Buying And Storing Is Hard To Tackle This Downturn, Demand Is Limited, Cotton Rebound

In recent months, with the implementation of the policy of purchasing and storage, domestic

Guotai Junan Futures analyst Lin Shujuan believes that the overall cotton rebounded pattern has been formed in recent years, but the position and turnover situation is still in the doldrums. Generally speaking, the post market does not have the trend of rising trend.

She said that the State Reserve's unlimited acquisition of cotton can only provide the bottom support for domestic cotton prices, but it is difficult to substantially change the weak supply and demand pattern of cotton. The downturn in demand for cotton textile industry in the downstream will obviously suppress the rebound of cotton futures.

Beginning in September, the new cotton harvest and storage work will be more than half of the 19800 yuan / ton storage price.

29 days, temporary storage and storage of 66050 tons.

As of yesterday, cotton has accumulated 2 million 56 thousand tons in the current year.

Ease the pressure on spot supply and release positive price signals. It is indeed a must for cotton market to stabilize.

Shanghai mid-term analyst saw thunder, said the recent cotton spot purchase and storage pactions enthusiastically, in the spot price stabilized at 19100 yuan / ton, the storage will continue.

The rebound in the cotton market will benefit from the continued reduction of spot resources, and the short term strategy can continue to operate more closely.

However, the market still has a long way to go before it gets warmer.

Sales of domestic textile downstream products are weak, resulting in low enthusiasm for purchasing raw cotton by textile enterprises.

See the introduction of thunder, said this year, textile enterprises long-term orders are short, mostly short, so they are used to buy, did not appear large-scale procurement, cotton yarn sales are also relatively light.

Related monitoring reports also show that in December, the domestic yarn and cloth production and sales rate has dropped sharply, and the inventory of factory cloth has risen to the highest level since 2008, and the enterprises preparing to purchase raw materials are only about 60%.

"According to the current situation, domestic cotton storage and storage capacity may reach 3 million 200 thousand tons, although the supply pressure of the circulation market is decreasing, but the overall demand is low, cotton prices are still very difficult to be optimistic next year."

Lin Shujuan said.

According to the latest projections from the US Department of agriculture (USDA), the global cotton consumption in the new year is expected to decline by 2.5%, with an annual surplus of 12 million 100 thousand packages, second only to the 17 million 900 thousand package of 1984/1985 and the 12 million 500 thousand pack of 2004/2005, ranking third in history.

Some agencies believe that under the situation of global cotton consumption weakness, it is difficult for China's purchasing and storage plan to lift global cotton prices.

Nanxian futures analyst Xu Yu said that the current cotton purchase and storage profits were generally high, and the market rebounded slightly under the impetus of a large quantity of cotton entering the warehouse, but the strength was not good enough.

Recently, the textile market is still weak. Once the price rises too high, the sell-off will probably be pferred from the storage to the futures market. It is estimated that the resistance of the 20800 yuan / ton line will be larger, or the market will fall slightly later.

It is worth noting that under the purchase and storage system and quota system, there are some special phenomena in the domestic cotton market.

The most obvious is the short cut of the domestic market and the international market, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has exceeded 1000 yuan.

According to the Securities Times reporter, the quota of cotton tariffs in the new year is still 894 thousand tons, which has not yet been issued to enterprises.