Who Is The Ultimate Winner Through The Textile And Garment Industry Cycle?

Most of China's textile and garment enterprises do not form high-end proprietary brands and channel control power in the international market. At present, the industrial spanfer of low-end manufacturing links has already become a clue. Therefore, enterprises encounter the embarrassing situation that the manufacturing links are passively moved out, and high-end fields (brands and channels) are hard to break through in the short term.

According to the traditional industry life cycle theory, Chinese textile and garment enterprises will face the risk of leaving the industrial chain, but in recent years, the rise of Chinese demand has become the biggest opportunity for local enterprises to cross the traditional life cycle.

The textile and garment listed companies with brand premium capability are expected to pass through the cycle and continue to raise prices on the premise of volume increase. The relative advantages of men's clothing listed companies are obvious, and the main listed companies are steady. inside Meticulous management is more in place, and the ability to resist systemic risk is stronger.

Following the traditional industrial life cycle theory, it is a historical rule to grow from maturity to maturity, and then gradually decline or even withdraw. Although most of China's textile and garment enterprises are mainly outside demand, they do not form high-end proprietary brands and channel control power in the international market. At present, the industrial spanfer of low-end manufacturing links has become a clue. Therefore, enterprises are facing the embarrassing situation that the manufacturing links are passively removed and the high-end areas (brands and channels) are hard to break through in the short term.

At present, the leading enterprises in the global apparel industry chain are mainly concentrated in developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and so on. By controlling the key links such as R & D, design, brand and channel, the enterprises gain most of the value added share of the industrial chain. In 2010, China's textile and clothing direct exports accounted for 32.71% of the global textile and clothing trade. If considering other factors such as indirect export, according to GF Negotiable securities According to the macro group's calculation, the export dependence of China's textile and textile products industry reached 52.87% and 37.17% respectively. But with the rapid development of China's economy, the price advantage of resources has gradually weakened, and the Southeast Asian countries represented by Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries have highlighted the relative cost advantages, coupled with the continued appreciation of the local currency, the low-end textile clothing orders have shifted outward.

In the first three quarters of 2011, although the market share of China is still the largest, the negative growth rate (-3.87%) has been negative, and the substitution effect of Vietnam and Kampuchea has already appeared. Ten years ago, China had the largest share of global OEM for Nike shoes (40%), and now it has been overtaken by Vietnam. At present, most textile and garment enterprises in China are mainly outside demand, but they do not form high-end proprietary brands and channel control power in the international market. Their advantages are only reflected in processing and manufacturing. Therefore, if the manufacturing industry is spanferred passively, it will mean withdrawal. At the same time, the enterprises retained by the two industrial spanfer control the high-end links of the apparel industry chain. The first advantage of the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea in brand and channel is Chinese enterprises can not overstep in the short term.

According to the traditional industry life cycle theory, Chinese textile and garment enterprises will face the risk of leaving the industrial chain, but in recent years, the rise of Chinese demand has become the biggest opportunity for local enterprises to cross the traditional life cycle.

Customer group, consumption ability and consumption intention are three major factors that determine the capacity of clothing consumption market. The huge demand created by the rising of consumption power and the rise of brand awareness has also attracted many foreign brands to enter. Both the mass clothing brand and the luxury brand all regard the Chinese market as the biggest increment in the future. The order of foreign demand slump or the loss of industrial spanfer can be made up from the domestic demand market. Local enterprises will pass through the traditional life cycle theory and take the lead in the upgrading of the value chain in China at the same time of releasing domestic demand, and create and enhance the popularity and reputation of the independent brand in a relatively relaxed environment. Despite the fact that international brands have entered the domestic market, brand The growth of the apparel market has just started, and it can grow by virtue of the advantages of local enterprises, the advantages of channel and the cost-effective product positioning.

Combined with the macro level in 2012, CPI will fall back, but this period is also accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth. CPI is positively related to the growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods, so the fall of CPI in the future is bound to slow down the growth of retail sales, and the growth of the industry's revenue will also slow down. The fall of CPI in the first half of 2012 made the effect of raising price obviously weakened. There is a strong positive correlation between GDP and consumer confidence index. Therefore, the fall of GDP will reduce the consumption intention. At the same time, the decline of economic growth will bring about a decline in corporate profitability and decrease the consumption power. Considering the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, the growth of volume will also be under pressure. The effect of price increase and squeeze demand has emerged.

Under such a macro environment, textile and garment listed companies with brand premium capability are expected to pass through the cycle and continue to raise prices on the premise of volume increase. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the growth rate of men's clothing listed companies has been consistently higher than that of the industry average. In 2012, the order of spring and summer will increase the price synchronously, and the relative advantage is obvious. Meanwhile, the men's clothing industry is in a mature stage. The main listed companies are steady in operation, internal fine management is more in place, and the ability to resist systemic risk is stronger. For example, seven wolves, nine Mu Wang, Hinur and so on, the growth of the listed companies in leisure industry will increase in the future, and the increase will be slowed down when the economy slows down in the first half of next year. Although there are channel pressing phenomena in the home textile sub industry listed companies, they are still in the period of growth.