Demand Is Not Strong, Becoming The Number One Killer In Polyester Market.

If 1~9 months

In recent one or two months, the reporter has heard many chemical fiber enterprises reflect

On November 10th ~11, hosted by the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and China chemical fiber General Corporation, the Eighth China International polyester forum, hosted by CCFEI and Tecnon OrbiChem, was held in Shanghai as scheduled.

After years of accumulation, the forum already has a high popularity. Participants can always find new ideas to analyze the market situation and trend through active exchanges and discussions, and there are always some new changes that spread quickly through this platform.

Since September, "sweet scene" has disappeared.

I remember that in June and July this year, reporters learned about the situation in the Wujiang area of Jiangsu, a developed textile and chemical fiber industry. Local people reflected that "the first half of this year is better than the same period last year".

However, the good times at that time did not cause too much surprise, but the industry was worried about the situation in the second half of the year.

The biggest reason for this worry is the lack of external demand at the time, and the inventory of cloth factories and garment factories is backlog.

In addition, affected by macroeconomic policies and other factors, the cost of corporate loans has increased and financing difficulties have increased since the beginning of this year.

Indeed, if 1~9 fiber industry, especially polyester polyester industry, is still immersed in the "sweet scene" since last year, then the days after September will be somewhat sad.

At this forum, many people pointed out that the average selling price of PET filament dropped by 2000 yuan / ton over the past month or more since September 24th, falling from 17000 yuan / ton to 15000 yuan / ton, and it is still unknown whether the bottom of the price is happening.

The industry generally believes that the continued decline in demand may make polyester polyester Market Outlook continued downward.

The demand for textile chemical fiber is highly related to the macro economy.

According to Zheng Junlin, Secretary General of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, most enterprises believe that the current economic environment is no better than that of the financial crisis. Although the underlying causes of the two plight are quite different, the result is less demand and weaker market confidence.

According to Zheng Junlin, in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value above Designated Size, the value of industrial exports above Designated Size, and fixed asset investment all showed a trend of quarterly decline.

The total retail sales of consumer goods, which have a significant impact on textile demand, declined month by month in recent months. The actual comparable growth rate in August has increased by only 10% compared with the same period last year, especially after the increase in product prices more than doubled.

At the same time, if we analyze the cyclical regularity of the chemical fiber industry, we can draw a conclusion that it is consistent with the current market performance.

Zheng Junlin pointed out that after more than 10 years of rapid development, the operation cycle of the chemical fiber industry has been shortened from 4~5 to 2~3.

After the resumption of growth in the first half of 2009 and two and a half years, it is also normal to enter the decline stage.

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Demand is not strong, and upstream from downstream.

Reporters learned that, in the fourth quarter, the textile industry orders fell rapidly, mainly due to the reduction of orders in the downstream clothing and home textile factories, and showing the trend from downstream to upstream.

Meng Hongjun, general manager of Jiangsu Hengli Chemical fiber sales department, told reporters that at present, the inventory level of chemical fiber factory is relatively normal, but the terminal clothing and fabric enterprise inventory is too large, and the downstream operating rate is insufficient, which will likely affect the next year's order of the chemical fiber industry.

Data show that the downstream garment and fabric factories operate at a rate of about 40%, and factories generally do not receive orders.

Shi Qiao, vice director of East China Office of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, who is familiar with the market situation, also said that at present, except for Wujiang, loom operation rate is still good, about 6 percent.

Due to the shortage of cash flow in some weaving factories, the wages of workers have been hit by 30 percent off.

Shi Qiao also pointed out that the downstream demand has been gradually spread to polyester polyester enterprises. At present, some chemical fiber plant inventory gradually reaches more than 20 days and is still increasing.

For the textile industry's bottom-up dilemma, Meng Hongjun believes that the root cause lies in the imbalance between supply and demand, which is caused by the mismatch of the geometric growth of upstream supply and the linear growth of terminal consumption.

According to him, the chemical fiber industry 1~9 month sales booming, mainly benefited from the large increase of loom production capacity downstream, but after September, the market environment suddenly changed. The new loom manufacturers found that the products were hard to sell, and could only be forced to stop, thus affecting the purchase and price of chemical fiber raw materials.

The reason for the geometric growth of upstream supply is due to the backwardness of enterprises in the new round of expansion, and the desire to make full use of technology and equipment. Because of the demand for clothing inventory procurement formed in the short term last year, the demand for upstream enterprises has multiplied.

In 2009, the new capacity of chemical fiber was about 1 million tons, and the new output increased to 3 million 700 thousand tons in 2011. It is estimated that the new capacity will reach more than 7 million tons in 2012. This is a part of the new production capacity postponed or suspended.

However, in the end demand of the common people, the real consumption is linearly and steadily increasing under the objective conditions such as purchasing power and wardrobe capacity.

In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi has weakened external demand, and export orders have been pferred to lower cost regions such as Vietnam and India.

Polyester chain changes from dumbbell shaped to olive shaped.

People in the industry hold different views on the geometric growth of chemical fiber capacity represented by polyester polyester.

Some people believe that the demand for supply is different from the previous demand, and the product differentiation and market diversification catalyzed by technological progress make supply more and more important to demand.

In other words, the supply of high growth can stimulate the growth of demand on the basis of expanding the application field.

The most typical example of this group is that Hengli Group started 200 thousand tons of polyester industrial yarn, accounting for nearly 30% of the total capacity of the industry.

But in the end, 200 thousand tons of capacity were digested by the market due to the expansion of the field of industrial yarn application and the increase of its consumption. Even after that, 300 thousand tons of capacity expanded by other enterprises were also accommodated by the market.

There is another phenomenon that can prove this view. In the past, polyester polyester plant invited downstream customers to eat. Now many customers have invited polyester enterprises in turn, indicating that the supply side's influence in the market is increasing even if the supply is greatly increased.

But not everyone is so optimistic.

Frederic VANHOUTE, director of the European Commission on international rayon and synthetic fibres, is the representative of excess capacity.

In the press's impression, many people from the EU attended the China chemical fiber conference. They were all discussing about the rapid expansion of Asian capacity, and the impact of imported products on the related industries in the European Union and other regions.

Frederic VANHOUTE frankly pointed out that at present, the global polyester production capacity is seriously overabundant, and there is still a worsening trend.

He called on the world's chemical fiber industry to consider prudently and comprehensively from the perspective of investment, trade, environment and innovation, and jointly promote the healthy development of the global fiber industry with responsible market practices.

Objectively speaking, he excludes the standpoint problem. Some of his views have warning and enlightening significance to the industry.

After all, polyester polyester is only a part of the industrial chain. If we want to judge whether the current expansion of the enterprise is appropriate, we should put it in the industrial chain as a whole.

Xu Zhilong, an industry analyst at Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Zhejiang, pointed out that the industrial chain form including PX, PTA and polyester links is changing from dumbbell shaped to olive shaped. The main reason is the huge increase of domestic PTA production capacity.

Data show that in 2011, the world's PTA capacity reached 54 million tons, and China will exceed 20 million tons.

The large domestic polyester enterprises, represented by Heng Yi, Rong Sheng, Hengli, Shaoxing Far East, three lane road and Tong Kun, are extending to the downstream and practicing the integration of industrial chain.

After the new PTA installations of many enterprises are put into operation, there will be a large number of products to be taken away, in addition to meeting their own needs.

In contrast, MEG, another main raw material of polyester, has emerged as a new process route for coal chemical industry. However, due to factors such as policy and technology maturity, there is hardly any new capacity in China in 2011~2012, and it will rely heavily on imports.

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Innovation driven future development mode

When enterprises are analyzing the current situation and looking forward to the future market, many people are looking up at the stars to see how the road of the future industry should go.

In the period of "fifteen" and "11th Five-Year", the development of chemical fiber industry is mainly driven by technological progress, and the growth mode belongs to quantitative type. During the "12th Five-Year" period, the development of the industry will be more dependent on innovation driven, and the development mode will turn to quality benefit, energy saving and environmental protection.

Zheng Junlin's remarks impressed reporters.

It is undeniable that technological progress is still an indispensable engine for the future development of the industry, but the word "innovation" is particularly important in two words.

Industry experts pointed out that when the world's textile and chemical fiber production capacity was pferred to China and the textile industry base in other countries and regions became thinner and thinner, they gradually lost the power to develop new technologies and products.

Therefore, the Chinese textile industry must take the mode of introduction, digestion, absorption and re innovation since the reform and opening up as the main way of technological progress.

Zheng Junlin expounded the connotation of innovation drive from several aspects: in equipment technology innovation, we need to achieve breakthroughs in major equipment and key equipment; develop new products and technologies that meet market demand and even lead demand on technological products; in terms of system and mechanism innovation, we need innovative thinking in the construction of modern enterprise system, the overall operation mechanism of the industry, the deep cooperation in production, teaching and research, and the merger and reorganization of enterprises. In the management and marketing mode, we should establish a modern management mode and adjust the past "point to point" marketing into the industrial chain marketing.

At present, the downturn in the macro-economy has filled the industry with pessimism, but Shi Qiao Guan told reporters that the bad situation is bad for enterprises and may be a good thing for the industry.

His view is based on the adverse effect of bad environment.

When the situation is going up, the enterprises make money from the conventional products, and they will not spend much time on product innovation. When the market continues to be depressed, all kinds of pressure will force the enterprise to attach importance to product development and innovation.

This is why the new products and technologies have springing up after the crisis, and enterprises' awareness of energy saving and emission reduction has been significantly enhanced.

In November 8th, Australia adopted the "carbon tax" act proposed by the Gilad administration.

At this point, the controversial bill became law.

Australia is the largest producer of greenhouse gases in developed economies. The implementation of the "carbon tax" will make Australia one of the countries with the largest carbon emission restrictions outside Europe.

When carbon tariffs are increasingly becoming a new choice for carbon emission reduction in various countries and are likely to form new means of trade protection, China's chemical fiber industry, which accounts for more than 60% of the world's total capacity, must re-examine the relationship between development and environmental protection and seek solutions to the coordinated development of the two.