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2012 Cotton Price Will Appear N Trend.

2012/1/15 10:54:00 34

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2012 Cotton Price N Trend

This round of cotton price fluctuations can be breathtaking.

The sharp fluctuation of cotton price has a direct impact on the production and the textile industry.

Management

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Xu Wenying, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, said that in 2010, cotton prices rose sharply, in addition to the reduction of planting area and the reasons for the decline in production.

The fall of cotton price in 2011 can be seen as a regression in a sense.

For the domestic cotton price in 2012, we should first pay attention to the basic supply and demand of cotton.

In terms of demand, domestic enterprises

cotton

The demand is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.

Huang Junfei, manager of research and consulting department of Futures Company of the Yangtze River, said that the export situation of China's textile and clothing was not optimistic, while the pulling power of domestic demand was limited for a short time, and the situation of production reduction, production restriction and shut-down was widespread. Cotton consumption showed a continuous downward trend.

The supply of cotton is relatively abundant.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, "2011 cotton nationwide"

yield

The survey report shows that the overall growth of cotton in China is still a normal preference.

In the 2011 year, the average output per unit area was 95 kg / mu, an increase of 11.6%, with a total output of 7 million 548 thousand tons, an increase of 21.2%.

According to the data of China Fiber Inspection Bureau, in 2011, the quality of new cotton fine staple cotton was better than that of the same period last year, with an average grade of 3.03, an increase of 0.41 grade over the same period last year.

At the same time, according to Huang Junfei, as at the end of November 2011, China imported more than 2 million 500 thousand tons of cotton, a significant increase compared to the same period last year, and the potential supply in the future is still abundant.

"It is estimated that the world cotton market will be oversupplied in 2012."

Huang Junfei said.

Look at the macro policy.

In 2012, China basically established the stability of monetary policy and the policy of ensuring economic growth.

This will play a certain role in promoting cotton prices in the medium and long term.

At the same time, the cotton purchase and storage policy implemented by the state also plays an important supporting role in the fall of cotton prices.

In addition, as a substitute for cotton, the price of chemical fiber is also worthy of attention.

Huang Junfei said that from the comparison of the monthly average price of polyester staple fiber and 328 cotton prices in China, the price difference between cotton and PET staple after the National Day in 2011 will be negative as cotton prices drop sharply and Dacron continues to rise, which will stimulate cotton demand.

Lin Yaokun, deputy general manager of Dongguan textile and Textile Co., Ltd., also said that when cotton prices are soaring, the chemical fiber is widely used by enterprises. In the near future and in the future, it will be a trend for textile enterprises to use cotton in large quantities.

After a comprehensive analysis of various factors, Xu Wenying, vice president of the China Textile Industry Federation, believes that the current cotton price is basically the same and still needs a stable process. It is expected that there will be a rebound in 2012.

Huang Junfei also gave a specific forecast of cotton prices in 2012. He said that in 3 and April, the relative high point of cotton prices in the first half of the year would be possible, and cotton prices in the whole year were likely to be N.

The international cotton price will fluctuate around the 80 cent ~95 cents / pound interval, while the domestic cotton price will have the greatest probability of change in the range of 19000 yuan ~23000 yuan / ton.