New Loans Of The Four Major Banks Reached 300 Billion&Nbsp; It'S Hard To Break The Trillion Yuan Credit In The First Month

This year, can China's banking industry continue to increase in the first month since 2009 loan It seems that a question mark is needed to mark the law that exceeds one trillion yuan.

On January 31, according to authoritative sources, as of January 28, the four major banks of industry, agriculture, China and construction had newly increased RMB loans of about 300 billion yuan, shareholding system The new scale of banks is more than 100 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, in the first 28 days of January, the scale of all new loans in the banking industry may be between 750 billion and 800 billion.

This also means that if the new loans in January 2012 want to exceed 1 trillion yuan, then the remaining three working days need to rush to lend 200 billion yuan to 250 billion yuan, which is really difficult.

"The credit supply in January this year will not be more than that in previous years." The head of the credit department of a large state-owned bank said that the effective working days in January were short due to the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival. "The holiday will start on the 21st, and there is little possibility of surprise after the holiday."

Unfortunately, due to seasonal factors, deposit fluctuations are increasing. According to the above authority, as of the middle of January, the deposits of the four major state-owned banks had lost as much as 800 billion yuan. "The deposits are not enough, and it is estimated that after the Spring Festival, everyone will have to press down on loans."

Behind the credit blowout in the banking industry, it is just after 2012 that the macroeconomic downward trend has become increasingly obvious, and the demand for corporate loans has decreased. "Our branch's quota has not been used up yet." On January 31, a corporate business person from Xi'an Branch of a medium-sized bank admitted to the reporter that their unused quota needs to be transferred by the head office to other branches.

　　 It's hard to break trillion yuan of credit at the beginning of the year

"Early launch, early return" can explain the logic of Chinese banks' centralized credit launch at the beginning of the year.

Up to now, most institutions predict that the credit in the first month of 2012 is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, and the market is still optimistic about the credit supply in January. What supported the optimistic judgment of the market was the previous news that the year-on-year growth rate of new loans of commercial banks in the first quarter could be above 5%.

Previously, the four major banks of industry, agriculture, China and construction had initially set 2012 credit The investment scale was about 850 billion yuan, 650 billion yuan, 600 billion yuan and 750 billion yuan, respectively. Compared with the new loan target set at the beginning of 2011, except for the slight decline of Agricultural Bank of China, other banks have increased.

On January 31, Peng Wensheng, the chief economist of CICC, said in the latest research report that, based on the 8.8 trillion yuan of new loans in the whole year and 35% of the first quarter, the new loans in the first quarter were 3.08 trillion yuan, and the average monthly new loans were about 1 trillion yuan. The loan growth may rise.

However, after entering 2012, the realistic foundation supporting commercial banks' credit sprint as in previous years is weakening. In addition to the aforementioned holiday factors such as the Spring Festival and New Year's Day mentioned by the people of state-owned big banks, factors such as deposit loan ratio and line management make banks unable to lend.

"At the end of last year, the credit rushed violently, and even released some loans planned to be issued in 2012 in advance." The head of a state-owned large bank Shanxi Branch told reporters that there was no sign of credit easing.

In fact, the power of commercial banks' credit supply is still the same, but the bull's-eye of previous years is less. As said by the aforementioned people from the credit department of the big bank, "At present, there is no direction for the credit extension that can be launched suddenly in the past. In the past, there were four trillion projects supported by the state to be invested. Now, the new loans of many new projects have been strictly controlled by the regulators."

"The demand for loans has shrunk, and many enterprises are indeed waiting to see. Some enterprises dare not take big orders because they can't digest them," said the relevant person in charge of Minsheng Bank when asked by investors.

For small and medium-sized banks like Minsheng Bank, a key constraint is the high deposit loan ratio. As the above people of Minsheng Bank said, "big banks are easy to offset loans, while small banks have deposits bottleneck 。” According to its disclosure, the bank's 50 billion yuan financial bonds have been approved, and is currently contacting buyers to negotiate terms and interest rates. The issuance window is set for March.

　　 Four major banks' new loans of 300 billion yuan in the first month are hard to break through trillion yuan

By the middle of January, the loss of deposits of the four major state-owned banks had been more than 800 billion yuan. At the same time, the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival in 2012 are concentrated in January, and centralized cash withdrawal has a greater impact on deposits.

In response to the recent call to relax the deposit loan ratio regulation requirements, the middle management of a state-owned bank said frankly, "It is not easy to relax the deposit loan ratio requirements. The regulator would rather let it be stable, rather than see the credit extended too fast, resulting in systemic risk."

Another secondary factor is that since the second half of 2011, private lending has become increasingly fierce, and the living conditions of small enterprises have worsened, making commercial banks more cautious in credit provision.

　　 "3:3:2:2" launch rhythm remains unchanged

However, in the view of the above large bank credit department, "the slow credit supply in January does not mean that the first quarter will be slow."

This can be seen from the credit scale formulated by the four major banks at the beginning of the year. The above-mentioned personages of the major banks also revealed that at present, the banks will continue the previous years

The quarterly credit supply rhythm of "3:3:2:2" means that the credit supply scale of the four major banks in the first quarter alone will be about 1.08 trillion yuan.

According to the information released from the recent annual work conference of the four major banks, all banks have emphasized the spirit of the financial work conference that "banks should serve the real economy". However, in the case of uncertain macro situation, the expansion trend of various industries has generally converged, and the "pro cyclical" behavior of commercial banks is also emerging.

When talking about credit in January, the above-mentioned state-owned bankers pointed out that the decline in the growth rate of international trade has greatly affected export enterprises. "Enterprises dare not expand blindly, and cooperative banks tend to be prudent."

In addition to state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, the credit supply of three policy banks, namely, China Development Bank, Export Import Bank and Agricultural Development Bank of China, is relatively stable.

A person close to CDB said that CDB's lending in January was relatively stable, 5% - 10% more than the same period last January, and its new loan scale in January last year was about 75 billion yuan.

However, the steady credit supply in January cannot hide the ambitious ambition of CDB in 2012.

For key infrastructure construction fields such as affordable housing construction, railway and water conservancy construction, CDB has continued its practice since 2011, that is, it plans to launch special loans for affordable housing, Ministry of Railways and water conservancy construction up to 100 billion, 100 billion and 50 billion respectively.
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