E-Commerce Reflection: Luxury B2C Will Become The Next Bubble?

In the wave of China's consumption pformation and upgrading, luxury goods and luxury luxury websites have become the targets of capital crazily after group buying.

After the group buying bubble, capital went crazy.

But the latest news is that the Hohhot network is located in this market, where executives fled, websites were blackened, and employees failed to negotiate salary.

Luxury B2C e-commerce, President of Yu Chun network, Hou Yu Jiang, said that the capital environment is so bad that the group buying bubble has just burst, and capital flows to luxury goods and luxury goods providers again. Those who will not spend money and spend money will surely lose a lot, because "in the short run, they have lost the possibility of refinancing."

In 2011, the news of luxury website financing was revealed.

According to the statistics released recently by Qing Ke research center, since 2010, there have been 23 investment events related to jewellery, packaging, clothing, clothing and other luxury e-business websites in China's equity investment market, which disclosed 21 INVESTMENT events.

The news of the sensational electricity supplier financing comes from the show network.

In March 2010, after being awarded $20 million by the top international venture capital KPCB, he announced another 100 million dollar B round of financing in August.

The leading investor comes from the famous American private equity fund Huaping investment group.

Kai Peng Hua Ying.

Public data show: Jingdong mall in 2009 B round of financing $21 million, Alibaba in 2004 B round of $82 million.

"It has set the largest B round of financing records in the history of China's electricity supplier industry."

The media described it so.

Throwing money, throwing money, throwing money

Luxury and luxury luxury websites are hot.

Fifth Avenue CEO Sun Yafei has a lot of complaints about it. "Like group buying, today is 50 million and tomorrow is 100 million."

She said that she was out of business.

"Just smash money and produce a pile of bubbles.

Listing, the hot potato to shareholders to walk away from this mode, and finally a dead end.

She believes that the location of the B2C electricity supplier in this market will never suddenly explode like group buying.

"It's impossible to smash ads on the streets. Tomorrow, a lot of people bite their teeth and buy tens of thousands of bags immediately."

It's hard to get fat and spoil the industry.

But she believes that its pace of development has not slowed down to an indescribable level. This is a gradual business.

In 2008, Sun Yafei saw a data.

2000, China

Sun Yafei approached the VC several times.

In 2011, the economic observer has described: "disappointed, finding that they do not understand the industry at all, and are almost full of unrealistic fantasies."

Similar websites in the US and France are booming.

It has reached the scale of 2~3 billion dollars a year. Venture capital generally believes that China will also be able to do so.

Some VCs not only have high expectations, but also add gambling agreements to additional conditions.

"They neglected the luxury culture began in China in 2000, and has been deeply rooted in Europe and America."

Sun Yafei responded.

She told reporters of "entrepreneurial state" that most of the VCs, who were "benefited" in the Jingdong mode, saw the industry with the pleasure of seeing a sudden explosion of the market. They committed the same problem of doing their own investors, and took a pile of numbers to see something superficial.

In fact, we do not understand enterprises at all.

In the hot spot of luxury website investment, a phenomenon is that the B2C business of vertical luxury goods is only a few of them, such as "excellent", "still good", "respecting cool" and "Fifth Avenue".

In terms of financing, according to the information disclosed publicly, in addition to Shang Yi's investment in the luxury B2C business, the largest investment (in July 2011 became a capital investment, C round of financing $50 million), the Fifth Avenue in early 2008 did not melt into the money, so far rely on its own funds development; in April 2011, Zun cool on-line, its start-up funds from the founder of the flourishing dragon, Yan Zhifeng, a 2 million angel investment.

Most of the business people, known as luxury B2C, or B2C, who sell the concept of luxury goods and electricity providers, are mainly selling international two or three line fashion department stores and selling a small number of luxury goods.

The outside world will be divided into luxury luxury online shopping camps, such as walking show, vip.com, ihush, Yintai, fashion, Jiapin and so on.

Among them, vip.com, ihush as the representative, in marketing is the concept of time sale, that is, VP (prototype from French Venteprivee.com) mode.

Two months after Huaping's investment, CEO, Ji Wen Hong, told SOHO in Sanlitun, Beijing, that luxury goods accounted for about 30%, but they did not want to be known as a luxury selling website, but rather positioned in the position of high-end fashion department store B2C.

Sanlitun SOHO is a branch of the show in Beijing, talking about vertical luxury.

A large number of investment concentrated into the luxury luxury B2C business.

Hou Yujiang, President of Zun cool, said that in fact, they had got the first round investment of 30 million yuan in the first half of the year.

And an industry insider named Yi Rong said that some so-called luxury goods and luxury luxury electric providers, which are tens of millions of dollars, are actually putting "satellites".

The money we get is not as much as it disclosed.

I didn't get any money.

In addition, in order to catch investment or under the pressure of investors, take money to smash ads and sell sales. "Jiapin 30 million has changed the advertising cost by 37 million, and the 37 million of advertising fee is 40 million."

Luxury B2C electricity suppliers are priced at more than 1800 yuan, including 3000 yuan.

The B2C of luxury goods is mostly between 100 yuan and 600 yuan, of which vip.com is the lowest and 160 yuan.

Yi Rong said that the price of this kind of electricity supplier is generally downward. "Investors want to perform their best and rush to the water."

Gong Wenxiang, a former vice president of Xiu Xiu network, told the magazine that the prospect of the electricity supplier entering the luxury sector is promising and is a major trend in the consumer goods market.

"But an important question is whether you have identified the rhythm."

In mid December 2011, the Research Report on China luxury online shopping industry released in 2011, said that the scale of online shopping pactions in the mainland of China (part C2C and B2C part) will reach 10 billion 730 million yuan, achieving an annual growth of 68.8%.

But Gong Wenxiang disagreed with the data. "The actual market share is very small, so small that it can only reach the scale of 1 billion and 2 billion."

In November 2011, Jingdong launched luxury website 360top.com.

Gong estimates that this may be due to the pressure of profit, and forced to make a wrong choice.

Jingdong has done a lot in sales, low buying, low selling, high user cost and limited profit space.

"Thinking that high-end products, which are worth thousands of yuan, can bring high profits, but in fact, they go into another misunderstanding, because the market has not yet risen to that point."

Gong said that in 2008, the price of e-commerce in China was 80 yuan, and 80% of people could only buy something under 100 yuan. When they went up to sell luxury goods, he thought the market was too small, and the pace of doing business was too fast.

Gong said that the average unit price of e-commerce in China is now only at the level of 150~200 yuan.

Gong Wenxiang said that vip.com is the most successful one in luxury goods and luxury luxury B2C business, and it should be listed on New Year's day.

"It's a matter of positioning."

He said, vip.com seems to be selling some luxury goods and high-end look, but in fact its unit price has been moving down from the original 300 yuan to the current 160 yuan.

However, the total value of luxury goods is only 5% to 10%, but its unit price rises all the way. In 2010, when he left the show, it was 300 yuan. "Now it is 500 yuan, 600 yuan, 800 yuan......

According to Ji Wen Hong Ben, it is close to 600 yuan.

"

"No matter luxury, luxury luxury B2C business, or VC did not want to be together."

Gong Wenxiang said, it is very likely that the new bubble will start after the group buying bubble burst.

Natural short board

In March 2011, Lao Rong (Wang Juntao), known as "the father of e-commerce in China", had a chat with the author in a cafe in Beijing.

Talking about the topic of electricity supplier bubble, he said, one of the most dangerous types is "pure information service or providing second-hand information, all kinds of urban information of the electricity supplier."

People thought that the threshold of entry was low, so everyone thought it was easy to do, so anyone could do it. As a result, when we went in, everyone was fighting for money. Then he said, "I think group buying is the way it is."

After a "low threshold" business burst, high-end online luxury websites are being tested by the high threshold.

In 2007, Sun Yafei returned from Wall Street to start his own business and put Fifth Avenue on the line, with only $3.4 million on his hands.

She summed up VC's concerns at that time:

One of the first problems is that when the luxury online shopping was done, the payment channels were not smooth.

In 2009, all credit cards opened to third party platforms were paid only 500 yuan a day.

"A bag of 10000 yuan, people scored 20 bills, it takes a long time to pay the money."

Two, the unit price is high.

"If a bag is lost, a courier runs away with a pack of tens of thousands of bags. How can the logistics company compensate you?" logistics has pressure and does not support cash on delivery.

Three, "China has numerous fakes", customers have no trust in online shopping luxuries.

"VCs think your products are so expensive that people do not trust what you sell online. You need a long, long time to cultivate this market and accumulate your reputation and reputation."

The most serious problem is the scarcity of luxury goods and the shortage of supply chains.

Brands are very concerned about online sales. Do you damage my price system? The point is, the brand image I have developed for a long time is likely to be damaged.

At the beginning of the Fifth Avenue, Sun Yafei and the brand at the China Office talked about online sales, "all of them hit the wall."

She said.

The aforementioned alias insiders said Jingdong plan in 2010

"Beckham and Zhang Ziyi have ordered an Hermes for two or three years.

I ran to LV group and said, "give me 5 hundred million LV."

Definitely not.

It only sells in exclusive stores, providing services for quality customer service. "

In October 2011, when he had not moved his office to the Peng run building in Xiaoyun Road, Beijing, Hou Yu Jiang said this.

Italy outlets and some American buy + domestic traders purchase, is the domestic luxury B2C business model, earn exchange rate, low buy high sell price difference.

When Fifth Avenue started, its sources came from brand dealers, buying off its over season goods.

The sale of goods will be discounted in the past season. Online shopping can be sold at a price of 5~6 discount, which is obviously cheaper than the counter located in China.

"No matter how the brand is suppressed, he will sell it in order to increase the cash flow."

Sun Yafei said.

"The risk is enormous."

Gong Wenxiang said, according to his understanding, at least in the luxury cosmetics, no domestic appliance manufacturer has been directly authorized by the brand dealers to sell online.

He believes that most of the domestic luxury goods suppliers are not yet on the scale.

Some brands may also feel that this kind of website helps to digest their inventory.

But if there is a brand to do online 10 billion, while the electricity business 1 billion, 2 billion of the sales scale to go up, the brand is bound to think that this has affected its offline sales.

Gong Wenxiang therefore judged that under such circumstances, one head into the market, making the industry's eldest brother of the electricity supplier, may be more than one brand business to the court, was hit by a huge number of claims.

Another situation is that only one or two large electric providers get the right to sell online, while the supply channels of other businesses will be closed for that purpose.

However, there is another description of a piece of information sent by ihush to entrepreneurial state.

In recent years, more and more luxury families have been bought by commercial groups, such as LVMH, which is regarded as a result of commercialization of luxury goods and is regarded as mass production.

Vertical luxury B2C business, Sun Yafei think this is also a helpless move.

"The era of creating Jingdong" myth "is over. It is even more impossible to be a Taobao.

Only do deep, do fine.

Danger of becoming bigger

Old banyan said, open online supermarket type, horizontal do, sell anything electric business, "will not produce a bubble is hard to say, but it is very dangerous."

Dangdang, excellent and Jingdong three companies are doing this direction, but these three different industries already have a certain foundation:

"In the next 35 years, there will be no major disasters. Unless the policy-makers stay in good condition and do not go out to fight with others, it is hard to say.

But now some people say that Jingdong has something to do with it, and I do it. He has three hundred million of whom I vote for three hundred million. I don't think so. You have money, but you don't have time to overcome the difficulties that it has overcome, and to integrate those industrial chains. These are all big icebergs under the surface. They can not be built at a blow, nor can they be fixed by money.

If we look for such a way again, we need to have a strong ability to integrate resources.

First, each product line must have some control; second logistics distribution requirements are very high, because everything is sold, so the warehouse is different from the warehouse that used to put printers only; third, the ability to meet the comprehensive requirements of customers is very high; fourth, there is the most serious challenge, everything is sold, generally speaking, the profit is relatively low. "Carrefour's gross profit is definitely lower than that of Xinguang world."

So for your management ability and cost control requirements are very high, it is very difficult to do the online supermarket mode with the loose cooperation with suppliers.

In March 2011 and August, after two rounds of intensive financing, the show took a team of thousands of people and headed for the direction of the platform company.

Ji Wenhong, sitting in the living room, was slightly tired, "to run faster and larger."

Ji Wenhong hoped that the show would be a combination of Joy City and Xinguang heaven and earth.

At the same time, the show turned off.

In addition to obtaining exclusive distribution rights of foreign brands in China, it has also engaged in joint stock cooperation with some brands.

Its 50% format lies in the supply chain construction.

In 2010, Xiu Xiu founded DM magazine "Xiu PLUS".

"We can't fully position that we are electric providers."

Ji Wenhong expressed this.

People in the industry worry that too many tentacles are coming out, and the product line is too long.

Gong Wenxiang's view is that if it fails to scale like Amazon and Taobao, the premature extension of the industrial chain is probably just a display.

Some people in the industry have expressed a similar view. At this stage, they should find their core competitiveness to get the market instead of expanding it blindly.

In Yi Rong's view, compared to the majority of luxury luxury B2C business, the advantage of the show is "it has the ability to control the supply chain."

The electricity supplier bubble theory, the old banyan is optimistic, "now, it is only at the turn of spring and summer, there are some small riots."

He believes that in the Internet field, it is unlikely that the global collapse will occur again around 2000.

The catering industry is very mature, with shops and doors closed every day, but no one ever said it was a bubble.

One of his tips is that he should not be a capital dominant type in the electricity supplier. Now he is a commodity society. He can take the initiative to take part in the competition with his own means.

He said there must be some irrationality in inequality.

"There are unequal places in business. If you challenge them, you will have business opportunities. Other places are not equal. They will go to ruin."

Why do you like shopping on Taobao?

"You can be very free and equal. Even if you have direct means of countering him, you can give him a bad review, but this game rule is not equal in the unequal commercial structure, that is, your right to speak and Carrefour's right to speak are totally unequal, but on the Internet, you may even be more powerful than he is.

Wang Xing: group buying and traditional electric business are not a game.

Amazon's success is hard to copy, someone can stay up, someone can't stay up.

Some people say that e-commerce has been more financing before the industry, and recently several unsuccessful listing shows that the capital market is not recognized, the market is small, it is a bubble.

In recent years, the financing of e-commerce seems to be a lot, but to take the group purchase, it is not much money, the real first round of investment, the second round of investment enterprises are not much, the number is relatively small, the group purchase this industry will not exceed more than 300 million US dollars.

You have to know that a lot of families are very boasting. The press conference is not about how much money I have already made, and how much I expect to finance.

The real bubble is a lot of money, but you think he is not worth so much money.

From the perspective of electricity consumption, there is no doubt that the market is getting bigger and bigger.

In the final analysis, we still need to solve customer needs.

The electronic commerce market is certainly big, but it is still very early. Just like the data you often quoted, e-commerce accounts for about 8% of the total retail sales in the United States. In China, it accounts for 2%~3%, and the US e-commerce is still rising. We still have a big gap.

Big demand is no problem.

From another perspective, I think the share of electricity providers in China may be larger than that in the United States, or the share of new business enterprises will be larger.

Because there are many more successful companies in the United States, which also make use of the Internet to occupy a certain share of online sales, and the traditional Chinese offline enterprises are less firm than those under the US line.

The most typical example is that the clothing brand in the United States is very mature and deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and will not launch a new clothing brand like fan.

Therefore, some of China's traditional industries have not yet grown very large and suffer the impact of the Internet. The proportion of new electric business cake to the emerging enterprises will be larger than that of the United States.

Or there are some markets that are new, such as red wine. The consumption of Chinese red wine is very weak, and the share of liquor is very small compared with that of liquor. Then the online brand is making red wine, and the market is at an early stage.

So what is the position of group buying in the electricity supplier? Group buying actually solves a big problem, that is, the service of e-commerce.

Whether Jingdong, Taobao, Dangdang, and excellence, they are all doing the e-commerce of goods, and the e-business of service has just started. This is a huge market.

The first year of the traditional electricity supplier was in 1998. I think 2010 is the first year of China's service e-commerce, and 2012 will be a year of rapid growth of service e-commerce.

Even the consumption of services exceeds that of goods.

Do you think so? How much of every month's expenses, expenses and pactions are on the service? In the final analysis, what we do is an electronic business without housing. The original thing on the Internet is not to be sent to your home by logistics, but to people in the shop.

You can eat in the shop, do massage, get a haircut, and watch a movie. It's also a matter of O2O.

We use the Internet to help offline businesses, enabling them to enjoy the benefits of the Internet.

But from the cost of the electricity supplier now, this time the advertising level is indeed more and more expensive. The most typical hao123's largest navigation station, the advertising price must have doubled.

Logistics and warehousing are rising.

In fact, for the US mission, we did not feel the pressure of these two parts.

The United States didn't advertise very much. We didn't go to the streets to brush public buses. We also believed in the spread of word of mouth and socialization.

70% of the users who visited the US group knew about the US mission through their friends' introduction, and we did not need the cost of warehousing and logistics.

I think we should pay more attention to input output than to throw money away.

The key is whether there is accumulation.

Now that you are advertising someone coming, no one will come when the ad stops, that is, there is no accumulation.

Spending money is always a very easy thing. All families can advertise. Others may not remember you. You have to keep throwing, but you can't afford it, or else you just feed the crowd.

Where did we spend our money? A large part of it was built on the IT system with more than tens of millions of dollars invested.

IT system is related to our ground team. We have 97 cities throughout the country, a total of more than 2000 people, we need to have a good IT system to co-ordinate and coordinate. From another perspective, you have to help more traditional offline businesses IT and information, so the IT system also involves businesses and consumers under the service line. Our payment is very automated and businesses are also quite satisfied.

We have to have some systems to reach his terminal, which is the real thing for O2O.

ERP and CRM are familiar with each other. We can do very little, including our own development, and combine with smart phones.

The electricity supplier is much more complicated than the social networking site. Not only is it necessary to do well the experience of the terminal consumers, it also needs a backstage system to enable the company to deliver products and services at low cost.

All electricity providers use IT technology or other technologies to achieve low cost and high efficiency.

Group buying because of the need to do services, so the traditional electricity supplier is not a game.

I heard that many customers spend a lot of money in marketing, Jingdong I do not quite understand.

Every enterprise must have income and expenses, right? There are two parts in the flow of money: part of the investor's money, whether it is private placement or IPO, and the other part is the money the consumer has pulled out.

The money of traditional electricity providers will flow to the logistics and warehousing industry, and will flow to manufacturing, production or marketing. If he spends money on advertising online, the money will still be circulating in the big industry of the Internet.

From this point of view, in fact, the mission of the American League is to let some of the new money flow into this industry, that is, the consumption of the service industry. I think we are opening a big mouth for the whole industry and having more money inflow.

Recently, I have been saying to my colleagues that you have more confidence in the future, and that you will be more patient now.

In the long run, because of the difficult road, but in fact, it is also very fast. In 2011, it was second years, and there were more than a billion pactions. It was already very fast. There was nothing to complain about, and the demand for businesses under the line was also very strong.

This is a big thing and takes a long time.

As with other sectors of the Internet, the threshold of entrepreneurship is very, very low, but the threshold for success is as high as ever.

Now you open a company, when you buy a CEO, buy a domain name rent server operation, developing software is easy, the cost of startup is very low, but this does not mean that you can succeed.

You can also take part in a marathon, but whether you can run to the finish line or whether you can win medals is entirely different.

There will be a lot of elimination in the middle.

Group buying industry is the most typical. From March 2010 to the thousand regiment war, the number of actual operations is less and less. Some of them can not afford to lose, but they will eventually clean up more than half.

The market is bigger, but it is impossible for everyone to win. A marathon race runs less and produces gold, silver and bronze medals.

The most successful electricity supplier in the world is Amazon. Amazon is very typical of rapid expansion. It spent a lot of money in the middle, and it didn't make a profit for a long time. It didn't make any profit before going public, but it made use of the stage of no profit, made investment in infrastructure, and built a very high barrier.

This is a very successful story, but this success is hard to replicate, requiring time, place, and harmony.

What does it represent? It has enough patience. It takes a long time, a lot of money, and a very good person.

Some people can survive, some people can not afford to endure.

I think we should believe in the inherent laws of the market. More capital investment will not make the market bigger. The market is determined by its inherent nature.

If you invest short-term funds, you may speed up the market development, but will not change the nature of the market.

For example, how big the group buying industry can be, how many consumers and how many businesses it serves, which is not so much as how much money you invest.

From my point of view, there is still a lot of money in the accounts, but we have to take precautions, no matter what the bubble is about to burst, or how to raise money.

I don't know how to start a business successfully. I don't know a word, but why? Two reasons.

Reason 1: no money; reason two: no confidence.

Our A round of investment is Sequoia, B round investment is Alibaba, Aurora Borealis, warden international, Sequoia, I believe they are familiar with the capital market.

Alibaba has a lot of stamina. It started in 1998, and only partially listed B2B in 2007. But the time is very good, almost at that peak.

And this stage may not even be on the market.

DST (founded in 2005, is one of the largest Internet Co in the Russian region and the Eastern European market, and one of the world's leading investment groups). The fundamental logic is that companies do not need IPO. Investment institutions can give you money, do not give you restrictions, you develop.

When you want to go on the market, you don't want to go public. I throw money to you. I earn 10 times or 30 times the back.

Good mode has so much room after listing, so there is no need for him to go public.

They voted for Facebook, Twitter, Groupon and Zynga, and Jingdong also voted for DST.

From a 5 or 20 year cycle, we should let time stand on our side.