Trend Analysis Of Nylon Filament Market In The Third Quarter Of 2011

First, nylon market price in the third quarter.

In the third quarter of 2011, nylon Silk prices generally showed an upward trend, or around 3.6%. At the beginning of July, the price of nylon FDY 40D/12F in Fujian Changle market was 34750 yuan / ton. After that, it continued to rise steadily. At the end of July, the demand for the downstream was sluggish, and it was once weak. In late August, because of the decline in raw material prices, nylon yarn also had a downward trend. With the gradual stabilization of the price of caprolactam, the price of nylon yarn remained stable. At the end of September, the price was 36000 yuan / ton.

Two. Dynamic over time

1, profit factor

This quarter Sinopec, Nanjing Oriental, Baling Petrochemical and other caprolactam production enterprises have raised the factory price.

Sinopec's caprolactam settlement price in August, of which Baling Petrochemical implemented 28500 yuan / ton (superior quality, solid self extraction), and Shijiazhuang chemical fiber carried out 28400 yuan / ton (superior quality, solid self extraction), compared with July settlement price increased by 700 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam settled in September, of which Baling Petrochemical was 28800 yuan / ton (superior quality, solid state self introduction), and Shijiazhuang chemical fiber was 28700 yuan / ton (superior quality, solid self extraction), which was 300-400 yuan / ton higher than that of August settlement.

Caprolactam contract price rise in Asia October

The contract price for caprolactam originating in Asia in October was $3450-3500 / tonne CFR Northeast Asia. Since June, the price of caprolactam in Asia has been on the rise, though downstream demand is relatively tight because of relative tight supply. Weak from fatigue 。 The Asian caprolactam contract settlement price in September was 3450 US dollars / ton CFR Northeast Asia.

The rise of nylon chip market is affected by the rising price of caprolactam, and the price of nylon chips has been pushed up. In this quarter, the conventional price of nylon chips rose by about 4.2%, and the price was 29900 yuan / ton at the end of September.

2, negative factors

Asian caprolactam spot prices fell in mid August

Worried about the sharp decline in the economy, the purchase of caprolactam spot tire cord customers frequently said that the spot price of caprolactam in Asia was $3550 / tonne CFR in China. The contract price for caprolactam in August was $3450 / tonne CFR Northeast Asia.

Domestic nylon fiber output increased in July

In July 2011, the total output of nylon fibers was 137 thousand tons in China, and 120 thousand tons in July 2010, an increase of 14.2% over the same period last year. Total output in 2011 was 930 thousand tons in 1-7 months, and 837 thousand tons in 1-7 months in 2010, an increase of 11.1% over the same period last year.

Extension of anti-dumping duty on India nylon filament yarn

In August 9, 2011, the India Customs issued Notice No. 73/2011 to extend the anti-dumping duty period for nylon filament yarn originating in or from China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and North Korea (including less than 67 Taylor nylon monofilament, but excluding high strength nylon monofilament or fishing net nylon line). Anti-dumping The implementation period of the tax is extended to November 28, 2011.

Three, influencing factors analysis

1, cost situation

The price of caprolactam in the raw materials increased by about 2.6% this quarter. The price rose steadily from July to the beginning of August, the highest price was around 28400 yuan / ton, and the price dropped slightly in the middle and late 8, and then it was a rising trend. By the end of September, the international oil price plummeted. Under this influence, the market of the US gold plate was mild, and the offer was scarce. The atmosphere of the lactam RMB spot market was not good enough, and there were few transactions. At the end of September, the price was about 27600 yuan / ton. Affected by the price shock of caprolactam, the price trend of nylon chips is volatile. In terms of conventional spinning, the price increase is around 4.2% in the current quarter. The highest price is about 30300 yuan / ton, and the price is about 29900 yuan / ton at the end of September. In terms of high-speed spinning, the price increase was around 3.4% in the current quarter, the highest price was around 30700 yuan / ton, and the price was about 30200 yuan / ton at the end of September. The rising price of raw materials has led nylon enterprises to raise their prices to cope with cost pressures.

1. Supply situation

Quanzhou Tianyu, Asia Pacific Chemical spinning and Mei Bang chemical fiber plant has been put into operation in 7-8. The 7-8 month is the traditional off-season for textile industry. The production and marketing are flat. The enthusiasm of factories is not high enough to maintain low production. In September, the factory "Kim Gu", which was originally expected, did not arrive. The factory has been hovering around the profit and loss margin, and the operating rate has been maintained at around 7. According to a businessman, many small scale nylon yarn manufacturers are turning to polyester production because of the shortage of raw material prices and the lack of downstream demand. The market supply will be tightened.

1, demand situation

Textile enterprises in this quarter are still affected by the tight funds. Coupled with the so-called "seven light, eight turn, nine flourishing" state in the fabric market, the demand for textile enterprises in February is limited, and the price of nylon yarn keeps rising. In September, fabric sales gradually improved, and market demand began to enlarge. Even though it did not achieve the expected effect of nylon yarn enterprises, shipments were also rising, and downstream demand began to improve.

Four, conclusion and Prospect

The price of nylon yarn is mainly determined by the trend of raw materials. Price But the overall trend is still at a high level, and there will be a period of consolidation in the future. The market of nylon yarn will gradually become stable, and the increase of fabric demand will further increase the shipment of nylon yarn, and the price of nylon yarn will increase. However, compared with the high level at the beginning of this year, there is still a great difference. Although the market will be better or better, nylon yarn will not return to the most spectacular period this year. Yu Lina, a nylon analyst at business and Textile Division, believes that the price of caprolactam will decline at the end of September due to the fall in oil prices. It is expected that the nylon yarn will be slightly adjusted in the near future, but the purchase of downstream will support the price trend of nylon yarn, and the overall stability will be the main.

Five, related listed companies

Yiwu Hua Ding (601113): the main business of the company is to engage in R & D, production, processing and sales of nylon filament.

Mei Da shares (000782): is the first country to introduce nylon 6 production equipment for large-scale production of the plant, set nylon 6 polymerization, spinning, weaving and printing and dyeing as one of the large-scale modern enterprises.

Huarun Jinhua (000810): the company has the world's most advanced cotton textile equipment, with an annual output of 18000 tons of yarn and thread, of which 10000 tons of high-grade combed yarn, cotton production capacity of 35 million meters.