Two, global economic readjustment to China's economic adjustment and

The international financial crisis and the most severe recession of world economy since World War II ended the trend of rapid economic growth in the world since the 80s, especially since the beginning of this century, and triggered a deep adjustment of the global economy. This will cause extensive and profound changes in the external environment of China's development, and put forward an urgent demand for China's economic adjustment and pformation.

(1) global economic depth adjustment and its main characteristics

1, economic globalization will develop in twists and turns.

Since the beginning of this century, the new global climax characterized by global market integration and expanding economies of scale has become the main force to promote global economic growth.

The emerging market economies such as East Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe integrate into the global economic system and create a huge "global dividend" by deepening the "Smith's growth" driven by the deepening of the global division of labor.

The financial crisis marked the pition from a high tide to a low tide.

With the revival of trade protectionism and the great difficulty in the breakthrough of the Doha round, countries will be more cautious about opening up the financial market. The process of economic globalization may slow down. However, the financial crisis will not change the trend of economic globalization, promote the liberalization of trade and investment and the construction of multilateral trade system, and reconstruct the global financial system. It will still be the inevitable choice for the world to achieve economic development and prosperity.

The trend of economic globalization is irreversible, but the development process will be more complicated and tortuous.

2, the growth of new technological revolution has increased.

The financial crisis in the United States, to a large extent, reflects the lack of a new growth point in the US after the collapse of the Internet share bubble.

Without major breakthroughs in the new scientific and technological revolution, it will be difficult for the world economy to reproduce "bear Pete growth" driven by the information technology revolution in the 90s.

Historical experience shows that economic crisis often spawned major technological innovation and technological revolution. Relying on scientific and technological innovation to foster new growth points, new jobs and new growth models is the fundamental way to get rid of the financial crisis.

In the process of coping with the financial crisis, the major countries in the world are implementing the "Green New Deal", and taking the development of green energy as an important means to stimulate the economy, set off a boom in the development of green energy and low carbon economy, which is likely to become an important driving force for the birth of new scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution.

Green energy and low carbon economy are becoming the commanding heights of international competition, and the competition among countries in the field of green energy technology is more intense.

3, global imbalance is entering a period of rebalancing.

The global economic imbalance is the inevitable result of the international industrial pfer and the deepening of international division of labor in the process of globalization, as well as the inevitable product of the international monetary system based on the dollar standard.

In a sense, the international financial crisis is a mandatory adjustment that is approaching the limit of global economic imbalances. It is bound to push the global economy into the rebalancing process (rebalance).

The increase of savings rate and consumption rate in developed countries will shrink the international import market, and the developing countries will be forced to expand their internal demand because of the contraction of external market.

For the East Asian export oriented countries, the import market of developed countries is shrinking and Global trade slows down, and export growth will continue to decline. In the short term, it is difficult to find new growth points for export pfer. For oil exporting countries, the economic downturn in developed countries has reduced demand for oil, and the surplus in regular items and import demand will be greatly reduced.

The rebalancing of global imbalances is not only reflected in the adjustment of the debt consumption growth model represented by the United States, but also the overproduction growth pattern represented by East Asian countries will face a process of readjustment.

4, world economic growth will resume growth in adjustment.

The financial crisis has led to a deep recession in the developed economies, and growth in emerging and developing countries has slowed sharply.

Although the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed countries and some emerging market countries have successively adopted large-scale financial rescue and economic stimulus measures, the recovery of the world economy will be a tortuous and slow process, and there is greater uncertainty.

According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, the world economy will see the most severe recession after the war this year, which is expected to drop by 1.4%. In 2010, the world economy is expected to grow by 2.5%, of which the developed countries are expected to achieve a 0.6% weak growth, and the emerging market and developing countries will grow 4.7%.

From the perspective of development, the recovery of the world economy will be a tortuous, slow and complex process. It is necessary for financial institutions to deal with a large number of non-performing assets and balance their balance sheets for several years. The new economic growth point can hardly become the main driving force for economic recovery in the short term. The adjustment of the global economic imbalance has increased the complexity of recovery.

In the coming period, the world economy will resume growth in adjustment, with an average annual growth rate of around 3%, significantly lower than the 5% growth rate in the first five years of the crisis.

5, the issue of global governance has become more prominent.

The financial crisis has exposed many malpractices in the international financial system. Taking the London summit of G20 as a symbol, the process of accelerating the establishment of a new international financial system has begun, and a series of readjustment will be made in strengthening financial supervision, promoting the diversification of international currency, and increasing the voice of developing countries in international financial institutions.

At the same time, the international community is paying more and more attention to climate change. Climate change is becoming a major global concern in the world today.

The emergence of global governance issues such as the international financial system and climate change will not only provide strategic opportunities for China to restructure its voice in the international financial system, but also face greater pressure on developed countries to restrict China's development by using global climate change.

(two) the impact of the global economic adjustment on China's economic adjustment and pformation.

In the coming period, the external environment of China's economic development will be a "slow recovery of the world economy".

The global economic readjustment has made China's economic readjustment and pformation face unprecedented challenges and unprecedented opportunities.

First, the deep adjustment of the global economy has increased the pressure of China's economic slowdown, and has also increased the power of China's economic readjustment and pformation.

In the past period, the dependence of China's economic growth on external demand has been increasing, and its dependence on foreign trade has increased from 38.5% in 2001 to 64.8% in 2007. In 2008, the dependence on foreign trade declined, and remained at about 60%, due to the financial crisis.

The financial crisis has triggered the most serious economic recession since World War II, making China's export situation face unprecedented difficulties for many years, and has a wide impact on investment, consumption and employment. International trade protectionism is rising again, various restrictive measures against China's export products have increased significantly, China's export market and share stability have been significantly increased, and the adjustment of global imbalance has increased the external demand contraction and prolonged the duration.

All these indicate that continuing to rely on external demand to stimulate economic growth will face more severe challenges.

Accelerating the pformation of the mode of economic development, effectively expanding domestic demand and reducing the dependence of economic growth on exports are of great strategic significance not only for the current China's response to the financial crisis, but also for the new challenges that may arise after the adjustment of the world economic pattern.

Two, the green energy revolution has made China's technology development face greater competition pressure, and has also increased the market space of our country in the field of green economy.

In order to get rid of the impact of the financial crisis and take the road of "green recovery", developed countries have vigorously developed energy saving, environmental protection and clean energy technologies to seize the strategic commanding heights of green energy technology. After taking the lead in advancing the information technology revolution and developing the knowledge economy, the developed countries have set off a boom in developing green energy and low carbon economy.

Our country is in the acceleration period of industrialization, the development of science and technology and the condition of human capital are relatively backward, and the total consumption of energy resources and emissions is large. The green technology revolution has made our country face the severe challenge of the green energy revolution under the condition that the information technology diffusion has not yet been completed. Under the condition that the traditional industrial energy saving and emission reduction technology pformation has not yet been completed, it will face enormous pressure to develop the low carbon economy.

At the same time, after years of development, China's industrial base and market conditions are no longer the same. If properly handled, seize opportunities and achieve technological breakthroughs, we can win new and bigger space in the field of green energy market.

Three, the "re industrialization" of developed countries and the return to industry will squeeze the market space of our products and increase the power of industrial pformation and upgrading.

The international financial crisis has prompted the western developed countries to reflect on the past development pattern of "de industrialization", and the trend of "re industrialization" and "return to the real economy" has emerged.

"Reindustrialization" is not a return to the traditional industrial sector, but through the support of the government, the revival of traditional industries on the basis of new technologies, and the acceleration of the development of new industries such as green energy, biological medicine, new materials, aerospace and so on.

China should enhance its international competitiveness in traditional industries, and strive for market space in emerging industries. We must change the mode of industrial development relying on factor inputs, strive to enhance the capability of independent innovation and enhance the quality of workers, promote the development of emerging strategic industries, and enhance the international competitiveness of China's industries.

Four, the promotion of China's international status is conducive to playing a greater role on the world stage, and will also be under pressure to shoulder more international obligations and responsibilities.

With China's share of the global economy and its contribution to global economic growth, especially in response to the international financial crisis, we have taken the lead in achieving economic recovery and actively participated in promoting the reform of the international monetary and financial system, and advocated the establishment of a more balanced and mutually restrictive international monetary system. By strengthening regional and bilateral currency swap arrangements and trying to trade RMB settlement, we effectively promoted the process of RMB regionalization internationalization, which brought historic opportunities to enhance China's international status and increase its voice in the international community.

At the same time, the international community calls for our country to bear the responsibility of binding emission reduction responsibilities.

In the field of countering terrorism, nuclear proliferation, controlling epidemic diseases and increasing assistance to the least developed countries, it is also under pressure to shoulder more obligations and responsibilities.

To sum up, in the coming period, the world economic growth will slow down, and the international economic environment will undergo extensive and profound changes. The interactive relationship between China and the world economy will be significantly enhanced. Pushing forward the new round of economic adjustment and pformation is not only a need to cope with the changes in the international environment and enhance the initiative of our country, but also a strategic requirement for promoting a balanced development of the global economy, creating a favorable external environment and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation as a fast growing country.