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    Supply Shortage Caused By &Nbsp; Australian Wool Auction Price Again High.

    2011/12/29 11:14:00 9

    Supply ShortageAustralian Auctions Price High

    2011 calendar year

    Australian wool

    The auction ended in Melbourne last day. How many people are waiting for this week's price?

    drop

    But the result backfired.

    To tell you the truth, the long time pressure on China's wool textile enterprises at such a high price has never been easy for me.

    However, reality is reality. It is not appropriate for children to "get married".

    Commodity society has its own laws.

    Supply and demand are two ends of the sky.

    Sheep farmers and manufacturers are weights.

    From the analysis of the auction this Wednesday, the market demand is still strong, and China's purchasing power is still strong.


    If we analyze the figures, according to the latest statistics from the Australian Bureau of statistics, the number of Chinese imports of Australian wool fell by 2% in the month of July 2011 (the beginning of the new auction season) to the end of October.

    According to the figures released by the Nanjing wool market, the total volume of imports in China from January to October this year is 217 thousand tons.

    It is difficult to break through 250 thousand tons by the end of the year.

    This figure is the lowest since 2004.

    However, the value of Australian wool has increased by nearly 50% compared with the same period last year.

    Judging from these statistics,

    wool

    Industry is far from the situation of "Ying Ge Yan dance"! On the contrary, the wool industry has great pressure and difficult steps.

    Under such a premise, when the international situation is unstable and the future of the consumer market is uncertain, next year when the holiday is restarted, the performance of the market may be almost the same as at present, or even more "depressed".

    However, it is a question raised earlier. Does this mean a significant drop in prices? Does it mean that the collective "lockout" of the whole industry means that people no longer ask for this unique and lovely fiber? I know that I do not know how to rely on prayer when I know the question.

    Despite the fact that the price of Australian wool has plunged to below US $10 next spring, we are still not serious about future market trends. I am afraid we will never be able to stay away from frustration and disappointment.

    But in fact, even Australian industry analysts admit that it is hard to judge the direction of short-term market.

    Many people only make analysis now without comment.

    Because it's really hard to be an old critic, but is it really that difficult?


    One of my main concerns is the production of wool in the next year.

    According to the summary of various intelligence, I concluded that the total output of wool will not change much next year.

    This is basically the same as this year.

    Some people would say, is not the number of sheep in Australia will increase by about 3%? I admit that it will! But who knows that the selling price of Australian lambs can reach as high as A$140-150 per day? If I were a herdsman (Yang Nong), how would I consider it? After 12 months, I would cut the wool and sell it, and I should know how many people looked forward to the wool.

    Price reduction

    I will not hesitate to send the lamb out now.

    This is the most practical problem facing Australian herdsmen.

    This means that the number of wool fiber production in Australia will not increase in the near future.

    Other countries are also not in the state.

    Several volcanic eruptions in Chile this year reduced production of wool by about 20%, which greatly affected the supply of wool throughout South America.

    Sheep farmers in various countries are also faced with the contradiction between meat and wool.

    Today's terms are called "tangled".

    So the situation is clearer.

    Since the total amount of wool imported in China has hit the lowest point in nearly 7 years this year, the price of wool is still high. There is only one reason why the supply shortage is causing disaster. At present, Australia's annual output is the lowest in nearly 60 years.

    It's not sensational. It's really a big famine.


    There will be no major changes in supply and demand this year after the start of the new year.

    Such a huge global wool spinning industry has its own inertia.

    China's wool textile industry has undergone nearly 10 years of renovation and upgrading, both in terms of productivity and quality.

    Now we are suffering from "food shortage" and hunger, but we have not yet been able to go down.

    Looking at the demand for the consumer market, including the rapid growth of demand for professional clothing, wool products still have their own foothold.

    It is precisely because of these factors that the market situation we see this year will be so confusing, but it will always develop in an established direction.

    After the first quarter of next year, when domestic and foreign seasonal orders begin to arrive, although it is possible to reduce the requirement of wool content, it is a matter of deep concern for the shortage of supply and whether prices will rise again on the basis of today's demand.


    In the past two weeks, there has been no conscious comment on the performance of the Australian dollar.

    There is really no new content to add.

    The Australian dollar has been stall over the US dollar for nearly two weeks, but the new problems in the eurozone are beginning to slide, just like a kite with a broken line.

    But there seems to be some consensus now.

    I mentioned a few months ago about several elements that affect the Australian dollar.

    Now, if the Australian dollar is only affected by internal factors in Europe and Australia, the exchange rate with the US dollar will not fall easily by 95 cents.

    However, the exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the US dollar is likely to collapse in the short term once the reason is for the United States or because of China.

    We have seen many cases of falling 20% in the short term.

    So at present, the volatility of Australian dollar is still a concern of Pediatrics.


    There are more words this week.

    The commentary has been written for a whole year, and I don't know if it is advisable.

    In the light of the old habits of the West and the new habits of Chinese young people, I wish you all a merry Christmas and a happy New Year!

    Two weeks later, I promise to wish you a happy Spring Festival.


     
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