The A Share Is Entangled With The &Nbsp Factor; The Number Of Empty Agencies Is More Than That.

Overnight, the US and European stock markets are big.

From the point of view of the institutional view of the Securities Daily, the Market Research Center shows that the number of today's bullish institutions is significantly reduced, only 22, accounting for 34.92%, while the bearish organizations have risen to 38.1%. In addition, Ping Ping's institutions have reached 17, accounting for 26.98%.

Faced with the rapid fall of yesterday's market, analysts believe that at present, in Germany, the EU will not introduce a decisive crisis solution to continue to ferment; huge financing will lead to excessive blood loss in the market; however, the subtle emergence of domestic CPI inflection point will bring new hope to the market, and the complex domestic and international factors will play a common role, and the future trend of the market will be more uncertain.

There are also market participants believe that the stock index has broken the 20 day moving average, the 5 day moving average, the 10 day moving average, the volume of energy compared to the previous two days trading volume has been enlarged, the overall trend is back to the down channel, restart the market need to get ready.

Exacerbation of the fall trend

The rate of rise and fall is only 6.97%.

Yesterday, the Shanghai composite index opened 2423.28 points, the highest 2425.65 points, the lowest 2378.67 points, closed at 2383.49 points, down 56.91 points, or 2.33% points, and traded at 69 billion 339 million yuan, up 20.162% from Wednesday, 50 shares of Shanghai A shares rose only, 837 fell only; the Shenzhen Stock Index opened at the 10442.57 points, the highest point of invasion, the lowest point of the merger, reported a decline in the number of points, a drop, a turnover of RMB yuan, an increase of less than that on Wednesday, a rise in Shenzhen stock market A shares, only a drop, and a rise in the ratio of A shares in the Shenzhen stock market.

From the industry sector, 31 sectors of the industry fell across the board.

The biggest decline was the sharp rebound in the early rebound of the brokerage sector, which fell by 4.67% yesterday, which will swallow up more than 60% of the Changyang line on Tuesday. The fall of the brokerage sector reflects investors' concerns about the future trend.

Other sectors, building materials, non-ferrous metals and other sectors also fell the top, the decline was more than 4%, in addition, the decline in 3%-4% between the industry sector reached 8 categories.

From the decline of the plate, the degree of yesterday's callback is far greater than that of the Shanghai stock index in September 22nd by 2.78%.

A shares in the limit of 12 stocks, indicating that the air side energy is higher.

From the perspective of capital flow, A shares showed a net outflow of funds as a whole yesterday, with a total net outflow of 4 billion 597 million yuan.

In the 31 industry sectors, only engineering buildings, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (21 million 414 thousand and 100 yuan) showed a net inflow. Although construction works showed a net inflow of 271 million 181 thousand and 300 yuan, the total inflow of a Chinese hydropower company reached 366 million 589 thousand yuan, and the total inflow of other stocks in the plate was negative.

In the 11 industries, such as brokerages, nonferrous metals, chemical and chemical fibers, coal and oil, real estate, building materials, machinery, banking, steel, electronic information, pportation and so on, the outflow of large single capital exceeds 200 million yuan, and the capital outflow of the brokerage board reaches 602 million yuan.

After removing new shares, the first five stocks of A shares with large net capital inflows were: Shan Xia Hu (34 million 431 thousand and 800 yuan), Xiang Jiang Holdings (27 million 844 thousand and 800 yuan), Lanzhou min Bai (27 million 842 thousand and 600 yuan), Tong Kun shares (26 million 923 thousand and 900 yuan), Kim shinno (22 million 717 thousand and 800 yuan), and the first five shares of net outflow are: Founder Securities (142 million 84 thousand and 900 yuan), Panzhihua Iron and steel vanadium titanium (106 million 103 thousand and 800 yuan), Haitong Securities (88 million 188 thousand and 400 yuan), CITIC Securities (72 million 740 thousand and 300 yuan), ultrasonic Electronics (72 million 740 thousand and 300 yuan).

In terms of stock index futures, on the 18 day, the main contract IF1110 of the stock index futures opened in the air and opened down all the way. It ended down at 2586.2 points, down 66.2 points or 2.49%, and the turnover volume was 218165 hands in the whole day, which was reduced compared with the previous trading day.

Huaxin futures believes that the whole day's upside down again appeared yesterday, and the number of single lots has been greatly reduced.

But in the trend, it has been taking 2650 as the central axis of the 30 points, the IF1110 five week line in the 2685 line, and the early intensive trading area also appeared at 2730 up 30 points, then 2685-2700 will have important pressure.

Two bad factors

Pressure on European and American Stock Markets

On the 17 day, the three major stock indexes of New York stock market dropped by 2%, Dow fell 2.13%, NASDAQ fell 1.98%, and the S & P 500 index fell 1.94%.

The main reason is that investors are worried about the European financial situation, and data show that manufacturing activities in New York are depressed.

At the same time, European stock markets closed lower on the 17 th, due to the expected cooling of the eurozone debt crisis comprehensive solution this weekend.

The European Storck 600 index closed down 1% to 236.22.

Major regional indexes, the German DAX 30 index fell 1.8% to 5859.43 points, the French CAC 40 index fell 1.6% to 3166.06 points, the FTSE 100 index fell 0.5% to 5436.70 points in Greece, and the ASE composite index in Greece dropped to 3% points.

In this regard, Founder Securities said that the optimistic expectations of the market had been hit. Germany said that the euro zone sovereign debt crisis could not be resolved quickly. New York's manufacturing activity index was not as good as expected, which led to a sharp reduction in US stocks.

It is reported that the eurozone summit will meet in October 23rd to set a deadline for the launch of an emergency plan to resolve the debt crisis in the euro area.

But German Chancellor Merkel said he should not expect instant results, and that efforts to find solutions will surely extend to next year.

Influenced by Merkel's statement, investors' confidence has been greatly reduced.

Meanwhile, the data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on 17 may show that in October, the New York manufacturing index was negative 8.5, compared with the negative 8.8 in the previous month, and there was no significant improvement compared with the previous month, and this data for fifth consecutive months was below 0, which once again proved that the manufacturing industry that once led the US economic recovery has slowed down significantly.

To this end, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 17 said that the current global economy has entered a dangerous stage, and policymakers should take concerted and decisive actions to promote the sustained, balanced growth of the global economy.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the growth rate of the global economy from 2011 to 2012 will slow down to around 4%. At present, global economic growth is facing severe challenges. The developed economies in the group of twenty must effectively promote the medium-term fiscal consolidation plan. The euro area's banking industry should adopt a coordinated and orderly way, using resources from various public sectors and European financial stability tools to inject capital to deal with the crisis.

Three positive factors

Support market gradually improved

Under the pressure of the negative factors in the surrounding market, although the domestic A share market was adjusted yesterday, but in this pessimistic situation, we can see three positive factors and support the gradual improvement of the market.

First, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced Tuesday that gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 9.1% in the third quarter of this year, much lower than that in the two quarter.

This shows that the overheated momentum of China's economic growth has been effectively suppressed, and inflation has also been alleviated.

Experts believe that the fall of GDP in the three quarter is the response of a series of economic policies implemented by the Chinese government.

In addition, data released by the National Bureau of statistics last week showed that inflation did not rise again due to holiday factors in September. CPI rose 6.1%.

In the future, with the further weakening of the tail factors, the harvest of autumn grain and the stagnation of commodity prices in Europe and the United States, the downward trend of inflation will be established.

State Yuan Securities believes that the gradual reduction of inflationary pressure lays the foundation for the overall improvement of the market.

At the same time, Kim Pai Lin believes that on the one hand, because of the slowdown in economic growth, indicating that the regulation policy appears, it means that there will be no further introduction of new regulatory policies. That is to say, monetary policy has entered the observation period, which is conducive to the layout of long term funds.

On the other hand, it is because the economic growth rate is down, it is also conducive to the pformation of the economic structure, so as to find the investment opportunities of the economic structural pformation for the stock fund of the A share market.

Second, the financial side is undergoing subtle changes.

Dongxing Securities pointed out that first, the usury market is almost collapse, which will enable a large number of funds to face new options. A shares at a low level must be one of them, and the attractiveness of the stock market is rising in comparison with the property market, commodity markets, collectibles and other fields.

The two is the loosening of monetary tightening, which is mainly reflected by the management's help for the plight of SMEs.

From the index of money supply, in September, it really reached a low level. M2 grew by 13%, and M1 dropped to a single digit. This is the data that has not been seen for many years.

If there is a new low in the future, it is obviously unable to support the normal growth of the economy, and it needs more financial support from the non banking sector. The capital market will bear the brunt of it. We can expect the introduction of positive policies.

Although there are no signs of monetary policy turning, there are obvious changes.

It is reported that new loans in September hit a new low of 21 months, of which M2 grew by 13% year-on-year low; M1 grew 8.9% year-on-year, the first time since 2009, it has dropped to below 10%.

State yuan securities analysis, according to historical experience, M1 growth rate fell to below 10%, indicating that the A share market is close to the bottom, but I do not know how long the stock index will linger at the bottom, but the signal for gradual improvement is very clear.

Third, third quarterly report performance has been gradually launched, and the three quarterly market will start to deduce.

Starting from this week, the next three weeks will enter the peak of the three quarterly reports of the two cities listed companies. The industry expects that the three quarterly market will become the main line of the next market.

Relieve stress in concussion

Unilateral downward is expected to get rid of

Yesterday, the performance of hydropower in China was beyond the expectation of most of them.

However, Ningbo Hai Shun believes that this has not led to the popularity of the market.