The Two Main Line Is "Genuine Dragon" &Nbsp; 2012, Cautiously Optimistic, Prefer Home Textiles And Men'S Clothing Companies.

In 2012, faced with the downside risks of the overall economy, brand textile and garment enterprises had better defensive capabilities.

These brands are textiles.

In 2011, the A share trading came to a close. Although the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities had dropped to varying degrees, 619 stocks still outperformed the stock market (the Shanghai Composite Index fell 21.68% annually).

The weighted average stock price of the circulation share of the textile and garment sector decreased by 17.53% in the year, and overall outperformed the market, and 12 stocks went up against the market, showing good defensive performance. Good performance is the active factor to support the industry's performance.

It looks like the bull market is making money, and the bear market is also able to make money. The key is how to choose stocks and how to arrange them.

In the face of the coming 2012, many brokerages and other institutions have been consistent with the expectation of macro-economic growth and consumption slowdown, and the consumer confidence index is on the decline. This will affect the consumption of brand clothing to a certain extent.

Among them, 5 anti risk and growth determined stocks were unanimously sought to become the most potential stocks in 2012.

2011 performance driven win win market

In the past year, the overall decline of the whole market has been evident. The textile and garment industry as one of the consumer goods plates has outperformed the overall market, especially after the two quarter.

According to the latest statistics of Choi Hui, the market overall oscillates downward in the beginning of 2011, and the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by 21.68%. The overall trend of textile and garment sector is stronger than that of the whole market, and the whole sector has fallen by 17.53%, which has won the market trend.

The weighted average stock price of circulating shares of more than 70 listed textile and apparel companies slipped from 9.87 yuan at the end of December 2010 to 8.14 yuan at the end of December 2011.

But 12 stocks rose against the market.

Through the trend of the industry over the years, the performance of textile and clothing in the weak market is generally better than that of the strong market, and defensive characteristics have become increasingly evident in recent years.

Huatai Securities analysis that the textile and garment industry defensive enhancement and brand clothing investment in the industry accounted for the continuous improvement of the ratio has a great relationship.

From the perspective of the development of the textile and garment industry, before 2009, it benefited from the rapid development of the export business of the industry, and most of the textile and garment manufacturing enterprises were exported, such as Lu Tai A.

With the expansion of export scale, export growth has slowed down to some extent.

After 2009, domestic clothing demand began to warm up. In the early days, clothing brands in the domestic market continued to grow and expand, and landed in A in China.

Stock market, such as Luo Lai home textiles, Fu Anna, etc.

At present, the brand clothing enterprises choose to enter the A share market intensive period, with the help of capital market forces to achieve faster development and expand the brand market share.

Since 2010, about 9 of A shares have been listed on domestic brands. The increase of investment targets of brand clothing enterprises has made the industry more defensive. In the current period of rising consumption, the investment value of companies with growth in the industry is worth looking forward to.

According to the data of the author, after 2008, the overall operation level of the industry has been increasing year by year. In 2011, the income and net profit level of the textile and garment industry reached the highest level in history. Sales revenue increased by 38.3% compared with the same period last year, and the total profit increased by 29.9% over the same period last year.

This is due to the rapid recovery of the industry after the financial crisis of 2008. At the same time, this is also the constant growth of the domestic clothing consumption market, and the increase of the domestic brand clothing enterprises with good quality promotes the overall operation level of the industry.

The overall good performance of the industry in the past year is also a major factor in the performance of the industry in 2011.

The Organization draws 2012 treasure map.

The author carefully reviewed the latest strategy of textile and apparel industry in 2012, which was revealed by more than ten brokerages, and found that many organizations are cautiously optimistic about this year's investment.

Become the two main thread of this year's investment in textile and apparel stocks.

Relevant data show that the textile and apparel industry currently has a valuation of about 20 times earnings and is below the medium level in the industry, of which the textile manufacturing sub industry is currently valued at 18.6 times price earnings ratio, and its apparel home textile sub industry earnings ratio is slightly higher than 21.3 times.

Judging from the valuation of consumer sectors, the textile and garment industry is also at a low level, which is 36.9 times lower than that of the pre catering catering industry, 34.7 times of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, 29.3 times of food and beverage, and 29.2 times earnings of medical and biological products.

Judging from the historical valuation of the textile and garment industry, the overall valuation of the industry is below 28 times the historical level. Textile manufacturing and clothing home textiles are also lower than the average value of 32 times and 24 times of the history.

However, judging from the valuation premium rate of the industry sector relative to all A shares, the current textile and apparel industry is about 12.6 times the total A shares and the price earnings ratio is 62%, which is at a relatively high historical level.

Therefore, investors should be alert to the overall risk assessment of the industry as a whole.

Huatai Securities Research said that the slowdown of domestic apparel consumption growth in 2012 will be a big probability event. Investors should look for a quality brand enterprise that is sound in operation and has certain growth potential and can withstand the downturn of the whole industry. From the three levels of macro demand, middle industry and micro performance, it recommends high-quality brand stocks with sound business performance and limited valuation space.

According to debbond research, from 2012, the expectation of macroeconomic growth and consumption slowdown in 2012 will be the same. The consumer confidence index is on the decline, which will affect the consumption of brand clothing to a certain extent.

From the point of view of the sub sectors, the mass leisure industry dominated by the volume of consumption is more affected by the decline of consumption, while the men's and home textile industries which rely mainly on the "price increase" are positioned at the middle end and the impact is relatively small.

Dongxing Securities said that from a fundamental point of view, the textile and garment industry is constrained by the growth of external demand and the long repair period after the raw material slump. There is no incentive to stimulate the overall opportunities. Judging from the valuation and investment rules, the manufacturing sector has a significant cyclical characteristics. The current valuation of A shares is high, and the future relative earnings will decline.

It is suggested that investors should enhance their overall valuation with the A shares and constantly increase their brand clothing enterprises with good quality and offensive and defensive capabilities so as to achieve relatively high returns.

Xiangcai securities analysis shows that in 2012, the logic of investment was textile "timing attack", clothing "choose the best."

Judging from the foreign data and the existing orders of the listed companies, the first quarter of 2012 will be a historical low point. When the negative factors are released and the market valuation is further adjusted, the textile industry high-quality companies can be strategic layout.

Securities companies such as Anxin securities and Shanghai securities have indicated that the task of 2012 is "finding certainty".

Among them, Anxin Securities believes that luxury brand investment is recommended to look for a high proportion of Asia Pacific income and increase the brand enterprises to invest in the Asia Pacific region in the future. On the domestic brand investment, it is recommended to find sub sectors with stable performance and low inventory pressure, such as men's clothing and outdoor products sub sectors.

5 "hidden dragon" quietly appear

In 2012, in the face of the downside risks of the overall economy, brand textile and garment enterprises had better defensive capabilities.

From another point of view, these brand textile and garment enterprises have great differences because of their different stages of development and their location. Therefore, in the choice of investment targets, many brokerages are more inclined to grow faster in the industry, and enterprises with sound operation, home textiles and men's clothing enterprises are better choices.

In particular, 5 stocks that are anti risk and growth determined.

Fu Anna: outstanding characteristics of Art Orientation

The company is the top three brands of home textile enterprises in China. It has five brands, including "fuanna", "Xin Le Yue", "Wei Sha", "Sheng Hua" and "Mrs. Lara". It is one of the only two large-scale manufacturers of flat screen printing products in the world.

In 2012, investment logic has three main points: first, the establishment of the art home textile brand positioning, outstanding features, good reputation, high proportion of direct battalion, guarantee gross profit margin; two, vice brand Xin and Le began to exert force, launched propaganda war, revenue growth was swift and violent; three, set up factories in Sichuan, layout great southwest.

The company expects earnings per share 2011~2013 to be 1.60 yuan, 2.19 yuan and 2.93 yuan respectively.

Seven wolves: channels to rectify profits in the long run

The company is the leading commercial casual men's clothing brand in China, and the overall occupancy rate of the jacket Market ranks first in the country.

The logic of investment in 2012 has three main points: first, the business has always been steady; in 2012, the new store plan will speed up and inventory will be further digested; the two is to take the lead in improving the internal management, consolidate the foundation for tomorrow's development, reorganize the channels for profit in the long run, move down the channel management service center, and strengthen the control of the terminal. Three, the sum of the spring and summer orders will be increased by 30%, and the private placement will provide a margin of safety.

The company expects earnings per share 2011~2013 to be 1.40 yuan, 1.85 yuan and 2.39 yuan respectively.

Happy bird: terminal marketing to enjoy brand premium

The company is a domestic high-end men's clothing brand enterprise, has the three main brands of the wedding bird, the treasure bird and the San Jie Luo, and East China and Northeast China are its strong market.

In 2012, the investment logic was three: first, the YTD terminal sales growth was gratifying in 2011; the VIP marketing won customer loyalty and enjoyed the brand premium; the two is the company's preparatory issuance, the expansion speed will be accelerated, the gross profit margin + extension extension will be driven by two wheels; the three is the serialization of the wedding bird brand, the other brand diversification, and forging the "profit contribution sequence ladder".

The company expects earnings per share 2011~2013 to be 0.57 yuan, 0.77 yuan and 0.97 yuan respectively.

Roley home textiles: multi brand growth

The company is the largest home sales enterprise with the largest sales volume and profit margin in China. With the strategy of multi brand, it also acts on behalf of many foreign high-end brands on the basis of its own brand "Luo Lai".

The logic of investment in 2012 has three main points: first, the increase in prices is widely accepted by the market and brought about an increase in Ping effects; the two is the multi brand strategy, which fostering new profit growth points, and the LOVO brand has been close to breakeven, and the channel of good brand and Emperor's brand has been sinking. Three, the adjustment of order policy is in the long run.

The company expects earnings per share 2011~2013 to be 2.42 yuan, 3.49 yuan and 4.57 yuan respectively.

Pathfinder: take advantage first and ensure high growth.

The company is the leading domestic outdoor product industry, and the number of stores is the first in the industry, and the bonus of listing increases its first entry advantage.

The investment logic in 2012 has three main points: first, the accelerated opening of new stores in 2012, the high growth rate in spring and summer; two, the implementation of integrated marketing in an all-round way, and constantly enhancing the brand cultural value; three, the introduction of professional executives to reorganize the business, and the clearer brand positioning, market awareness and sales strategy in the next 3 years.

The company expects earnings per share 2011~2013 to be 0.35 yuan, 0.55 yuan and 0.78 yuan respectively.