Decline In Foreign Trade: Step Back &Nbsp; Two Steps Forward

In the center

The above data directly reflect two realities in foreign trade: first, although China's foreign trade import and export value has increased year-on-year, its growth rate has declined, especially during the 4 consecutive months of -11 months in August.

At the same time, the margin of trade surplus narrowed to 18.2%.

Second, China's foreign trade situation is not optimistic this year.

From the beginning of reform and opening up to the "export-oriented economy", China has become the "world factory" after China's accession to the WTO. Foreign trade has been playing the most important and important role in China's economic development for many years.

People remember that the US subprime mortgage crisis occurred in 2008 and the global economy was in decline.

And China's foreign trade momentum is still strong, so that many people are surprised by this "unique show" performance.

At the beginning of this year, Europe was worried about debt crisis, and some hoped that China could become the "engine of world economy" by virtue of its strength in Global trade.

But just a few months later, China's foreign trade suddenly began to slow down.

How do we understand this new situation? What will the impact of the decline of foreign trade on the whole economy be? As some people predict, China's economy will collapse in the next year or the following year, and the decline of foreign trade will become a signal that will become the "wind vane" of China's economy turning downward.

If we seriously sort out all kinds of information, we should see that in 2011, China's foreign trade fluctuated and slipped, but it was also normal.

Let's talk about passivity.

The United States and Europe are China's most important export markets and the largest source of export orders.

However, over the past year, America's economic recovery has been sluggish and its domestic demand has been shrinking.

Against this background, the bilateral trade growth between China and the United States dropped from 28.3% in 2010 to 16.9% in the first 11 months of this year. It is not surprising that China's exports are declining.

The situation in Europe is even worse. Since the outbreak of the Greek debt crisis, Europeans have found overnight that the days of "eating cold and sour" have not been able to survive.

Governments are taking measures to tighten their finances, and the people are ready to tighten their belts.

The buyer is tight, and the seller has no choice.

Therefore, the bilateral trade growth between China and the EU slowed from 31.8% in 2010 to 19.2% in the first 11 months of this year.

The newly released November PMI survey showed that the new export orders of manufacturing industry accelerated to fall, and for two consecutive months, below 50% of the critical point, indicating that the negative impact of the European sovereign debt crisis and the market demand of developed economies in the downstream channel on China's economy is gradually emerging.

Why is it normal? On the one hand, in recent years, global energy prices, iron ore and other raw material prices, grain prices are rising.

Labor costs in domestic, especially those concentrated in the eastern coastal export enterprises are increasing.

On the other hand, some countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America show their competitive competitiveness in the fields of textile and clothing and low-end manufacturing.

Facing the two pressures of rising cost and shifting the export market, the decline of China's foreign trade is quite normal.

Another meaning of "normal" is that after twenty or thirty years of rapid development, China's foreign trade should slow down, slow down and make strategic adjustments.

Over the past years, China's foreign trade export has been brilliant, mainly relying on resources, environment and low cost competition.

Such a path can expand the market and seize the market in a short time. As time goes on, the weak points such as "resource constraints" and "environmental constraints" will gradually emerge.

At the same time, the wage growth of such enterprises is lagging behind the growth of export volume and can no longer be sustained. The way of competition by cheap labor must be changed.

Therefore, adjustment is necessary.

It needs to be emphasized that the slowdown in foreign trade exports is temporary and phased, and is a response to the extremely complicated international environment.

What we need to do is pform the passive situation of export order reduction into the opportunity of active adjustment.

When traditional competitiveness is lost, efforts should be made to rely on technological innovation, industrial upgrading and brand building to form new competitive advantages of exports.

In short, step back is the two step.

Today's adjustment will accumulate strength for tomorrow.

The decline of foreign trade and structural adjustment mean that many enterprises will be unhappy and some enterprises will go bankrupt and bankrupt.

At this point, what the government needs to do is not simply to save the market, but to spend money on encouraging technological innovation and strengthening social security.

Only in this way can we lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of China's foreign trade.