Rational View Of The Impact Of Cotton Market Acquisition And Storage

Under the influence of policies and fundamentals, cotton prices are rising and falling in a relatively limited space, focusing on cotton policy.

If the storage volume is insufficient, it is not ruled out that after the end of the purchase and storage, the cotton price will continue to fall.

Recently, Zheng cotton walked out of four successive days.

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However, the main factor that affects cotton prices is the cotton related policy, namely, the policy of purchasing and storing and importing cotton quotas, and the downstream textile market has not improved significantly.

Judging from the purchase and storage, the state's determination and ability to stabilize cotton prices can not be questioned.

Maintaining the cotton price in a certain period of time is conducive to the stability of order and inventory of downstream textile enterprises, and to a certain extent buffers the impact and adverse impact of the decline in cotton prices on the industrial chain.

However, the state clearly pointed out that the purpose of purchasing and storage is two: first, stabilizing cotton production and market expectations; and two, ensuring market supply.

That is to say, when the quantity of storage and storage reaches a certain level, it is not possible to exclude the possibility of throwing the reserve by the backhand.

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In addition, the rise in cotton prices has made spot traders wait-and-see sentiment rising, and the enthusiasm for storage has weakened.

In December 6th, more than 30 thousand tons of storage were only half of the volume of the previous day.

The higher the price of cotton in the market, the more difficult it is to collect and store the paction. There is no guarantee for the purchase and storage volume, so it is difficult to guarantee the stability of cotton prices after purchasing and storing.

The mechanism of collecting and storing price limits is actually the market balancer instead of the safe. We should rationally consider the influence of the purchase and storage and the intention of the policy to support the market.

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Judging from the quota policy of imported cotton, domestic cotton prices are stable, while international cotton prices are relatively low. Internal and external upside down may lead cotton enterprises to increase import of foreign cotton in order to get a certain price difference.

In order to ensure that the domestic cotton market is not impacted by cheap imported cotton and ensure the effectiveness of the purchase and storage of domestic cotton prices, it is not possible to exclude the possibility of adjusting the quota policy of imported cotton in the next year.

At present, there are two possible adjustments: first, to reduce or control the rhythm of the sliding tax quota, and the two is to raise the levying tax price.

At present, the price of imported sliding duty is 11397 yuan / ton. In accordance with the import cotton tariff rate in December, the price of imported cotton CNF is priced at 5% cents to 40% of the 81.16 cent / pound (i.e. the outer cotton quotation is below 81.16), which is higher than the import duty of only 570 yuan per ton.

If we raise the price of levying taxes, we will expand the scope of sliding tax collection and increase the cost of imported cotton in order to achieve the effect of damming.

However, if the import cotton quotas are not adjusted as expected, the domestic cotton prices will rise, and more imported cotton and imported cotton yarn will be poured into the Chinese market, and the domestic cotton prices will continue to have a substantial support.

To sum up, in the short to medium term, cotton market oscillates more frequently, and contracts in recent months face greater pressure.

In the long run, the strengthening of cotton prices will depend on the improvement of textile demand in the macro and downstream sectors.

The textile industry is forced to pform at high cost and low profit. During the pition period, a lot of excess capacity needs to be pferred or digested.

Generally speaking, under the influence of policies and fundamentals, the space for the rise and fall of cotton prices is relatively limited, with a focus on cotton policy.

If the storage volume is insufficient, it is not ruled out that after the end of the purchase and storage, the cotton price will continue to fall.