The Global Economy Is On The Brink Of The Two Recession, And Emerging Markets Are Also Unable To Escape.

The United Nations issued the 1 world economic situation and Outlook report 2012 warning: the economy of the developed economies is in the mire and emerging. Economics Nor can the body be alone. The global economy is "stumbling" on the precipice of "the two recession".

UN economists pointed out that the coming 2012 will become the "critical year" for the world economy. The direction of the world economy will depend on whether developed countries can take more effective measures to deal with the increasing risk of global economic downturn.

　 Four chronic diseases weigh heavily on developed economies.

In this report, the United Nations expects world economic growth in 2012 to decline from 2.8% this year to 2.6%, far below the forecast value of 3.6% before six months. Even so, the UN warned that the report may remain too optimistic, because the assumption is that the European sovereign debt crisis is under control and that the fiscal tightening policy in developed countries will not continue to be overweight.

According to the report, the developed economies now face four main risks: deep debt crisis, fragile financial system, high unemployment rate and tight policy, weak demand, and paralysis mechanism resulting from political deadlock and inefficient institutions. What is more worrying is that these four chronic diseases may form a vicious circle.

Hong Pingfan, director of the United Nations global economic monitoring center, who wrote the report, said: "there has been a vicious interaction between the four. These risk factors can not only cause the developed countries to fall into recession again, but also seriously threaten the economic growth and stability of developing countries through international trade and financial channels."

　 European and American economic engine failure

As the two largest engine of the world economy, the United States and Europe have been tortured by their own debt problems and economic difficulties. According to the UN report, although the US economy has experienced a moderate rebound in the third quarter of this year, it is expected that it will continue to weaken next year or even fall into the risk of "moderate contraction".

Hong Pingfan said: "political stalemate, consumers and Investment People who lack confidence, stay high in unemployment, and sluggish real estate. market As well as the fragile banking sector, the vicious circle between these factors can easily lead to a low growth or even a recession in the US economy.

The situation in Europe is even worse. According to the UN report, even if the European debt crisis is successfully controlled, European economic growth will still be very low next year. Most countries are on the verge of recession, while the heavily indebted euro zone countries are likely to fall into a prolonged recession.

　 Emerging market economies can not escape drag.

The United Nations report holds that although developing countries will continue to shoulder the heavy responsibility of "global economic engine" with stronger growth, the growth rate will be significantly affected.

The report predicts that China's economic growth rate will fall to 9.3% from 10.3% last year, and next year it will further decline to below 9%. Next year, India's economic growth will drop between 7.7% and 7.9%.

The impact of Brazil and Mexico is even more pronounced. Brazil's economic growth this year is expected to drop sharply from 7.5% last year to 3.7%, and next year it will continue to decline to 2.7%. Mexico's economic growth will drop to 3.8% and 2.5% respectively in the next two years.

Hong Pingfan said initially that the economy of developing countries will grow by 6.1% this year, significantly lower than last year's 7.5% and will further slow down to 5.6% next year. He said: "the slowdown in growth in developing countries is mainly due to the macroeconomic control of these countries in response to inflation and excessive credit growth, but the growth rate next year will be mainly dragged down by developed countries."

　 The world is facing a dilemma of policy.

According to the UN report, at present, both developed and developing countries are in a dilemma of policy. For developed economies, United Nations economists suggest that developed countries should be cautious in adopting further tightening policies as the economic recovery remains fragile and unemployment remains high. For countries such as the US and Germany, which have low financing costs, there is still room for continued fiscal stimulus to boost the economy.

For developing countries, the report suggests that, on the one hand, we need to strictly guard against the impact of worsening external financial environment. On the other hand, we should strengthen economic restructuring and achieve sustainable growth goals.

To promote a stronger, balanced and sustainable recovery of the global economy, United Nations economists have called for governments to take more resolute measures and strengthen global coordination and cooperation as soon as possible.