Discussion On Cotton Purchase And Storage Price In The New Year

It is mid February, and at the end of February, the authorities announced the new year's temporary.

1. The policy and effect analysis of temporary collection and storage in the current year

1, the background of the policy of collecting and storing policies: at the end of March 2011, the state formally promulgated the 2011 temporary collection and storage policy.

Cotton planting area is expected to increase at the end of last year when cotton prices hit a record high, but the increase is limited.

Global cotton supply exceeds demand and global economic performance shows signs of weakness, China

After the continuous dumping and storage, the stock of state reserves dropped to 500 thousand tons and there was a strong demand for replenishment.

2, the positive impact of the policy of collecting and storing:

(1) provide a basis for cotton prices to ensure smooth operation of the market.

As predicted by the parties before, 19800 yuan will become the bottom price of the market. Because of the cooperation with the unlimited purchase and storage conditions, the cotton price will stabilize and slightly callback when the storage capacity reaches about 1 million tons. When more than 2 million tons, the impact of the purchase and storage on the supply structure of the market will make the market price rise, and resources will start to flow to the market. At that time, the state has already mastered the high-quality resources of about 2 million 500 thousand tons, which has accumulated the strength for regulation and control, so that the price of the latter market will rise and bear pressure and avoid large fluctuations.

(2) forming stable anticipation in every link, ensuring basic income and seeking long-term development.

Looking back on the past year, in the sharp fluctuations of cotton prices, it is not that there are only a few links in the industrial chain that make a lot of profits. Most of the links are losing money. That is, the situation of "one year, one year and one year" is missing. It is impossible to achieve a win-win situation. At the same time, because of the lack of stable cotton price operation environment and future expectations, the market participants can not discuss the long term planning and development of the industrial chain.

This year cotton growers, cotton enterprises and textile enterprises under the control of purchasing and storage policy, although the income situation has not achieved a clear breakthrough, but the enterprise for the cotton price operation has formed a more stable expectations, the market cotton growers and cotton enterprises hoarding and reluctant to sell, textile enterprises hoarding raw material situation obviously reduced, thus effectively evading the artificial price fluctuation risk, so that the market main body to concentrate more on their own stable operation.

(3) enhance the ability of regulation and control and stabilize the medium and long term expectations through enriching reserves.

As of the first half of February this year, the total number of temporary storage and storage has been more than 250 million tons.

According to this year's cotton grading, and later stage

(4) protect the interests of cotton producers and ensure the basic supply of resources.

According to the price of 19800 yuan / ton, the average price of cottonseed is 1 yuan per kilogram this year, and the purchase price of 38% lint seed cotton is 4.2 yuan / Jin.

Such a price has a certain distance from the cotton farmers' psychological expectations in the early stage of the acquisition, but from the whole acquisition period, there is no significant fluctuation in cotton prices in the past years, which ensures the basic income of cotton farmers and forms a stable psychological expectation. This is also an important reason for the speed of the sale of cotton farmers before and after the Spring Festival.

A stable market environment and future expectations are of positive significance for stabilizing cotton planting and ensuring the basic supply of resources.

3, the policy of collection and storage needs to be improved.

(1) 19800 yuan / ton is determined according to the minimum purchase price of *10+800 cotton processing business in the current year. If cotton enterprises follow the daily purchasing reference price issued by relevant departments to guide the acquisition, the processing plant will only make an article on the processing cost of 800 yuan / ton, deduct the normal processing cost of the enterprise 500-600 yuan, and the freight pportation, dumping and other expenses to the library, and profit micro-blog, which is why many cotton enterprises do not strictly enforce the reference price, and the important reason for purchasing the price down, to a certain extent, has affected the play of the policy benefit agriculture.

(2) the purchase and storage price of 19800 yuan / ton was introduced at the end of March, when most cotton farmers had completed the procurement and preparation work for agricultural materials in the new year.

The important goal of this policy is to stabilize cotton production. The early introduction will be more conducive to cotton growers' planting intention in the new year.

Two, the new year's temporary purchase and storage of several versions of the price.

At present, the price of temporary storage in the new year is mainly two versions, one is 20400-20500 yuan / ton, one is 21200 yuan / ton.

The former estimates according to the grain and cotton price ratio at 1:10, that is, after the state raised the minimum grain purchase price in 2012, the minimum purchase price of wheat was adjusted to 102 yuan /50 kg, and the conversion ton price was 2040 yuan / ton, so the temporary storage price of ton cotton was 2040*10, that is, 20400-20500 yuan / ton.

The latter is 2040*10+800 processing cost, that is, 21200 yuan / ton.

The two are based on the relationship between grain and cotton price at 1:10. The main difference lies in whether calculating the processing fees of cotton enterprises, thus reflecting different emphasis.

The former takes more consideration of the affordability of textile enterprises. Due to the lack of space reserved for processing costs and profits for cotton enterprises, there may be a situation of cotton prices being bought down, which is more unfavorable to protect the interests of cotton farmers.

Three, the new year temporary purchase and storage price discussion.

1, changes in policy environment.

Analyzing the environment of the policy of purchasing and storage is beneficial to clarify the direction of policy formulation.

Affected by a number of unfavorable factors, such as the decline in cotton planting income last year, the rise in grain prices and the rise in wages for migrant workers, the trend of cotton planting area in China has basically been determined this year, with a preliminary forecast of around 10%.

The planting area of other major countries such as the United States is expected to decline, and global resources are expected to shift from oversupply to a basic balance between supply and demand.

Consumption, as the global economic growth continues to be dragged down by factors such as the European debt crisis, textile consumption demand has been greatly improved.

The price of agricultural products is expected to run at a high level under the influence of more abundant liquidity, disastrous weather and changes in supply and demand situation.

2, based on the above factors, the national interim purchase and storage price in the new year will be moderately increased on the basis of 19800 yuan / ton this year.

(1) 1:10 is a relatively high grain and cotton price ratio which is conducive to the stable cotton area.

According to the Central Document No. 1 of 2012, the government will continue to do a good job of grain production in 2012, do everything possible to stabilize the area of grain production, expand the production of scarce varieties, and strive to improve the yield and quality.

On this basis, we should support the construction of production bases in cotton production areas with superior production areas, such as optimizing layout, focusing on unit production and improving efficiency.

It is easy to see from the country's positioning of grain and cotton production that the formulation and adjustment of the cotton policy will still focus on the target of grain production, mainly from the advantageous areas and unit yields, and there will be no big breakthrough.

(2) consideration and location of the process.

According to the relevant data of the early February, the new system processing plant started to operate at 86%, and the processing and testing enterprises were 1695, an increase of 202 over the same period. The inspection volume was 4 million 650 thousand tons, an increase of 98% over the same period last year.

This shows that the overall operation of the 400 type processing plant is acceptable this year. The policy of purchasing and storing has obviously promoted the reform of the quality inspection system, and the competitiveness of the 200 type processing plant is insufficient and the pace of elimination has accelerated.

From the point of view of continuing the reform of quality inspection system, the departments concerned may still consider the cost of processing plants when formulating the new temporary storage price of the new year, which will also effectively prevent the processing plants from buying cotton seeds and cotton at a price to ensure that they are ensured.

(3) excessive pricing will damage the competitiveness of textile enterprises.

Different from the temporary storage price is the bottom price of cotton farmers and cotton enterprises. When the market price is lower than this price, the state will buy cotton. The price of storage is similar to the lowest cost for textile enterprises, and the purchasing price of new cotton will be running near or above the temporary storage price. Therefore, textile enterprises are quite sensitive to this price.

This year, 19800 yuan / ton basically became the bottom price of the global market. China imported the price into the international market through a large number of imports. The import of domestic cotton into the Chinese textile industry has become an important source of global resources. China has become the highland of the global cotton price. The decline in the competitiveness of the textile industry caused by the increase in domestic cotton textile costs has become an indisputable fact. Customs data show that in 2011, the number of garment exports in China decreased by 6% and the unit price increased by 26%.

From the national point of view, the establishment of Pro reserve price needs to find a balance between promoting the healthy development of the textile industry and maintaining the stability of cotton production, because the industry chain is actually "a grasshopper on a rope" and can not take account of it.

Excessive storage and purchase price will inevitably damage the market competitiveness of textile enterprises.

To sum up, the price of national temporary purchase and storage in the new year is still expected to take account of the interests of cotton growers, cotton enterprises and textile enterprises. The price will rise slightly on the basis of this year. Considering that the current reserve scale of our country can affect the late price operation of the market to a greater extent, the author expects the floating interval or around 1000 yuan / ton.