Christmas Spending In The US Is Not Optimistic About &Nbsp; Next Year'S Economy Will Fall Again.

Reading: economic downturn, high unemployment, Christmas in Europe and America

It is reported that the annual Western Christmas is coming.

The fourth Thursday of November is the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. It is called "black Friday" on the first Friday after Thanksgiving. Because businessmen usually open their doors early in the morning on that day, while black represents the profit in accounting statements.

Thanksgiving Day around Christmas is traditionally the most important shopping season in the United States, which accounts for more than 1/5 of the total retail sales in the month.

However, despite the hot selling of black Friday this year, many industry insiders are not optimistic about the overall holiday sales outlook this year.

How to interpret this situation? The voice of the economy, special commentator, Wang Jinlai, a macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan, makes an analysis.

Wang Jin: in fact, the overall trend of the US has exceeded the market expectations since the second half of this year. The main reason is that consumption exceeds expectations because of the decline in the savings rate.

On the whole, some loose or stimulating policies in the US have stimulated consumption growth in the United States. From a long-term trend, this growth is not sustainable because it is equivalent to overdraft the future.

In this case, we are sure that the US economy will probably fall again after the first quarter of next year.

Reporter: a survey released by US research group 5 this month showed that as of the end of November, 32% of Americans had completed most of their holiday purchases this year.

More than 6% of respondents said they had completed most of their holiday purchases in the first week of December, that is to say

Wang Jin: including the income of residents, the unemployment rate and other comprehensive factors, as well as the expectations of the future economy, if the economy continues to decline next year, this situation, consumers may also reduce the willingness to purchase.

Reporter: compared with the US, Europe, which is deeply in debt crisis, is even less optimistic.

Many people joked that Christmas this year is "blue" for Europeans.

In its annual spending survey, DDT pointed out that many European citizens found that they had to budget more for their holiday expenses this year, and that the list of gifts should be carefully selected and that gifts would be more practical.

What aspects of this "blue" Christmas are reflected?

Wang Jin: from the perspective of the global economy, the situation in Europe is the worst. In Europe, the situation in Germany is slightly better. But on the whole, the five European countries such as Greece and Italy are deeply troubled by the debt crisis. In general, the consumption desire of residents is very low, so the consumption expenditure of these countries may be lower.