China'S Central Parity Of RMB Is In The Opposite Direction, And High Expectations Are Emerging.

Affected by the continued rebound in the US dollar, the offshore RMB market has emerged in recent days.

Risk factors become the main tone.

Recently, the expectation of RMB depreciation is gradually rising.

Since last Thursday, the overseas non deliverable forward market (NDF) has seen the expectation of RMB devaluation within the two-year period. This is the first time that the RMB devaluation has been expected since the financial crisis.

Among them, the 1 year period of RMB to the US dollar NDF and the central parity of RMB.

A sharp rebound in the US dollar index is considered by the market as the main reason for the sudden devaluation of the RMB in the NDF market.

From the end of August, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, and yesterday's intraday price hit a new high of 78.86 points in 8 months.

E Yongjian, a researcher at the Bank of Communications (4.43, -0.09, -1.99%) Financial Research Center, told reporters that in the context of the effective solution of the European debt crisis, the US dollar continued to rebound. Some institutions bought dollars for hedge purposes, making the sensitive NDF market more volatile.

Affected by this, the dollar has also become a "meat and potatoes".

Hongkong's offshore renminbi (CNH) fell to 6.5 last week, and the difference between the mainland's RMB spot market and the mainland's mainland market was 1.9%, setting the largest exchange rate since August 2010, allowing Hongkong to trade.

Regarding this, Liu Dongliang, a foreign exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank (micro-blog), said that hedging has become the only focus of the market, and the US dollar and US Treasury bonds continue to benefit.

Judging from the two trading days after last week, the expected depreciation of the renminbi in the near future is still very large.

"Mainly in Hongkong, the pressure on RMB selling is greater, and everyone is buying dollars."

No change in the year of RMB appreciation

The overnight rise of the US dollar did not bring a slowdown in the appreciation of the renminbi.

Despite the expected depreciation of the RMB in overseas markets, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate continued to soar on Monday, jumping 105 basis points, reporting 6.3735, and continuing to refresh the new record high since the reform.

"Monday's early mid high price may indicate that the monetary authorities may be sending signals to the market that" the renminbi will not depreciate ".

The Ministry of Finance and banking of China Merchants Bank pointed out in a recent report.

The situation of RMB exchange rate deviating from home and abroad may continue for some time. The RMB market will maintain a slight gradual appreciation trend in the domestic market, and there may still be a devaluation expectation in the offshore market. This expectation may even further increase with the strength of the US dollar.

For future trends, market analysts believe that the long-term upward trend of the renminbi is still blocked. It remains to be seen that in the short term, the NDF market will remain under pressure in the global market.

From Liu Dongliang's point of view, from the technical point of view, the US index is in a good position. Considering that the environment is still deteriorating, it is only a matter of time for the us to break through the 80 pass.

"But the renminbi will not depreciate until the teenager. At most, it will slow down or remain unchanged."