Textile Raw Materials Market: Cautious About Economy And Industry Cycle

Until the four quarter of 2011, textiles Raw material Market Go into a deteriorating "dead end". In addition to Zheng cotton futures contract rose slightly 0.85%, the rest of the whole line fell, about 60% down more than 10%. Among them, viscose staple fiber, Acrylic fibres Nylon ranked the top three, with the fourth quarter falling by 19.70%, 17.67% and 17.07% respectively. Led by viscose staple, the last wave of rebound in the three quarter of 2011 led to a sharp decline. The mainstream price dropped from 19500 yuan / ton to 20000 yuan / ton to 15500 yuan / ton to 16000 yuan / ton, and the decline was more intense than that when it first rose.

Careful analysis is not difficult to find that many varieties have such a bitter "frostbite", mainly due to the economic cycle. industry The complex interlacing of cycles.

Stimulated by the hot market of "ten years without" last year, polyester, viscose, spandex, nylon and other industries are facing wave after wave of expansion, and almost all chemical fiber enterprises have or are preparing for new projects. According to statistics, in 2011 1~11, the output of chemical fiber exceeded 30 million 740 thousand tons, an increase of 14.88% over the same period last year. However, this year, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States has deteriorated frequently. The problem of inflation in emerging economies is prominent. The continuous tightening of the central bank policy and the slowdown in domestic economy have led to sluggish demand for downstream factories, and export enterprises have been tortured by the main force of China's textile and garment industry.

Since last June, China's textiles clothing Export growth is decreasing month by month. According to the latest customs statistics, in December 2011, China exported 8 billion 301 million US dollars of textile yarn and fabrics, and exported garments and accessories 13 billion 442 million US dollars, an increase of 3.32% and 9.28% respectively compared with November, and the growth rate of textile and clothing exports dropped to single figures. In the case of "downstream demand is not up to volume and new capacity is ready to go", the market is in a predicament of relative surplus supply, and the profit level keeps dropping down to the cost line, and some varieties are even at a loss.

The domestic market is also not optimistic. The growth of domestic clothing and footwear category domestic sales has slowed down significantly after September. According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of statistics, CPI rose by 4.1% in December 2011, down 0.1 percentage points from November, and PPI rose by 1.7% compared with November, down 1 percentage points compared with November. Among them, the low CPI price index has brought some support to the market. However, the decline of PPI price index has significantly increased market anxiety, which indicates that demand is still weak, and the profitability of enterprises is still being strangled.

In 2011, we saw the ups and downs of the market and the mistakes made by too many empiricism. In 2012, a slowdown in demand or a slowdown in demand caused by the slowdown in the global economy will still suppress commodity markets for a period of time. The textile raw material market is still full of uncertainties. The capacity of those enterprises with too much capacity and a dim market will be reduced, and the number of enterprises will be increased.