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Looking At The Trend Of Textile Industry From Macroeconomics Data

2011/12/15 10:48:00 20

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Macroeconomic Data Trend

2009~2011 China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) change trend chart

News background

As a weathervane of manufacturing industry, China's PMI in November

data

It was announced a few days ago.

Data show that in November, the PMI index declined significantly, from 50.4% in October to 49%, which is the first time that it has dropped to 50% under the expansion contraction critical point after March 2008.

Among them, the new export orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points compared with October, falling to a new low of 46.9% over the past two years. The finished product inventory index was 52.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from October, and the sales situation of the enterprises was not ideal, which may further slow down the economic growth rate; in November, the purchase price index fell sharply from 46.6% in October to 46.6% in October.

currency

The pressure of expansion has been alleviated in the context of economic slowdown. In terms of corporate prosperity, the boom of large and medium-sized enterprises in November has continued downward trend, and the small business boom has declined slightly.

From the industry point of view, electrical, special equipment, chemical fiber industry and other industries in the top down, has more than 4 percentage points.

At the same time, the Central Bank of China has sharply lowered the deposit reserve ratio, and the European debt crisis has experienced new changes. Under the complex background, the domestic macroeconomic trend has attracted much attention.

Macro situation

The trend of economic growth will continue.

On the whole, the weakness of manufacturing industry is an indisputable fact.

purchase

The decline of power and the weakening of foreign demand are the main reasons for the decline of the whole manufacturing industry.

All this starts with the financial crisis of 2008.

In 2008, the US financial crisis emerged.

At the beginning of the crisis, people who want to put themselves out of the world are happy to have fun.

They naively believe that this is only the financial crisis in the United States, as long as the construction of their own firewall, isolated themselves from the financial crisis in the United States will be survived.

But in fact, as the only superpower in the world, the US dollar as an international currency can not be underestimated for other countries.

The butterfly in the United States is only a fan of wings, and the butterfly effect has been surging around the world like a tsunami.

Global asset prices have plummeted and the economy is in serious recession. No country has escaped the economic disaster.

Today, the financial crisis has lasted for three years, and all countries are actively taking measures to deal with the financial crisis, trying to minimize losses and slow down the economic downturn brought by the financial crisis, but with little effect.

In recent times, the European debt crisis has intensified. With the increasing crisis of the European debt crisis, the global central bank monetary policy, which also showed differentiation trend a few months ago, is now showing a new trend of convergence.

In November 30th, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank announced the concerted action to support the global financial system, agreeing to reduce the cost of the existing temporary US dollar liquidity swap arrangement by 50 basis points and formally implemented in December 5th.

The six major central banks join hands to save the market, which is rare. It aims to stabilize the financial market by obtaining the necessary US dollar liquidity and mitigate the impact of the debt crisis.

As the Central Bank of China, the people's Bank of China announced on the same day that it will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from December 5th.

This is the first time the central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio in three years.

After adjustment, China's large financial institutions and small and medium-sized financial institutions will carry out the deposit reserve ratio of 21% and 17.5% respectively.

For a long time, our country has been using the means of shrinkage to absorb the liquidity of funds, and the adjustment space of monetary policy has been very narrow.

However, as far as China's current situation is concerned, inflation and soaring housing prices since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008 have now been controlled to a certain extent.

Under such circumstances, in the face of the downward trend of economic growth, it is reasonable to see that the measures to stabilize the economic growth and reduce the deposit reserve ratio are reasonable.

The central bank lowered the deposit reserve rate and released about 400 billion yuan of liquidity.

This partial loose monetary policy, or the restoration of monetary policy normalization, is beneficial.

increase

The ability of banks to lend will ease the risk of economic downside.

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Industry dynamics

Domestic demand is the first driving force for the development of textile industry.

Textile industry, as a traditional supporting industry in our country, has always been the choice of most textile enterprises to take the export oriented and investment driven economic growth.

The six major central banks of the world are working together to save the market. The reduction of the deposit reserve ratio by the Central Bank of China is good news for all kinds of enterprises in China, especially for the small and medium enterprises in the textile industry, and is of great benefit to their production and export.

Lowering the deposit reserve ratio and capital mobility, and in the tight capital flow situation, the financing pressure of enterprises is expected to be eased, providing guarantee for the smooth progress of production and providing conditions for structural adjustment and long-term development.

The good news also came from the APEC summit held in Hawaii, USA in from November 8th to 13th.

As a summit held in the international environment of the global financial crisis, which led to a decline in global market demand and a sharp reduction in export orders and the protection of trade in all countries, APEC member leaders issued a joint statement during the summit.

The statement stressed that Member States agreed to reduce tariffs on all green commodities to no more than 5% by the end of 2015; avoid measures to impede the pfer of intellectual property rights among member countries; and expect to reduce the total energy consumption in the region by 45% by 2035.

The statement also said it would reduce non-tariff barriers related to green goods trade.

The release of this joint statement will help our textile enterprises directly contact key environmental protection technologies at lower cost and provide support for the export of sophisticated green textiles.

But at the same time, it also conveys such a signal to our textile export products: with science and technology as the support, and vigorously developing sophisticated green products, we can enjoy this kind of spring breeze and enjoy the benefits of various international trade policies.

Although international and domestic monetary policies and

Trade

The policies are providing benefits and convenience for the textile industry's production and export, and domestic inflation has eased. However, facing the industry reality that the manufacturing industry is weak and the textile industry orders are shrinking rapidly, the domestic and foreign sales situation of China's textile industry is not optimistic next year.

Only by changing the way of thinking, from export oriented, investment driven, to become a consumer oriented, domestic oriented road is wise.

After all, only internal and external training can provide double protection for the sales of enterprises.

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Expert opinion

PMI and deposit reserve ratio double down policy easing period opens

The market received two successive reports: first, PMI unexpectedly fell below the critical point (50); two, the Central Bank of China sharply reduced the deposit reserve ratio.

The message from the two message is very clear: China's economic slowdown is far faster than expected, and the government has intervened.

The cycle of policy easing has already begun, but the risk of policy errors is still high, because the background of the relaxation of relevant policies is that the eurozone crisis is deteriorating, the property market is unstable, the assets and liabilities of local governments are out of proportion and capital flight is running away.

- global economic analyst Thornton

Lowering the deposit reserve ratio is conducive to the textile and garment industry

It is good news for the textile and garment industry to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of the RMB, especially for large textile enterprises, but it does not mean much to the small and medium enterprises that account for most of the industry.

From the financing situation of the textile and garment industry, we would like to see the reform of the state in the financial system, so that our industry will benefit in the real sense.

Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation

The European debt crisis provides an opportunity to shift the focus of China's economy

The European debt crisis is also going to have a huge impact on China's economy, including the world economy, in an indirect way.

As one of the largest economies in the world, Europe is now experiencing slow growth and even negative growth.

China, including many Asian countries, can do more to shift the focus of development to the domestic consumer market.

At present, almost all Asian countries belong to the export-oriented economy, and the European debt crisis just gives these countries a good opportunity to shift the focus of development economy to domestic demand drive.

- President of the economic policy think-tank (Washington)

Clyde Prestowitz

Overseas shorting Renminbi forces are being fulfilled

The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3650, once again touched the limit line, and the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar touched down on five consecutive days.

In the past, there was a lot of strength of short selling of RMB in the market. Now it is just the decline of exports. China's stimulus policy has not been introduced, which gives time for these shorting forces to be fulfilled.

At present, there are not many opportunities for hot money speculation in China's two major markets, stock market and real estate market.

The Chinese government, who sees empty China, believes that the Chinese government, which is deeply trapped in the huge real estate pressure and debt crisis, can not adopt active fiscal and monetary policies. If it does not implement a proactive fiscal policy, the Chinese economy will not be much improved with the global market weakening and the decline in investment.

The continuous fall of RMB is not just the beginning of China's overall shorting.

The price of sovereign credit default swap from China's 5 year treasury bonds has already been foreshadowed.

However, China has 3 trillion and 200 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves and capital account has not yet been fully opened. At this time, large-scale strategic short selling of RMB is extremely costly, and it can not alleviate the debt problem of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. It is impossible to completely destroy China's economic strength.