Huachang Securities: Short-Term Rise Has Momentum &Nbsp; Mid-Term Inflection Point To Be Confirmed.

There are many similarities between the current market environment and the November 2008.

For example, some of the middle industries are rapidly declining, liquidity is at the bottom area, the valuation level is at the bottom, and market performance is mainly subject matter.

But there are also obvious differences, which need to be taken seriously, such as the policy shift in the second half of 2008 and the reversal of the economic cycle. The current policy is still fine-tuning, and liquidity is extremely loose at the end of 2008, and now it is only expected to change.

In the current policy adjustment and credit easing expectations, the market is similar to the four quarter of 2008. The momentum of rebound is still at the end of October, but it is difficult to confirm whether it can get out of the mid-term inflection point.

A familiar market

Compared with the end of 2008, the current market has the following four aspects:

The economy is in decline.

At present, the real economy and the end of 2008 have similar situation. First, the decline of economic growth is due to the previous tightening policy restraining the total demand level, and the demand side has a downward trend. Secondly, the trend of export decline has not stopped, the external demand caused by the external economic downturn will not continue until the first quarter of next year. Finally, from the economic inflection point, it has not bottomed out. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the bottom line is bottoming out, and the first quarter of 2009 has bottomed out in the first quarter. At present, the initial judgement is that the economy will be bottomed out in the first quarter of next year, and the two quarter will hit bottom year-on-year.

The valuation of large cap stocks is at the bottom.

The bottom of the valuation level is basically accompanied by the top of the real interest rate, and the rise in real interest rates stems from the superposition of the continuous tightening policy.

From 2008, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (2736.248,0.00,0.00%) price earnings ratio was close to 13 times in November, while the current Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 valuation is 13.37 times, which is relatively close.

However, the valuation of small cap stocks still has a big bubble, so we need to pay attention to the valuation risk of small and medium-sized shares.

Liquidity is at the bottom.

In terms of money supply M1 and M2 year-on-year level, the growth rate of M1 in November 2008 was 6.8% and M2 was 14.8%, while M1 was 8.9% and M2 was 13%, which is very close.

But in 2008, due to the policy shift and the subsequent ultra loose credit policy, M1 and M2 rose rapidly, but at present there is no such background.

Market performance is all about themes.

From the performance of the securities market, the theme investment was active at the end of 2008, such as RMB appreciation, integration of central enterprises, military industry and medicine.

From the current market, investors tend to think that the current market is similar to the end of 2008, the theme investment is brilliant and fast, such as environmental protection, software, new energy vehicles, high-end equipment and other strategic emerging industries investment opportunities.