The Volume Of International Cotton Trade Will Drop To 7 Million Tons In The Coming Year.

The new year is expected to be international.

In recent five years, the total volume of international cotton trade has remained relatively stable, and the annual cotton trade volume has averaged 8 million tons. In the 2008 year, the financial crisis has shrunk.

Cotton trade mainly flows to developing countries in Asia. From the absolute perspective, the United States, India and China are the three largest trading entities.

The United States is the main exporter of agricultural products, and its annual export sales are stable at around 3 million tons.

Although the annual total export volume is relatively stable, the annual sales data of the early signing contracts vary greatly.

The easing of monetary conditions in 2009 pushed commodity prices up sharply, and the export of Upland Cotton in the next year will be broken up to 26.34%.

Speculative demand and shortage speculation also made the volume of advance contract in 2011 reached 1 million 346 thousand and 600 tons, accounting for 56.49% of the total export volume expected.

The import and export trade of cotton has also evolved from the current rigid demand to the expected speculation of investment.

From the progress of the contract, the period of concentrated signing has also increased from the previous shortage to the end of the year.

India's cotton production has steadily increased in recent years, and USDA predicts the new year.

As the largest cotton consumption and importing country, China imports cotton annually and accounts for 1/4 of its total consumption.

In the past five years, China has issued quotas of 3 million tons, with an average annual import volume of 2 million 300 thousand tons and a quota utilization rate of 78%.

In 2011, on the basis of the original quota policy, the government launched a 19800 yuan / ton reserve plan.

At present, domestic storage and storage up to 1 million 100 thousand tons, is expected to reach 2 million tons at the end of this year, which will become the most concentrated domestic cotton in the year.

According to relevant channels, China has bought millions of tons of cotton into the reserve.

It is estimated that the main means of stabilizing the market in the next year is to control the issuance of quotas.

According to monthly data, the peak of outward cotton arrivals is ahead of schedule, and the average height of concentrated port reaches 2 to 3 months in advance, which is consistent with that of the US cotton.

It is estimated that the volume of international cotton trade will decline to around 7 million tons in the year of 2011/2012, affected by the world economic situation. However, the volume of trade between the core export countries such as the US and India will not be reduced. It is estimated that US cotton exports will be 3 million tons and India's exports will be 1 million 200 thousand tons.

Excluding the millions of tons of cotton reserves purchased, China will still import 2 million tons of foreign cotton in 2012.

In 2012, China will control the import of foreign cotton through the control of quota issuance, and it is estimated that the quota will be around 1 million 700 thousand tons in 2012.

Domestic cotton reserves will reach 2 million 500 thousand tons. In the pattern of massive cotton imports and storage and textile industry migration, the number of cotton trade in Xinjiang will decline sharply. There may be a certain degree of structural tension in the cotton industry in the future, and cotton will be the main supply.