Price Rises Suppress Consumption &Nbsp; CPI Slowdown Slows Up High Prices.

Enter any family in Beijing Market The down jacket counter, you will find that less than 1000 yuan this year. Down Jackets Almost extinct. And in a short year ago, 700 to 1000 yuan is still most of the down. clothing The main price range.

The rise in clothing prices is only the tip of the iceberg of rising prices. In recent interviews with reporters, clothing, shoes and hats, or high prices of food, are affecting people's willingness to consume.

Although most domestic institutions and scholars believe that inflation pressure has slowed down in 2012, will prices fall gradually in the current round of soaring prices? Will the high price era continue to accompany us for a long time?

　　 Skyrocketing prices

"In 2010, 500 yuan of clothing was sold for 800 yuan this year, up by 300 yuan. Our profit has not increased after careful calculation." Shen manager, who owns many counters in the large shopping mall in Beijing, said in an interview with our reporter that in the past 2011, the average price of the purchase of all kinds of clothing had reached about 20%.

He gave reporters a detailed account, and the average annual rental increased by 1%~2%. The highest salary was 5%, and the salary rose from 1200 yuan in 2010 to 1500 yuan in 2011. In addition, he operated counters in several large shopping malls in Beijing. Last year, a few of the original expenses were also increasing, including water charges, electricity charges and the cost of credit card service formerly undertaken by banks.

The increase in clothing costs also makes the cost of sales deducting to sales staff at the same time rising.

"If wholesalers increase by 10 yuan, they will rise to 50 to 70 yuan in the hands of consumers, because the corresponding fees are rising, the deduction point is rising, and the employee Commission is also rising. Generally speaking, the overall price of clothing has gone up 30% to 50% this year." Shen manager said.

In view of the concern of the industry, Shen manager has an indispensable job on weekdays, which is to go shopping and see the price. In his view, although the price of clothing has been rising every year for the past 10 years, it has gone up a little every year, but 2011 is an exception.

Compared with the garment market with non rigid demand, the price trend of the farmers market, which concerns the table of the ordinary people, is attracting more and more attention.

"Just bought 1 kilograms of pork, it cost 32 yuan, two or three days up 4 yuan, now is even meat can not afford to eat." Aunt Wang, who lives in Beijing, sighs.

Nearly 20 days away from the lunar new year, prices of some vegetable varieties began to rise rapidly.

According to Liu Tong, director of the Statistics Department of the new wholesale market, the weighted average price of vegetables is about 2.2 yuan / kg, which is about 10% lower than that of the same period last year.

　　 Low inflation VS high prices

In the view of some officials and agencies in China, inflation pressure will slow down in 2012.

Zhang Xinfa, a macroeconomic analyst at Galaxy Securities, said in an interview with our reporter that the inflation pressure will drop this year. The annual total consumer price level of the whole country (hereinafter referred to as "CPI") will remain between 3% and 4%.

The forecast report just released by Nomura Securities believes that CPI inflation will show a downward trend in the first half of this year as food prices fall, growth momentum weakens and commodity prices fall. Therefore, the agency expects CPI inflation to rise again in the second half of this year, with an average annual inflation rate of 4%.

However, it is worth noting that the reduction of inflationary pressure can drive prices down.

"Barber, hair and other service prices, clothing, catering and other rigid demand, once the price is up, it is very difficult to continue, because in these areas there is a driving force for price increases." Zhang Xinfa said.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, CPI rose by 4.2% in 2011 and 0.2% in the year to November, which is the first time that the CPI ring has fallen in the current round of rising prices.

"Theoretically, it is possible that the overall decline in prices will occur only if the CPI is continuously negative." Zhang Xinfa said, however, such a trend is hard to see now.