China: From The Debate Of The Real Economy To The Competition Of Stock Market

The external market has been full of spring recently, and the spring flowers of American stocks are even brightly spread everywhere. At 15:00 on February 28th at New York time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 13000 points, returning to the high level in 2007 and July before the financial crisis.

Japan's cherry blossoms also entered the flowering stage earlier. By the end of 29 days in Tokyo time, the Nikkei 225 index has gained 15% since 2012, and in February it rose by 10.46%, one of the best performances in the world's major stock indexes.

Even Germany, which often has "European debt worries", has gained more than 16% this year. Looking back at China equity market As of the closing date of 29, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 10.42% this year, and on the eve of the return of us shares to the eve of the financial crisis, the rebound of the Shanghai composite index is likely to be premature due to the weakening of real estate stocks.

　　 Economic debate

Compared with the stock market, no one can set China's economic performance in 2011. According to data from Nomura Securities of Japan investment bank, China contributed 40% of the world's economic growth in 2011.

But such rapid growth has triggered global worries about the risk of China's hard landing. The Financial Times reported that when the world's eyes were on China, China felt the slowdown in other parts of the world. At the same time, the Chinese government began to worry about their ability to maintain the rapid growth of China's economy in the future.

In Forbes's prediction of the world's five largest black swan event in 2012, "GDP China's growth rate is below 8.5%" ranks first. Some economists believe that China's recent cut in reserve requirements may be worrying about the slowdown. The debt crisis hanging over Europe is the main reason for this slowdown. Most of China's economic growth comes from its manufacturing sector, and when the manufacturing sector slows down, the economy will slow down.

Xie Guozhong, an independent economist, issued a pessimistic speech earlier. "If you think the situation in 2008 is already bad, then fasten your seat belt in 2012. The world may not be destroyed, but your wallet will shrink. " Xie Guozhong believes that 2012 will be the most unstable year.

Zhao Xiao, Professor of economics and management at University of Science and Technology Beijing, said that in 2012, China's economy will enter the lowest level in ten years. With the gradual decline of demographic dividend export dividends and property dividends as the three major driving force of China's economic growth, China's economy will enter "the twilight of growth". Over the years, China has invested a lot of resources in infrastructure construction. On the face of it, it has achieved "glorious". Gross domestic product "In fact, it has paid a heavy price. The defect of China's economic growth mode has become more and more obvious.

The most radical is the "doomsday doctor" Roubini, who expects China to have a "hard landing" after 2013. The reason is, "China is full of overinvestment in physical capital infrastructure and real estate." The beautiful and Spartan airports and high speed trains, highways leading to remote areas, thousands of tall buildings, empty new towns, and new aluminum smelters that were forced to shut down to avoid global price declines.

Deutsche Bank believes that the market has exaggerated China's risks in real estate banks and small and medium enterprises. The Ampang group, a think-tank in China, also pointed out that the "crisis theory" overstates the negative factors and ignores the positive factors and internal growth logic of China's economic development. Ampang believes that the Chinese economy has more room for maneuver in macroeconomic policy than the European and American economies. The tightness of policy will directly affect the economic growth next year. If the policy is tight, the growth rate may be around 8.5%. If the policy is slack, the growth rate may be close to 9%.

Some research institutes are relatively conservative in forecasting China's economic growth. Goldman Sachs believes that China's economic growth rate is estimated to be about 8%, which can be called the soft landing level.

Liu Junyu, a financial analyst at China Merchants Bank, described China's economy in 2012 as a "rainy day". It is expected that the economic growth rate will continue to slow down. The impact of domestic demand is much smaller than that of external demand. However, similar large-scale investment in 2009 is hard to restart, and the possibility of China's soft landing in the future will be greater. Inflation has been high and low this year, and the downward trend of inflation has basically been determined.

In fact, the economic data released in December have brought some warmth to A share investment. In March 1st, the National Bureau of statistics released the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry in February, which was 51%, rising for the three consecutive month, indicating that the procurement activities were becoming more active and the manufacturing economy continued to maintain steady growth.

Even a small rebound in January. CPI It is also widely regarded as the Spring Festival factor. However, the situation in Iran needs to be raised. High oil prices will create a major factor of instability in global prices.

　　 Stock market dispute

Every point in the stock market is constantly opposed by funds in the game, and the discussion on the future stock market has never stopped.

For this A share rally from 2132 points, Changjiang Securities believes that it has reached the "last chance". Changjiang Securities believes that the last factor restricting the market comes from the downside of the economy, which needs to be confirmed at the bottom of the economy to usher in a real recovery. Many factors such as the government's change and the possible downtrend of the potential economic growth will cause the bottom of the economy to be postponed, so the bottom of the market will come later.

CICC believes that the valuation level of the stock index has basically met the expectations of institutional investors. In the short term, the stock index will gradually shift to the stage difference from the earlier one. In the 1 quarter of the spring, the "seasonal rebound" reached a height of around 2500, according to CICC. And if the real estate policy and credit policy relax significantly, we can continue to push up A shares.

CITIC Securities also believes that the current market sentiment is optimistic, the first quarter of the first quarter of the two quarter of the economy is not expected to be effectively falsified, and policy and public opinion environment will continue to be warmer before the "two sessions" and continue to be optimistic about the upward trend of market turbulence.

GF Securities are relatively conservative. The reason for the biggest rise in the market is probably that there is not much reason to look at it. GF Securities pointed out that the rise of the market may not be synchronized with the fundamentals. From the perspective of stock market cycle, the current market is at the stage of "Hope" promoted by valuation promotion. At this stage, economic growth continues to decline and capacity utilization continues to decline, but it is expected to gradually improve. At present, good liquidity is the catalyst for improvement.

Li Daxiao, the director of the British Securities Institute at the beginning of this year, has seen more and more attention since the beginning of last year. Li Xiao Xiao listed eight reasons, including low valuation policy, changing the relationship between supply and demand and so on, to support the bull market. "6124 needs to be weak, 1664 needs courage, and 3000 needs persistence. 2132 is the diamond bottom, and it takes courage. " Li Daxiao pointed out.

Morgan's chief strategist, Lou Gang Stanley's Huaxin securities, is determined to see more. It said that if there is no major bad or abrupt change in policy, the 3000 points on the Shanghai Stock Index station will be very easy, and even 4000 points will not be difficult.

Lou Gang believes that the adjustment of real estate stocks is normal, because the current real estate industry policy is not clear, and Shanghai suddenly stopped residence permit for three years to purchase two suites policy. But Lou Gang pointed out that whether the market can stand firm depends mainly on the big financial sector, namely banks. In fact, the banking index has already bottomed out as early as last August, and the trend has been very steady in the past three months.

There are also many from the resolute to the empty. The typical representative is Hou Ning, the commander of the air force. (micro-blog). In an interview recently, Hou Ning said that the bull market has just started. The first target is from 2800 to 2900 points in Shanghai stock market. If the follow-up policy support can keep up with them, such as pension market entry and moderately relaxed monetary policy, A shares will also attack higher positions.