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Food Prices Continue To Go Down

2012/2/23 10:52:00 8

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Consumption Of Foodstuffs And Vegetable Prices

Green pepper, chili and cucumber fall first

Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that at present, the variety of vegetables is on the market.

market

The supply is increasing, and the price has gone down for 3 weeks, and 18 kinds of vegetables are wholesale

Price

0.7% lower than the previous week, 11% lower than the end of January, of which green pepper, pepper, cucumber fell the top.

The retail price of eggs fell 7 weeks in a row, down 1.8% from the previous week, and has fallen by 4.2% since the beginning of January.

In addition, meat prices were also lower, with pork, mutton and white chicken prices falling by 1.3%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, and pork prices fell more than 3 weeks.

And rice grain and oil prices are basically stable.

Soybean oil prices fell by 0.1%, while prices of rice, flour, rapeseed oil and peanut oil were unchanged from the previous week.

Wholesale prices of 8 kinds of aquatic products increased by 0.1%, of which 1.2%, 0.7% and 0.4% respectively.

"The low price of food in February is consistent with our previous forecast."

traffic

Bank

Chief economist Lian Ping told an interview with our reporter that in China's CPI structure, food accounts for about 1/3 of the total, while the price of non food is generally relatively small, because the proportion and fluctuation of food are relatively large, affecting CPI.

Lian Ping said the two major factors affecting food prices are pork and vegetables.

The rise in vegetable prices is unlikely to last for a long time, because the production cycle is relatively short.

relation between supply and demand

It is easy to adjust in the short term.

The pork production cycle is relatively long, cyclical characteristics are obvious, adjusting the relationship between supply and demand is relatively large.

Chen Yanli, a researcher at the Ministry of agriculture's Rural Economic Research Center, said pork prices showed a downward trend after the Spring Festival, mainly because of post holidays.

consumption

In addition, it is also affected by the outbreak of pig diseases in some locality and the selling of live pigs.

If the epidemic does not continue to develop, the price of pork will remain stable. If there is a serious epidemic, the price of pork will drop further in the near future.

Seasonal factors fade away

CPI

Fall back

For the reasons for the fall in food prices in February, Lian Ping believes that demand and supply will be weakened as a result of seasonal factors from the perspective of supply and demand.

In addition, food prices fluctuated in some places under the influence of heavy snow and other bad weather, but did not affect the overall situation.

From the national market, it should be said that the supply and demand relations have changed, and the food prices have come down. Some areas are more obvious, some areas are not very obvious, but in general, they will still fall back.

The continued decline in food prices also lowered the market's CPI growth in February.

In this regard, Lian Ping said that due to holiday factors in January, food demand has increased significantly, so CPI has seen a rise.

In addition, in February, the tail factor will also reduce CPI by 1 percentage points.

Lian Ping said that even if vegetable prices did not decline in February or remained at the level of January, CPI would have to go down.

In fact, the downward trend of CPI has been very evident since the fourth quarter of last year.

Lian Ping analysts believe that this is related to the measures taken by the state last year and the year before last.

In terms of monetary factors, because of the implementation of a series of effective regulation, including the 12 increase in the reserve ratio, the 9 increase in interest rates makes liquidity tighter and the interest rate level higher.

Followed by targeted measures for major foods, including pork and vegetables.

adopt

currency

A series of measures such as policy adjustment, supply and demand adjustment, circulation management and so on, and the effect of controlling CPI gradually appeared in the fourth quarter of last year.

Inflation is generally on a downward trend.

At present, China's inflation pressure is generally expected to decline significantly this year, but there are still many different opinions on how much CPI will rise.

Zhuang Jian, a senior economist at the Asian Development Bank, predicted that 4%, Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, predicted 2.8%, while Wang Zhihao, head of the Greater China Research Division of Standard Chartered Bank, predicted that the increase would be only 2%, the lowest value predicted by the current organization.

"We expect February to fall to less than 4%, maybe 3.5% or even lower."

Even in the prediction of CPI February, Lian Ping believes that the impact of the tail factor and the fall in food prices will inevitably lead to a fall of CPI in February and may not be too small.

For the overall trend of CPI this year, Lian Ping said that this year's overall level will be significantly lower than last year, CPI may be around 3%, and is still in a downward process.

Since January is a change in supply and demand caused by Holiday factors, there has been a rebound in the short term of 1 months, but this situation will not continue, nor is it a trend change, but a phased pause. In general, prices will tend to go down.