European Debt Crisis Stirs China's Foreign Trade

Though starting from the middle of the year, the market has gradually become European debt US debt and even the dark clouds of Japanese debt. Shroud There is growing concern over the slowdown in overseas economies, but the current international trade situation that reflects the real economy is not affected.

However, the growing debt crisis in Europe has made the foreign trade enterprises that have thought that the second half of the year will get better. So, will these enterprises recur the memory of 2008? From a higher level, how will China's trade and investment situation change? All this is the key to China's economy. Transformation What's the connection?

　　 Strained strings of foreign trade enterprises

Yang Xiaochuan, deputy manager of the Limited by Share Ltd, the world's largest manufacturer of insurance powder and the largest insurance powder exporter Liu Hua group, Guangdong chemical chemical Limited by Share Ltd sales company, has begun to feel the pressure. He once judged that in the second half of this year there will be a "cautious optimism" callback, but now he has removed the word "optimism".

This is a typical general trading enterprise. Its main customers are newsprint, textile and chemical printing and dyeing industry, almost occupying the export share of all China's insurance powder to Europe. More than half of the company's products are exported, and the rest are domestic. For export The European and American markets account for more than half of the market, and the European market accounts for about 5% of the total market share.

The two largest purchasing seasons from the European and American markets include: back to school and christmas new year, both in the second half of the year. As usual, the export peak should begin in August and last until the end of 10. However, Yang Xiaochuan now judges that this peak can only last until the end of 9. What worries him now is that the orders from the EU continue to decline. From the whole year, it is estimated that the 20%~30% will decline. He is worried about the impact of the current European debt crisis. "If EU countries want to adjust their policies, they should either reduce government budgets or raise more taxes, which will have a negative impact on demand."

"Some buyers will order 200 tons at the beginning of the year, but they will eventually change to 150 ~160 tons, and extend the parking time of 6~7 months." Yang Xiaochuan explained to reporters, "I generally feel that the situation is worse now than in 2009. On the one hand, buyers are not confident enough now, they are cautious about buying, they are afraid to buy more, go back to stock pressure, and on the other hand, the euro depreciated more quickly in the recent period. Because of the rising inflation factor and labor cost, the price of Chinese products is increasing, and EU buyers are reluctant to buy more.

Xiao Youyuan, general manager of GREE electric Limited by Share Ltd's overseas sales company, has yet to feel the impact of the European debt crisis. This year 1~8 month, the European market share of this industry leading enterprises accounted for 20%~25%, compared with last year, sales increased by more than 10%. But now the situation has aroused his memory on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. Xiao Youyuan is worried that the European debt crisis will start to have a negative impact on enterprises after September.

A few years ago, the financial crisis began to affect GREE electric products until the middle of 2009. By the end of 2009, 10~12 month began to enter the most difficult period. The number of foreign customers was significantly reduced, and orders fell by 20%~30%. This situation lasted until the second half of 2010.

"The pessimism of the global economy caused by the European debt crisis, first of all, is market confidence, which will make the orders of customers more conservative. If the economy continues to be pessimistic this year, it will not only delay the orders placed by customers, but also affect the subsequent orders. But I initially estimated that the final result would not be as serious as imagined. Xiao Youyuan said.

These are two typical export enterprises of China to Europe. According to the materials provided by the international trade and Economic Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, the products exported to EU countries are mainly concentrated in mechanical and electrical products, labor intensive textiles and raw materials, furniture and toys. {page_break}

　 Export impact is limited.

It is still a matter of time before the European sovereign debt crisis and the international trade of the real economy are affected. And the depth and breadth, at present, are not as good as the financial crisis a few years ago.

Li Xunlei, chief economist and chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities Company, and Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, believe that the current market is too worried about European debt, US debt and Japanese debt problems. But the global economy is probably only a slow decline in the short term. It is not like the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 that has broken the short term debt chain. Therefore, it will take some time to transmit to the real economy.

Yao Ling, a researcher at the European Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told our correspondent that the countries affected by the European debt crisis, such as Greece, have little or no bilateral trade with China. "Now the EU is fully prepared for the sovereign debt crisis. The worst case is the default of some Greek bonds, but it does not go to the national bankruptcy, which has little impact on China's exports to Europe.

Take Germany, the largest trading partner in the EU, for example. According to statistics from the European Union statistics bureau, the bilateral trade volume between China and Germany in 2011 1~3 was 43 billion 50 million US dollars, an increase of 20.6%. Among them, Germany exported 21 billion 560 million US dollars to China, an increase of 30.4%; imports from China, US $21 billion 500 million, an increase of 12.1%; the German side's surplus was US $60 million, compared with the deficit in the same period last year. China is Germany's sixth largest export market and the third largest source of imports.

Germany's main imports from China are electromechanical products, textiles and raw materials, furniture and toys miscellaneous products. In 2011 1~3 total imports amounted to 14 billion 50 million US dollars, accounting for 65.4% of Germany's total imports from China. In addition to the above products, transport equipment, base metals and products are also the major categories of goods imported from Germany (category HS), accounting for over 5% of their imports. On the whole, imports of goods from China mostly increased, and only the import of transport equipment declined, a decrease of 29.6%. The growth rate of imports from Germany also showed a downward trend, which was lower than its total import growth by nearly 8 percentage points.

According to Yao Ling analysis, on the one hand, the European Union and the rest of the world are taking active preventive measures; on the other hand, the core countries that may be closely related to China's trade, such as Italy, still have certain industrial foundation and competitiveness, and will not eventually break down. The core trading partners, Germany and France slowed down in the second quarter, but expected to stabilize and rebound in the second half of the year. Therefore, the European debt crisis has little impact on China's exports to Europe this year.

She believes that the situation is much better than in 2008. Through the baptism of two years during the financial crisis, China's foreign trade transformation and the improvement of its internal competitiveness have made some progress and will not return to the situation of a sharp decline two years ago.

"Now from the government to enterprises, there is psychological preparation for coping with the crisis. We can expect the current tightening policy to remain stable and enterprises will continue to transform and upgrade." She said. {page_break}

　　 Trade frictions peak

However, another consequent negative impact will also be inevitable: the new round of trade friction is approaching.

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters at a regular press conference in September that the debt crisis intensified in Europe and China, which is bound to have certain impact on Sino EU trade and economic cooperation. Apart from the further weakening of domestic consumption and investment caused by the further slowdown in economic growth, it may directly affect bilateral trade growth. Another point is that with the intensification of the crisis within the EU, pressure will increase and competition with China's industry will become more intense. Bilateral trade frictions may intensify, which will be unfavorable for the development of China EU trade and economic relations.

The latest example comes from August 11th, and the Ministry of commerce website released an early warning message from the commerce department's business office in Italy. The European Union is preparing to fight against "cheap goods from China" through high tariffs.

The Ministry of Commerce's business office in Italy said that the European economy has been gradually pushed into the cold abyss by the European debt crisis this year. However, the trade between China and Europe has increased rapidly. With the competitive advantage gained by labor costs and so on, more and more Chinese exports have been made, but the EU has also resisted more and more.

The warning said that this move is not groundless. In the last 5 years of the EU's new strategic blueprint for Global trade in November last year, it emphasized the competitiveness of trade, hoping to promote EU economic growth through trade and solve the problem of high unemployment.

Eric Emerson, a partner in charge of trade and antitrust at Washington headquarters in Steptoe & Johnson LLP, told our reporter that in the next 9 to 12 months, China's export enterprises will face a peak of anti-dumping and countervailing. He suggested that Chinese enterprises may need to turn to more dependent on domestic demand and consumption. {page_break}

　　 Slow growth in investment in China

Compared with the worries of foreign trade enterprises, another obvious sign is the EU's investment in China.

Starting in April of this year, the amount of foreign investment that the United States actually invested in China began to decline about 20%, while the 27 countries in the European Union began to invest more than 20% from the previous year's growth from May, and rapidly slowed down to the single digit growth. The latest figures released by China's Ministry of Commerce show that in the month of 1~8 this year, the 27 EU countries actually invested $4 billion 562 million in foreign investment in China, an increase of only 3.28% over the same period last year.

This can not help but recall the memory of China's attracting foreign investment for 10 consecutive months since the financial crisis began in October 2008.

Reports from the The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) show that US investment in China has been declining this year, but the amount of investment from Western Europe will continue to rise in the Chinese market. "Boston"

The report points out that although the wage growth rate of manufacturing workers in Europe is slowing down this year, because of the lack of flexibility of the trade union, the labor market and the financial system reform will be difficult, resulting in a further decline in productivity. Besides, Europe does not have much trade barriers to offshore industries, and will still rely on China's cheap labor force to maintain its upward trend in investment in China.

Ding Kai, Secretary General of the China EU Chamber of Commerce, also pointed out to our reporter that the cost advantage of the Chinese market for many EU enterprises has been relegated to the second place, and that the huge domestic demand market close to the mainland of China and Asia has become the biggest comparative advantage. EU enterprises in China are generally optimistic. "Although they are faced with the rising cost of labor and raw materials, the pressure of RMB exchange rate and the challenges brought by the regulatory environment, they are still optimistic about the huge business opportunities brought about by the" 12th Five-Year plan "on the development of service industries. He said.

He Manqing, director of the research center of MNCs of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the negative growth of EU's investment in China will not be excluded in the fourth quarter or early next year. And even if it happens, it is not necessarily a bad thing.

"The European debt crisis will inevitably restrict the financing capacity of enterprises, thus further restricting the ability of enterprises to invest in China." "However, compared with other countries, the overall situation of China's attracting foreign investment is good, even if it slipped, it is not necessarily a bad thing for China in the period of overall structural adjustment and transformation," she said.

In fact, this is also consistent with the trend of global capital flows. It is worth noting that foreign direct investment (FDI) flows more from developing countries is also a trend. According to the latest report issued by the joint China World Trade Center Development Organization (UNCTAD), in 2010, the developed countries, as the main body of foreign investment, also had a significant downward trend, which has dropped from 90% or more before 2003 to about 70%.