Sun Huaibin: Economic Analysis And Future Trend Of Textile And Garment Industry

I am very honored to be able to attend the first China learning costume forum. industry At present, the current situation and trend of development will inform you of a situation. I will probably divide it into several parts: the first is to sum up some basic characteristics of our industry. Second, the current economic situation of our industry, including how we have been in the past year, what will we do in 2012 this year? Third, that is our future. How do we adjust the future, what is the main direction and what we need to adjust. If you have any questions, you can do some interaction on the spot. I welcome it very much.

Speaking of China's textile and garment industry, the country has a positioning, is the national. Economics Traditional pillar industries are important livelihood industries. In fact, I think two sentences should be added. It is also an important industry in the application of high technology, and of course it is also a fashion culture and creative industry. In this way, I think the description of the main characteristics of the industry may be more complete and full. That is to say, we should observe the various functions of the industry and its position in the national economy from a three-dimensional perspective. This industry can be said to be a highly market-oriented industry in our country. Why do we say so? Because its resource allocation is based on market allocation, and the production and operation of various production factors and enterprises are carried out around the market.

Second, it is an industry with absolute dominant position in the non-public economy. After the deep reform of state-owned enterprise reform in the late 90s of last century, quite a few state-owned enterprises withdrew from the industry relatively safely and honorably. Therefore, since the new century, the industry has become the main body of non-state-owned economy. Therefore, the proportion of non-state-owned enterprises has accounted for more than 97% in the asset structure, and the more coastal areas, the higher the proportion of non-state-owned enterprises, so the main body is non-public economy, especially private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises.

Third, the industry is a very complete industrial chain system. All industries in the textile industry all have cotton, wool, linen, silk, knitted, industrial and garment, as well as printing and dyeing, chemical fiber and spinning machines, forming a complete textile industry system. All of them are in our country, and are an integrated industry of upstream and downstream industries, which can be said to be very complete in China.

Fourth, the layout of this industry in our country presents a common feature, that is, the development of clustering. From the point of view of production space layout, this industry is a cluster way, or a product, or related products constitute a complete industrial chain system, which is highly concentrated in the same area, thus forming an industrial cluster of spatial layout. According to the Federation of textile industry, 174 textile industrial clusters have accounted for more than 40% of the total textile economic gross of the country. There are also some larger industrial clusters, especially the industrial clusters above the prefecture level. The estimated 30-40% is also there. Therefore, the cluster accounts for about 80% of China's textile and clothing economy, so it is the main body of a layout.

Fifth, the industry has a very clear international competitive advantage, and now we are in the international arena. market The share of our exports last year was US $210 billion, which will exceed US $250 billion this year, accounting for more than 30% of the international market share, or 33% of this proportion. That is to say, the proportion of 30% or 1/3 of the world is made in China, that is to say, the Chinese made in China is very influential in the world and occupies the highest market share. At the same time, our internationalization is more modern. Besides a large number of exports, we still have a certain amount of imports. The import is roughly 50 billion dollars a year. Besides textiles and clothing, there are also a large number of fiber raw materials, dyes and textile machinery and other related products. This provides the world's related industries with share and business opportunities in the domestic market, making the industry and the international economy, international trade and the international market very closely related, forming the main characteristics of the industry.

Why do I say this to you? The main purpose is to let you know about this industry, one is the status in the national economy, and the second is the main performance of the industry.

Now I want to talk about the second question, that is, the current economic situation and trend of this industry. In the past 2011, we should say that the development of our industry is normal from the basic performance of the economic operation. Why do we say so? Because some major economic indicators reflecting the economic operation of the industry, such as total industrial output value, investment in fixed assets, social retail, export, and the quality and efficiency of operation. So these indicators in the past 2011, we can say that basically in the two digit growth. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in the 1-11 months of last year, the total industrial output value of Enterprises above designated size was around 5 trillion yuan, up 27% from the same period last year. This figure is still not low. The output of large categories of products, chemical fiber increased by 16% compared to the same period last year, the yarn grew by 13% compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of cloth was higher than that of 14%, and clothing was slightly lower than that of the previous year, representing an increase of 8.9% over the same period, that is, 9%. So the growth rate should be normal from the perspective of integration, but if we divide it into one quarter, these indicators reflecting production can be said to be falling by quarter, and the rate of growth is slowing down.

The second is export. Exports in the month of 1-11 were $about 210000000000, which was basically the same as last year's level. The growth was 24.5% compared to last year. In 2011, the global economic downturn, the debt crisis in Europe and the United States was serious, the economic growth of the main economies was weak, the developing countries were under the pressure of inflation, and the volatility of commodities was not very good, so we had such a high export that it was very gratifying. But if our exports are carefully analyzed, their exports will be mainly driven by the improvement of our price level. Why is our price level raised last year? One is the cost factor. Last year, various factors of production, including employment, including coal, electricity, oil and gas, and the appreciation of the renminbi, so your price must be raised, otherwise you won't be able to do it. The other is to develop new products and increase the added value and bring up the level of value. Therefore, the increase in prices has pushed our exports up, the price level has increased by 21%, and the contribution to our total export growth has reached 98%. That is to say, the growth of our quantity export last year is very weak. In the 1-10 month, we only increased by 0.5%, of which the export volume of clothing increased by only 0.1%. What does this mean? It shows that the demand in the international market is still very low, and the increase in volume is almost zero. Second, there is another reason, because of the cost factors, some of our low-end manufacturing, including clothing, including home textiles, are spanferred to the surrounding countries. In the surrounding countries, there is a phenomenon called Bangladesh. So small countries export more than 10 billion, and Vietnam and Kampuchea, as well as India and Pakistan. Like these countries, we can say that we have taken some of the low end products that we can not afford to cost, and share some of our share, so this year's share in the US market is declining. Although our export volume is growing faster, it is mainly due to price increases, but the growth in exports is minimal.

Another one is domestic sales, which can be said to become more and more Chinese textiles. clothing The main supporting point of the industrial economic operation is that the total retail sales of clothing retail sales increased by 24% in the last 1-11 months, which is higher than that of the similar products in the whole society. Our domestic sales are relatively strong. At the same time, in the enterprises above Designated Size, our domestic output value has increased by more than 30%. The export delivery value of Enterprises above designated size has increased by only 14%, while the growth rate of domestic sales has exceeded 30%, indicating that domestic sales are obviously better than export sales. Moreover, the share of gross domestic product value of domestic sales reached 82% in the 1-11 months of last year, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year. That is to say, our industry is increasingly relying on the domestic market to support our overall operation. Our industry is supported by a very large and world-class market, otherwise the international market will be in turmoil once there is a great turbulence, but we still have a good room for maneuver. Therefore, the expansion of domestic demand, especially the expansion of consumption, is crucial to the stable operation of our industry.

Let's take a look at investment, including agriculture and rural investment. The textile industry increased by 34% in the 1-10 months of last year. This index exceeded the fixed level of the whole society. The new investment was 8%, which means that the project investment was mainly used in the national monetary policy and the source of funds. There was a more encouraging phenomenon in the fixed investment. The momentum of spanferring the fixed asset investment situation from eastern to central and Western China has not decreased. The fixed assets investment in the central and western regions has exceeded 50%, the whole industry is 34%, the eastern part is 24%, and the central and Western Regions have exceeded 50%. Anhui has become a region with strong momentum to undertake eastern industrial spanfer, so there are still bright spots in our investment.

Finally, we see the economic benefits. In the 1-10 month, we realized profits above 200 billion yuan, and the growth rate was 29%. The growth rate still sounded relatively high. However, compared with the first quarter, our profit growth rate can be reduced by 27%. That is to say, the growth rate of the first quarter was very high, but after October, this growth rate dropped significantly. This is about Enterprises above designated size. In fact, the profit growth level of small and medium-sized enterprises should be lower than this speed. Especially, some coastal export processing enterprises may be thinner in profit, so this situation is still above the scale.

Here is a slight explanation. This year, the situation of Enterprises above designated size has a change in the statistical caliber. Last year, it was over 5 million. In 2011, the sales revenue of 20 million could go above the scale. This year the threshold is high, so the number of enterprises on the scale above is reduced by 20 thousand at a time. If it is the full caliber, our profit situation is not so good, so here is a slight explanation, which may be inspired by small and medium sized enterprises and pure processing enterprises. So we can see that the performance of the first economic indicators is normal, the second is the emergence of production, efficiency, growth rate has dropped significantly, especially the substantial decline in the number of exports, such a basic feature of operation.

These are the data we have just passed, though we haven't had the whole year's data. Basically, we have shown the whole industry's performance in the past year. So what will happen this year? This may be a topic of concern to all of us. Not long ago, we learned about our industry in Beijing and Shanghai, including large enterprises, Chinese enterprises, small enterprises and micro enterprises. They felt their views on the trend of the industry.

After the first two meetings, we have initially felt that this year's situation may be much more severe than that of last year, especially in the first half of the year. Why do I say so? When I was talking about last year's situation, actually I did not have a few questions. Last year we actually ran normally, but some of the contradictions and problems we faced were some of the problems we did not face during the financial crisis. For example, last year we encountered a major fluctuation in cotton prices, which was the most entangled in our industry last year. Cotton prices reached a maximum of 31 thousand yuan per ton in March last year, up 15% compared with the beginning of the year, and 10 years higher than that of the previous year. But in August, especially after September, cotton prices fell sharply, now only 19 thousand yuan, down at least 60%.

Then the decline in cotton prices, there are many reasons, there are many reasons for the rise and fall, not only the problem of supply, this year, the harvest of cotton, the world is rich, our country is no exception, but also the problem of demand, because many enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises in this aspect of export demand a lot of trouble, demand has been reduced. There is also the problem of capital, because the state has greatly tightened monetary policy. In order to suppress inflation, there is a general shortage of funds, including liquidity and capital speculation, which has caused the ups and downs of cotton prices. As we all know, textile enterprises generally have a state of mind. The higher the price of cotton is, the more they buy cotton, and the lower the price of cotton, the less he buys or buys less cotton.

So when cotton prices rise, some of our good companies, some of the rich enterprises, eat a lot of cotton and increase their stock. But when the cotton is down, the price of the yarn is also falling. At this time, the cotton price we reserve is relatively high. We will obviously lose money if we use the high cotton price to produce low price cotton yarn. The more cotton prices fall, the less we place orders, because he expects prices to fall, which has an impact on the industrial chain, coupled with terminal demand and export. This makes the whole industry stable operation, and there are some problems and obstacles. The problem of cotton has a great impact on us. In the past, there was an old saying called cotton and cotton. Because of the fluctuating cotton prices, our cotton textile enterprises may have more energy to deal with cotton. They think it is much easier to make cotton and earn money than making cotton yarn. In 2010, our cotton enterprises were very happy, cotton prices rose sharply, cotton yarn also rose sharply, and sometimes even faster than cotton. But by 2011, there was a lot of changes, which caused all the money earned in 2010, and some even lost money.

The reason why cotton prices are so volatile is institutional and policy reasons. Because the cotton market is not really in line with international standards now, international cotton is now about 4-5 yuan per ton lower than domestic cotton. Such a big price difference, in principle, should be purchased domestically, but quota is needed, and the country does not issue quotas. The other is to issue quotas. If the extra quota import is subject to tax increase, this double management system will make the international and domestic markets of cotton not in line with each other. This is a big problem. {page_break}

The second problem is that we collect and store reserves, such as this regulation means does not seem to be very good, the level is not too high, and even some commercial interests in it. For our textile enterprises, we look forward to two kinds. First is integration, the second is stability. However, neither of these two points has been realized. Therefore, cotton problem has become a very important problem that restricts the steady development of our industry.

Last year, there were second problems: the problem of capital, the difficulty in financing, and the textile industry is a big ocean for small and medium-sized enterprises. It is even more difficult when money is tight, and it is also hard to relax when money is loosened. Banks are poor and rich. It is really difficult for textile enterprises to get funds from banks. There are, of course, other employment costs, including rising factor costs, coupled with the downturn in the international market. Although fundamentals are good, the growth rate is indeed decreasing.

Back to 2012 and 2012, our basic judgement of this year is that we should look at the trend of the whole industry from a tight angle. It is very likely that we will face a grim situation in the first half of the year. Why do we say so? First of all, from the international level, it can be said that many international economic organizations, including the leaders of our country, including the central economic work conference, are still negative on the international economic situation. So there may be a big problem in this area, which is the European debt crisis. At the very beginning, it is Greece, not a Greek country. It has begun to spread to the mainstream countries of the European Union. This is a very big problem. It may be related to his economic system. The currency is unified, but the finance is not unified, and these countries have a very large deficit in the financial sector, so they have to borrow money, and the debt is a chain, dragging down the relatively low level of economic development, or a relatively high level of economic development, which has dragged down their development and will drag on the world economy. The US economy has not changed radically, because his unemployment rate is very high. Although his own privileges and his government debts are very high, the bank has made up the invoice. Last year, except for Russia's economic growth, the rest of the world fell back, because inflation was generally under pressure. We have achieved a soft landing, but economic growth is also on a downward trend.

From the domestic point of view, it is different from the present formulation of the central economic work conference, that is, steady growth and sustained growth, which reflects what we are worried about. Because the downward pressure on the economy is still very large, then the three carriages that affect the macroeconomy will not expect much improvement in exports. Investment in this monetary policy and real estate regulation will still inhibit our investment. There is a process of consumption, so the downward pressure on the economy remains great. When the downward pressure on the economy is constantly strengthening, our competitive industries, and the relative capacity and some surplus industries, are also dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, which will probably bear the brunt of this downward pressure on the economy. Coupled with some fundamental problems that have not been solved, cotton problem and capital problem, and the problem of rising factor costs have not been solved, there has been no improvement, so the economic operation in the first half of this year should be rather grim. But we still need to be confident, because the textile industry is a life style industry after all. Many products are necessities of life. Besides, we are also a huge domestic demand support. The state now emphasizes the expansion of domestic demand as the basis of the whole economic development strategy, while emphasizing the development of the real economy. So in this case, we still have full confidence, because this industry is still very promising in China, because after all, the per capita GDP level and per capita consumption level are still very low, compared with the developed countries, there is still a big gap, which is the space for our future development.

At the same time, we must have confidence and confidence is very important. The spanformation and change of the external environment is something we can not control. As long as we can do our job well, we can enhance the ability to resist external risks. We can also achieve the stable development of the industry. As a competitive industry, the textile industry has many problems every year. But every year, we can come over. How can we develop it? How can we really achieve scientific development? Scientific development is the theme. Changing the mode of economic growth is the main line. Under this main line, we should identify the direction of structural adjustment, adjust the structure according to the central government's meaning, and coordinate the development independently. This is the main direction. So on the one hand, we must realize that we are soberly aware of the grim situation facing the industry. This means that we have to develop in the future. We must put the adjustment structure in a very important position.

So how do we adjust and structure? I think we can expand the structure a little bit, first of all, the total structure. The aggregate structure can be said to be the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand. We now have a total of 41 million 300 thousand tons of fiber processing last year, accounting for more than 50% of the world's total. So much fiber processing volume is faced with two demands, of which domestic demand is the main body. How can we reconciled the contradictory relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand? Because some enterprises are still in the process of investing and expanding their production capacity. We must be cautious here, because in the case of economic downturn, demand, especially effective demand, will cause some problems. Therefore, investment must be cautious at this time. The capacity is already too large. If we want to take into account the effective demand, can you coordinate with each other and coordinate with each other, we must control the expansion of capacity, especially when the demand is insufficient and the demand needs to be developed, so it is very important to coordinate the total volume relationship. Now we can see in many places that the construction of various industrial parks is, of course, justified by local economic development, social development, urbanization level and industrialization level. But if it is included in the national scope, such a large capacity and new capacity increase, we can be able to connect with the effective demand, which may lead to problems.

How can we match and coordinate development in the middle and lower reaches? Now we may not think much about it, but it is difficult to coordinate and solve it. But we must pay close attention to some important industries. For example, industrial textiles have great potential in China. We regard it as a new growth point in the textile industry. This industry accounts for only 20% of the total fiber processing volume. This proportion is far lower than that of the developed countries. The industry faces more than 20 sectors of the national economy, and there is a relationship between supply and demand. Therefore, with the development of these sectors related to the national economy, there will be a great demand for our industrial textiles, which can be intensified and can be increased. Second, the industry structure, the industry structure, because we are the industrial chain.

The third is printing and dyeing, printing and dyeing is an intermediate part of our entire textile industry. It is also an important source of value-added production for the industry. However, the printing and dyeing industry has encountered a major bottleneck in China's development. Because of the close relationship with the environment, we now have coastal areas because of the increasing demand for environmental protection by the state, so some places have begun to restrict or even prohibit the development of this industry, and even want to quit the industry and shift outward. In the Midwest of China, there are many obstacles to the development of the printing and dyeing industry. There are still some conditions that do not exist. Moreover, we all know that the source of the great rivers is in the central and western regions. If we do not solve the environmental problems in the Midwest, we will have to go to the central and western regions to develop, which will bring greater trouble to the whole environmental protection. Now we are appealed to the relevant departments of the state, such as the Ministry of environmental protection and the China Banking Regulatory Commission to put the Department into a highly polluting industry. In fact, the printing and dyeing industry is able to solve the environmental problems through technological spanformation. The printing and dyeing industry is an indispensable industry in the textile industry. If it slowly shrinks, the upgrading of the whole industrial chain and even the increase in the value of the industrial chain will result in the upgrading and spanformation of the industry. This industry needs to be strengthened, but it needs upgrading and spanformation. In addition, chemical fiber and chemical fiber have become the largest chemical fiber in the world these years. When we joined the WTO, we were worried that some parts would be impacted by the world. Now it is not so. It has already developed into the largest industry in the world, but the internal result needs to be adjusted. It is the first high technology fiber and high performance fiber in the chemical fiber, which represents the development of high performance materials in the chemical fiber industry. Our chemical fiber products should improve the ability to replace natural fibers and make cotton spinning, because natural fibers are more and more restricted by land resources, and it is difficult to increase and expand them. Therefore, we need to intensify adjustment in chemical fiber textile products. The third is to strengthen natural chemical fiber, which is renewable, and the source of raw materials is not a big problem. Therefore, it is also facing the adjustment of its industrial structure.

Another is the adjustment of regional structure, and the adjustment of regional structure is how the East and west part should have a regional industrial structure with differences but complementary. Some of them have been spanferred to the surrounding countries and have not been spanferred to the central and western regions. This shows that the spanfer of industrial structure from the Midwest to the East has not been solved well, and some cost problems may still be high. To solve this problem, I think we should have a major function orientation in the overall layout of China's textile industry. The eastern region should focus on developing some high-end manufacturing and high-end industries in the textile industry, such as R & D, design, marketing, brand, channel, logistics and so on. At the same time, some high value-added products are manufactured in the eastern region.

In the central region, combined with local location advantages and resource advantages, the central part of the central region is to undertake some processing and manufacturing links in the East, and establish and improve the manufacturing system of textile industry. The western region is mainly based on some resource advantages, and some of its national culture and clothing culture characteristics, to develop related industries. With such a top-level design with a main function, how can we turn and change? Of course, many local governments attach great importance to how to spanfer. Now I think the local governments in the central and western regions attach great importance to undertaking industrial spanfer. It seems that the enthusiasm is higher than that in the East. In fact, industrial spanfer is market behavior and enterprise behavior, that is, how to allocate such resources with the market mechanism to adjust the regional structure.

Finally, it is the organizational structure of enterprises and the organizational structure of enterprises. In order to build a strong textile country, we must have spannational configuration, establish international textile and apparel multinationals with international influence, and create an international brand with world influence. If you do not have a strong textile power, it is an empty word. That is to say, we need to merge and reorganize in the market way, and the way of capital operation to create an international multinational company with international influence, so that they will have influence, voice and even control in the international market. Only in this way can China's textile status in the world be represented.

At the same time, the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body of our industry. Their development should be coordinated with large enterprises, especially in the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in some clustered areas. They should also improve their overall quality, strengthen public services and improve their quality, so that they can complement each other with large enterprises, support the development of large enterprises, and better solve the problem of livelihood employment.

Finally, the product structure. We need to improve its quality and develop more trends. These products are needed at home and abroad, including quality, taste, value added and brand names. Because we are the real economy, and ultimately we need to talk with products. Then around the adjustment of this structure, we can say that this is the main direction of our industry's future development. These main directions are to use some weapons and means that can reflect the needs of the industry to advance our structural adjustment. What is the weapon and means? It is often mentioned by the Federation of textile industry today, and it is also the four major strategic tasks of the science and technology, brand, sustainable development and talent that Du always talks about. If these strategic tasks can be effectively implemented, it will be able to effectively promote structural adjustment because structural adjustment is the result.

Science and technology is very clear. It is called "50110". In the next five years, the frontier of the entire textile and garment industry's scientific and technological development is in need of tackling key projects, how to promote industrialization projects, and how to promote advanced and practical technologies. In this outline of science and technology, we have written clearly, and there are many specific projects. The key is to increase investment in science and technology, build a scientific and technological innovation system, mobilize all mobilizing forces in society, and of course, take enterprises as the main body, market oriented, government support and industries to serve to advance the level of technological progress.

As a brand, we should take the development of the brand as an important symbol of building the soft power of the textile power. On the basis of the progress of science and technology, we can reflect the comprehensive strength and international competitiveness of our textile industry through the brand building, which will bring us more value-added returns. To create a brand and create a brand, we must first create an ecological environment that adapts to promote the growth of the national independent brand. This ecological environment includes both policy environment, market order environment, consumption environment, cultural environment, technological environment, and the environment of the industrial chain, so as to lay the foundation for the growth of the brand and the success of the brand, and provide the soil. The second is that we must truly build, and practice the four in one Chinese brand value system of quality, innovation, quick response and social responsibility, and implement it into the practice of independent brand to promote the growth of brand. These four entities can produce many specific work, how to improve the quality, how to improve the level of design creativity, how to speed up the rapid response, including the power of channel, and the social responsibility. Only in this way can we truly create a Chinese brand with international influence and broad international consumer recognition, so that the brand attractiveness can be made in China.

We must highlight three aspects of sustainable development. The first is low carbon and low carbon, mainly for energy conservation, energy consumption reduction, and low carbon production system. The second is green, mainly to build a cleaner production system, reduce emissions and reduce environmental pollution. The third is circulation. Recycling is mainly the recycling and comprehensive utilization of resources, especially fiber resources, waste textiles, how to make it recycled to increase the shortage of fiber resources, and also achieve the purpose of circular economy development. Only in this way can a powerful country have a foundation for sustainable development. However, technology, brand and sustainable development are fundamentally talents, and talents are the foundation of a strong country. This talent can be divided into one kind of structure. It needs training to create leading figures, including management and science and technology. At the same time, it needs some innovative, some senior executives with industry responsibility and international standards. Of course, there is also a need for a qualified personnel with skills and skills to form a complete talent team.

To build such a team, we need a variety of ways, including the way of training such as today, more of our practice, the practice of real knowledge, the age of heroes. In short, we need to build this team well so as to promote the development of science and technology, brand development and sustainable development.

Only in this way can we really build up the modern textile industrial clothing system with structural optimization, advanced technology, high added value, clean and safe employment capacity. If the system can be truly established and perfected, textile power can truly be established, and the Chinese textile industry can make new contributions to China's national economic and social development.