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Best Retail Expansion Point

2011/9/20 13:00:00 36

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Retail is a key area of global investment. In recent years, new market Retail investment has always been a hot area. Corney recently released the best developing country index suitable for global retail expansion in 2011. Data show that South America has become the most attractive investment destination for global retailers due to sustained economic development and investment fatigue.

The global retail development index (GRDI), based on 25 variable factors, such as economic and political risk, retail market attractiveness, retail market saturation, GDP gains and retail gains, makes a ranking of the attractiveness of retail expansion in emerging countries, and provides an investment route reference for retailers to determine the priorities of their global development strategy.

The rankings reflect the huge changes in the global market and their impact on emerging economies. South American countries are booming during the recession. In addition to Brazil's ranking of GRDI in 2011, Uruguay, Chile and Peru are among the top ten.

The expansion potential of Brazil's retail market is mainly due to the following aspects: first, Brazil's economic growth is expected to be good in the future, and the GDP growth rate in the next 5 years is expected to remain at a high level of 5%. Secondly, Brazil has a large population and a high degree of urbanization. Besides, Brazil will host the world cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016. Brazil The government is planning to invest heavily in infrastructure, and foreign capital inflows will also increase significantly.

Uruguay's GRDI rankings jumped from eighth last year to second this year. Chile has recovered strongly from the economic downturn in 2009, and its GRDI index has risen to third. Chile is now considered one of the most competitive markets in South America. The government issued a stimulus plan to encourage retail consumption, making Chile's GDP in 2010. Rise 5.2%, it is expected to increase by 6.1% in 2011.

Another area with the highest GRDI index in 2011 is the Middle East and North Africa. Although political turmoil may affect recent plans to enter Egypt and Tunisia, in the long run, the younger population in this region (more than 60% of the population is 15-39 years old) may promote stronger economic stability and promote world economic integration. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are expected to remain stable in the future.

China ranked first in the 2010 GRDI index. China slipped to sixth this year. There is no doubt that the trend of China's sustained economic prosperity will not change. In 2010, China's GDP grew by 10.3%, and in 2011 it was expected to be between 9% and 10%. The size of China's retail market is US $2 trillion and 100 billion, about half of that in the US. Although the high inflation rate has weakened consumer confidence to some extent, consumers still have personal income level and employment. prospect Take a positive view. The Chinese government has formulated a plan to start domestic demand and advocate the transfer of resources to domestic consumption, which will lead to an annual increase of 100 billion US dollars in domestic consumption expenditure.

The main reason for the decline in China's GRDI ranking this year is that the high degree of saturation in the retail market gives people a sense of investment exhaustion. Besides, the trend of population aging is also a source of concern for retailers with willingness to invest. Investment in China's retail market is exhausting, which contains the following two aspects.

First, after many years of opening up, there are many foreign retailers in China's retail market. Not only in Beijing, Shanghai and other first tier cities, their tentacles have already reached two or three line cities or even rural markets, which has led to a high degree of saturation and high competition in the Chinese retail market. Under the attack of foreign capital and local retailers, China's retail market integration The trend of mergers is continuing.

Second, although China's retail market has great potential for development, it will be more and more difficult to succeed in China. Success in China means to do things in Chinese way, and simply transplant the original operation mode will not work. The best example is the closing of its best buy brand store by best buy, the US electrical appliance retailer.

The GRDI investigation of Kearney has been going on for 10 years. In the past 10 years, the retail market in developing countries has changed greatly: the population has increased by 11%, while the retail area has increased from 40 million square meters to 130 million square meters. In this process, all regions opened up to the global retail industry at different times, which led to a round of retail expansion boom.

Research shows that different countries have different levels of development and different risk / earnings conditions, which requires retailers to make customized plans and provide appropriate market portfolios. Short-term Risk and longer-term growth. Global retail expansion is a portfolio game. Only by adopting the best combination of state, retail format and operation mode can we win long-term success.