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How Can Cotton Be Worried?

2011/10/24 12:54:00 14

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The cotton market spent a temporary time in September

gentle

During the period, there was a slight boost in quotations.

But since entering October, the market has been turning sharply and exhausted.

The quotation continued to decline, and textile enterprises were not active because of the tight capital chain.

industry chain

Poor operation.

Now the cotton market is like Xiao Xiao's autumn wind. How can we get a word "worry"?

Downward adjustment of cotton prices

In recent years, the price of seed cotton has been cut down in some parts of Xinjiang. The 40 linen seed cotton price in Korla area is 8.5 yuan / kg, and the daily purchase amount is more than 500 tons.

Bachu area 40 linen is 8.6 yuan / kilogram, 41 linen newspaper is in 8.7-8.8 yuan / kilogram.

Lint, this week, with a "wind vane" known as the Shandong Wei bridge, a large textile group for 3 consecutive days, the purchase price of naughty cotton, after October 15th and 16 respectively, down 4 grade lint purchase price of 200 yuan / ton and 300 yuan / ton, 17 in the morning again lowered 427 grade lint purchase price 200 yuan / ton, the current 3 grade lint purchase price remained unchanged at 19800 yuan / ton, 429 grade price was 429 yuan / ton, the price of the class was $8 yuan / ton.

Cotton fundamentals are empty

Real estate cotton affected by rainfall four and below accounted for more than 80%, cotton merchants, textile enterprises to replenish the library is very negative, the cost is not low, low price competition in the sales market is fierce, prompting the industrial chain this year to see the real estate cotton.

The overall consumption of cotton will remain weak. Cotton in Xinjiang, China will be pferred from the acquisition period to the selling period. However, the purchasing intention of textile enterprises and traders will be weak, and the pressure of sales will increase. The pressure of increasing production will appear. Enterprises are not optimistic about the future market and begin to actively pay for storage. The overall market sentiment is weak. Under such circumstances, the price of lint and seed cotton will continue to decline in the future.

at home and abroad

Macro environment

severe

1, domestic situation: domestic terminal commodity prices are running at a high level, and the inflection point has maintained a downward trend. The price of raw materials has dropped sharply under the monetary tightening of the authorities, which will form a suppressing basis for CPI data next year.

The "soft landing" has gradually become a major trend in China's active pressure economy. Therefore, the current national policy is still tight, and the stable monetary policy will not change in the short term.

2, the international situation: the macro and economic weakness in Europe and the United States is in danger of falling into recession, and consumption and speculative popularity are suppressed.

Due to the slow progress of the EU's solution to the European debt crisis, the risk aversion in the peripheral financial market is relatively high and the popularity is weak.

Outlook for the future

At present, the raw material inventory of the cotton textile industry chain is poor, and the funds are not abundant. Under the guidance of prudent psychology, the enterprises in wait-and-see situation are obviously increasing.

Storage

The main force of the mainland is limited to cost pressures.

In order to revitalize the capital, some enterprises began to increase the sales of lint, which led to a slight decline in the market paction price. However, the textile enterprises of purchasing are generally facing the problem of fund shortage and lack of purchasing power. Therefore, under the constraint of bad profits, it is expected that the probability of continued cotton fall will be larger.