Experts Predict That CPI Growth Will Exceed 6% In September.

Since September, the price of food continues to rise slightly, driven by the consumption factors of the Mid Autumn Festival and other festivals.

A number of analysts said yesterday that the CPI is still rising from the link, but with the rise of the tail factor, CPI will gradually decline after September.

Considering the increasing benefits of controlling inflation, suggestions are made.

September will exceed 6%

According to the price monitoring data released by the National Bureau of statistics, since September, the main food prices in 50 cities of the country have generally increased slightly, and the more obvious foods include beef, mutton, fruits and so on.

Pork prices earlier fell slightly.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the price of edible agricultural products (14.40,0.00,0.00%) has increased in recent years, but the increase has narrowed after the Mid Autumn Festival.

Guo Hai securities (17.09, -0.39, -2.23%) (micro-blog) believes that after mid autumn festival food

Tang Jianwei, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications (4.43, -0.09, -1.99%) Financial Research Center, believes that two factors may lead to higher food prices in September. However, the rise in pork prices is on the basis of early fall, and the Kanoue O factor is gradually weakening. The price index is expected to remain unchanged in September, but it will remain high.

However, Societe Generale (12.31, -0.42, -3.30%) (micro-blog) chief economist Lu political commissar (micro-blog) believes that, because of the general trend of food prices, even if the tail factor is declining, CPI will probably rebound to around 6.3% again in September, and then it will decline in October.

The fourth quarter will be slow.

Song Guoqing, a professor at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said on Saturday that China's CPI is still running at a high level of over 6% at the 2011 China macro economic forecast autumn forum. Controlling inflation will remain the focus of next regulation.

"In the case of increasing grain harvest in summer, the autumn grain output forecast in China is also more optimistic this year.

Moreover, the continued weakening of the European and American economies and the fall in international commodity prices are more favorable for China to control inflation.

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities (11.67, -0.42, -3.47%) (micro-blog) said that there are more favorable factors for slowing inflation.

He believes that the price of food is still rising in two or three months, but in the long run, the impact of food price factors on inflation will gradually weaken.

Fourth quarter CPI will drop to around 5%, and it will continue to fall below 4% next year, or even to 3% or so.

Monetary policy can be moderately relaxed.

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's office, said that the effect of the regulatory policy had begun to show, and the influence of the tail factor was gradually weakening. Now inflation has entered the downward channel, and the fourth quarter price fall will be more obvious.

Song Guoqing said that taking into account the current favorable conditions for controlling inflation, the relatively tight monetary policy since the first half of this year can now be moderately relaxed.

"This kind of relaxation should be moderate, rather than a substantial relaxation as it was during the economic crisis of 2008."

Song Guoqing emphasized.