Fluctuating Cotton Prices, Cotton Farmers' Apprehension And Confusion

In the year of 2010/2011, the volatile cotton prices were deeply hit by the main players in the market, and cotton farmers were inevitably hurt.

At the moment, it is the busy season for cotton picking. The reporters approached the cotton farmers at the forefront of the cotton industry chain, and they broke their fingers together to calculate the cost accounts, and felt the unease and confusion they showed.

Cotton farmers are generally reluctant to sell.

At noon on October 3rd, the reporter came to the village of Ma Yao Kong in filial town, Jindong District. cotton field Several cotton farmers are picking cotton in the rain. I asked my busy uncle how it rained and picked cotton. Aunt looked at my idler standing on the ridge of the field. Some disappointed, "my wife and I saw you coming over and thought that we had come to pick up the cotton. But once you opened your mouth, I knew that I had guessed wrong. If you even cotton white, you must pick it up quickly. If you pick it up later, it will turn black and you don't know. How can it be cotton?"

Aunt told reporters that last year cotton purchase price up to 13 yuan per kilogram, the family's 1 acres of cotton sold nearly 4000 yuan, this year planted more than two acres. At this time of the year, people who came to buy Cotton in an endless stream could pick up the cotton from the middle of September this year. Only two old customers came to the village tentatively to quote a price, and did not open the scale to buy it, so that she and her wife had no idea. Aunt said: "I heard that this year's purchase price is 9 yuan per kilogram, which is 2 yuan cheaper than last year. Why did it fall so much that no one has bought it yet?"

And the villagers in Ma Yao Kong Village chatted about planting cotton, and we all had a year's experience. cotton The price trend is uncertain. "Price instability is the biggest headache for our cotton growers. Cotton prices have gone up and down, making everyone's hearts in a mess. I don't know what to do." 66 year old villager ho has said that for many years, many cotton farmers have the habit of selling cotton, but no matter how expensive they are, pick them up and put them away first. This year cotton prices are quite different from last year, and we are more reluctant to sell them.

　 The cost of "reducing cotton" is not high.

Ma Yao Kong village is located on the banks of the Yiwu river. It is the place where Confucius descended. In the eyes of the sun, there are two big treasure in the horse waist hole village: one is the cultural wall, the other is the cotton. On the wall of culture there are stories of village origin, quotations from Confucius, famous aphorisms and moral slogans. Influenced by traditional culture, Ma Yayun village has become a well-known village of filial piety.

In the memory of what day, the horse waist hole village was identified more than 30 years ago. Half cotton area After that, cotton began to grow. Nowadays, there are few species of cotton in the whole cotton area 10 kilometers away from low farmland, where more than half of the cultivated land is used to grow cotton. "It is not easy for young people to earn money outside. When cotton is planted, it is not tired, but we old people are able to do it. They do not need their children to bring money back, so we all call it" Lightening cotton ".

He has counted fingers on a reporter's fingers: "an acre cotton field can produce 300 kilograms of seed cotton in normal years, and if there are 9 yuan per kilogram of seed cotton, there will be 2700 yuan income. The national cotton subsidy is almost enough to buy cotton seeds. Fertilizer prices have risen a bit this year. Carbon ammonia has risen from 28 yuan per 50 kg last year to 39 yuan, and urea has risen from 94 yuan to 125 yuan, so that the cost of fertilizer per mu of cotton fields has increased from less than 500 yuan last year to 600 yuan this year. In addition, cotton is used once every half a month, and it costs about 150 yuan per mu. Together with the two items, the cost of one mu of cotton is about 750 yuan. The two old people can maintain their daily expenses only by planting two mu of cotton, plus the old age allowance provided by the government.

Compared with the cost account of Lao he, Zheng Zhaoyang of the town extension station of filial town has a lower cost: the cost of fertilizer for an acre cotton field is 400 yuan, the cost of pesticide is 80 yuan to 120 yuan, and the cost of physicochemical is about 500 yuan. Zheng Zhaoyang, who often looks at pests and diseases for cotton farmers, says that farmers' enthusiasm for growing cotton is not high at present, mainly because they are too time-consuming to harvest cotton and only pick cotton. Only one person can pick up 15 kilograms of cotton a day. Young people go to town or go to town to find a factory at random. There are 80 yuan wages per day. Therefore, most of the workers who work in cotton fields are left behind elderly and women. They are nicknamed "3860 troops".

　　 Cotton prices affect all nerves

Cotton farmers wait and see. Buyers are watching. Cotton textile companies are watching. A cotton mill was not far away from the horse's waist hole village. When the reporter went to know the relevant circumstances, he was politely refused. The owner of a small shop nearby told reporters that the factory did not seem to directly buy cotton from the cotton growers, mainly dealing with cotton purchasers. "The workers who often come to the store to buy things say that the days in the factory are not very good."

The cotton buyer, Lin Yu Wen, said that cotton prices in early September were 9.4 yuan per kilogram and later reduced to 9 yuan. Cotton spinning enterprises still had high quality requirements for seed cotton, so he suspended the purchase from September 21st. "In the past few years, we went from village to village to buy cotton seeds from cotton farmers, and sold them to cotton mills or large acquisition stations to a certain amount. In the past two years, cotton will be put in for a period of time, making a bad time to earn higher profits. Last year cotton prices went up from 8.2 yuan per kilogram, up to 13.8 yuan per kilogram. Many buyers look at the price and go higher every day. They want to wait for a higher price, and they miss the best time to sell. Cotton prices began to drop in the first fifteen months of the year, the lowest price being 8 yuan per kilogram. As far as I know, more than 60% of cotton purchasers have suffered varying degrees of losses, many of whom are forced to switch careers.

According to the plan for the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2011, the China cotton reserve management company will open the store in accordance with the standard class (grade 3) lint 19800 yuan / ton storage price (equivalent to 8.4 yuan per kilogram of seed cotton). Lin Yuwen believes that if this is not the case, the cotton price may have hit a new low in recent years. Cotton farmers can not recognize this storage price. They think that agricultural products and agricultural materials have risen in price. Clothes and quilts have increased by 20% to 30%, and cotton has to go up.

The head of Jinhua Yinfeng cotton cocoon storage and retrieval Co., Ltd. said that this year cotton purchase was cautious in all aspects, and it was afraid of losing money and the cotton growers were reluctant to sell. Last year, the acquisition of cotton at a high price allowed some cotton enterprises to pay a lot. It is expected that this year's purchase period will be more dispersed than in previous years, and the possibility of centralized selling is unlikely. {page_break}

It is understood that this year the world's cotton fields increased, cotton resources are abundant, domestic cotton planting area growth, generally good growth, the total output will be higher than last year, domestic supply and demand gap will be reduced. At present, some textile enterprises have difficulty in production and operation, and there is no sign of improvement. There is little possibility that cotton prices will rise substantially in the next few months.

　　 Reporter's notes

When cotton growers are hoarding cotton, China's textile industry is going through a catastrophe this year. The industry generally judges that the difficulty of the textile industry even exceeds that of the 2008 international financial crisis. The sluggish exports, sluggish domestic demand and the sluggish textile industry in the upper and lower reaches explain why China's cotton prices will plummet in a sluggish season from 6 to August.

However, these information and analysis are obviously not conscious and capable for the cotton growers who take the "3860 forces" as the main body. They do not have the national protection mechanism, nor do they understand futures hedging. In order to realize the sustainable development of cotton industry, we hope that the state's regulation and control on the cotton market will be bigger and more timely and accurate, so that prices will be more stable. The adoption of protective price can reduce the price fluctuation, and make cotton farmers clearly anticipate the profits and reduce the risk of planting cotton.