Nomura: China's Growth Is Even More Risky, &Nbsp, But It Will Not Cut Interest Rates In The First Half Of Next Year.

"The real estate market seems to be shrinking rapidly -- all leading indicators indicate that it will be further weakened. Therefore, I predict that the risk of the next two quarters will be biased towards the bottom line and may exceed the market expectations.

"Zhang Zhiwei said to Lu Du.

Last week

"Quarterly, I think it is possible that the economic growth rate is below 8%; in view of the announcement last week, I expect the first quarter growth rate to be lower than 8%.

"Zhang Zhiwei said at the Reuters Investment Summit in China.

Zhang Zhiwei said the shrinkage of the real estate industry has affected the steel industry, and it is testifies to the decline in steel prices and production in October. At the same time, it also hints at the more and more common view of other related industries, that is, the property market.

Zhang Zhiwei said he expects the rest of the year to be fine-tuning in the first half of next year, eliminating the possibility that some Chinese observers will say that the government is about to launch a stimulus package.

"Next year, I expect that the policy will shift from fine-tuning to gradual relaxation, but even next year, I do not think there will be any stimulus plan.

"

He said that at present there are financial support from most public housing construction - 10 million affordable housing projects have been started this year, and the scale of construction will be similar next year.

At the same time, the government is likely to provide monetary support through raising the target of new loans, rather than cutting interest rates or lowering the reserve requirement ratio of banks.

"We expect to increase lending supply in the first quarter of next year," Zhang Zhiwei said, adding that new loans were added in 2011.

At present, we expect that the total amount of new loans in 2012 will increase from 7 trillion and 500 billion this year to 8 trillion yuan.

"He said.