Exports Will Go Forward Or Will Never Return.

In 2010, the great cost of "turning negative into positive" can not be paid.

In 2011, the contribution of exports to GDP was again reversed by shrinking external demand and rising domestic cost elements.

The blue book published recently by the Chinese Academy of social sciences is expected to import and export this year.

The contribution rate of so-called net exports to GDP growth is

"Negative growth is not necessarily true, but it is undeniable that in recent years, the proportion of foreign trade surplus in GDP has been declining."

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China, said in an interview with reporters that this shows that China's impact on the rebalancing of the crisis is still relatively large.

"At the same time, from the perspective of favorable balance structure, there is a large deficit in general trade. This shows that China's trade situation has undergone a qualitative change, and the future trade surplus is likely to disappear.

This phenomenon poses a severe challenge to the adjustment of China's industrial structure, and China should make corresponding adjustments in its future policy orientation.

Liu Yuanchun said.

Speaking of the reasons for the export reversal, Li Mingliang, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities Research Institute interviewed by reporters, believes that on the one hand, it is related to the shrinking of external demand. On the other hand, it is also the result of China's initiative to expand imports and strive to narrow the trade surplus.

Whether it is natural development or initiative, as soon as the export engine of China's rapid economic growth is reversed, China will have to adjust its structural period into a passive structural adjustment period. A pitional operation that concerns whether the Chinese economy will continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate in the next ten years or even decades will be put on the agenda.

The sharp decline in the contribution rate of exports to China's economic growth started from the financial crisis.

In the years before 2008, the contribution rate of exports to China's economic growth was generally 2 to 3 percentage points. In 2009, it decreased to negative for the first time, 3.9 percentage points negative and positive in 2010.

But behind this negative turn, China has also paid a heavy price.

In order to revitalize the economy, the 4 trillion investment plan was launched in 2008, and in 2009, with the slump of external demand, investment undoubtedly became the number one hero of China's economic growth.

But practice has proved that these high-intensity investments are doomed to alleviate the difficulties of a time, rather than a permanent solution.

Liu Yuanchun believes that these experiences remind us that we should not take lightly in the face of challenges, nor can we interpret them more.

We should grasp the degree of policy adjustment, not too much. We must take the time to assess the situation and make moderation.

Sometimes, it is not necessary to adopt some excessively positive measures. Perhaps only the fine adjustment of macro policy is needed.

When we have to pay for the negative effects of the high intensity investment, the real estate bubble and the local financing platform debt, how to restart consumption, stimulate the potential power of China's economic growth and activate the domestic market becomes the only way of pformation.

"When the global debt crisis has shaken the foundation of China's high growth, we have to tap the domestic potential to be impacted to the outside world."

Li Huiyong, senior macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said in an interview with reporters that the impact of the international financial crisis on China's economy is, on the surface, an impact on the speed of economic growth, but in fact it is an impact on the way of economic development.

The economic blue book released in 2012 by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also pointed out that behind the decline in the contribution rate of economic growth of net exports, there is a greater opportunity. China's long-term dependence on imports and exports may be fundamentally reversed.

Liu Yuanchun stressed that we should accelerate the consumption of articles, speed up the construction of our security system and safety net, accelerate the acceleration of our initial distribution reform, and make the consumption growth rate increase significantly, laying a foundation for the smooth operation of the future economy.