Basic Warming &Nbsp; Cotton Prices Will Continue To Rally.

At present, the world Economics The situation has improved, and domestic cotton spot prices have steadily increased. yarn Prices have risen slightly, downstream. clothing Orders for enterprises have increased, and the fundamentals of Zheng cotton have been warm.

After the Spring Festival, under the influence of domestic policy easing and demand improvement, Zheng cotton walked out of the market of oscillating climb. At present, the world economic situation is good, domestic cotton spot prices have steadily risen, yarn prices have risen slightly, downstream garment enterprises. Order Increased, zhengmian fundamentals have been warm. I believe that the report of the US Department of agriculture is about to announce the new year. cotton The possibility of a reduction in supply is greater, and the resumption of purchase and storage and interest in capital market will pick up. The pace of the rise will not stop.

　 The economic situation is improving.

The recent improvement in the US employment situation and factory order index has given greater confidence to the market, and the anticipation of warmer consumer spending has intensified. China's economic growth rate is also slowing down. Under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, many industries in China are experiencing rapid growth, and consumer demand has rebounded. If CPI growth is maintained at 4.1% in January, the domestic inflation situation will continue to ease, and the time window for the deposit rate reduction will be opened again. In addition, the government has increased support for small and micro enterprises, providing new opportunities for the development of small and medium-sized textile enterprises.

　 Textile enterprises demand slightly improved

Before and after the Spring Festival, orders for downstream garment enterprises increased slightly, yarn demand was warmer, and cotton consumption of textile enterprises continued to improve. China's PMI in January was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, of which the export orders index of textile and garment industry is only 46.9%, and the new order index is higher than 60%. The above figures show that China's manufacturing industry is slowly recovering, and domestic demand for textiles has rebounded strongly, but international demand is still weak. In view of the weak demand in Europe and the United States, garment companies have to improve their marketing strategies: on the one hand, to increase the number of domestic sales and increase the proportion of domestic sales, which is expected to reach 80%; on the other hand, to expand the market share of Asia, Africa and Latin America while ensuring the volume of sales in Europe and the United States. The increase of orders in garment enterprises will drive yarn sales, thereby enhancing the output of textile enterprises and playing a good role in the repair of industrial chains.

　　 Tight supply or demand pattern or re emergence

Cotton prices fell unilaterally in 2011, which has an impact on the enthusiasm of farmers in the world. According to the ICAC report, the global cotton planting area will drop by 8% in 2012, and the total output will fall to 24 million 900 thousand tons, while consumption will be 24 million 310 thousand tons. The tight balance of the world's cotton will emerge again. From the domestic situation, the increase in labor costs and the decrease in cotton yield ratio have restricted farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton. According to the survey, in 2012, China's cotton planting area will drop by 9% to 72 million 160 thousand mu, with an estimated output of 6 million 500 thousand tons, plus 3 million tons of imported cotton, with a total supply of 9 million 500 thousand tons, while the total demand is estimated at 9 million 580 thousand tons. The supply is still tight and will continue to support cotton prices.

　　 Capital market interest rebounded significantly

After the Spring Festival, the state policy was relaxed and capital flow was abundant, and investors' interest in positions increased significantly. As of February 7th, the total position of Zheng cotton was 369 thousand hands, an increase of 35% compared with the beginning of the year, and the daily turnover of 367 thousand hands was also showing a trend of slow amplification. There are many factors in the near future, and the employment data in the United States are better. The Australian flood and the upcoming US Department of Agriculture Report on supply and demand have provided a good theme for the speculation of funds. Late cotton planting area and new year's storage and purchase will also be the focus of market attention.

From a technical point of view, Zheng cotton shift positions basically completed, CF1209 contracts become the main contract, the focus of the price moves upward, close to the brin channel, the average line is arranged in a long way, and the slope of the upward trend line gradually moves closer to 45 degrees, the entity of the K-line is obviously enlarged, and the warehouse volume is increasing continuously, and the medium and long-term gains are clear.

To sum up, the recent economic situation and the warmer demand in the stock market have led to a slight rise in futures. At the same time, the rebound in interest rates has also accelerated the pace of rising interest rates. The current price difference between Zheng and cotton has expanded. This week, the US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report will be released. The price is expected to oscillate slightly. The price will continue to rise, and the CF1209 target price will be 23400 yuan.