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Semir'S 2011 Casual Wear Sales Performance Is Slightly Lower Than Expected.

2012/3/5 15:35:00 21

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Sales slowed down in the fourth quarter.

The single quarter revenue growth in the four quarter of 2011 was 30.2%, 44.4%, 22.5% and 11.4% respectively. The growth rate of single quarter net profit was 27.8%, 31.1%, 22.9% and 10.6% respectively.

It can be seen that the warm weather in the fourth quarter has a more serious impact on the company.

In the two categories of casual wear and children's wear, the signs of slow down sales of casual wear are obvious, and the franchisees' inventory is also more. This is more obvious in the variety of women's clothing, but the sales growth of children's wear is still strong.

In the past 12 years, the company's product style has increased by more than 20%, and we insist on the strategy of stimulating sales growth with the rich category. Therefore, we expect that 12 years casual wear can gradually come out of the adjustment period.

Stores expanded less than expected in the year:

Due to rent

Rise

Too fast and high quality shops are hard to find. The number of new outlets is lower than expected. Due to the backlog of inventory and the intensified competition in the whole industry, the opening rate of franchised stores is slightly lower than expected.

In the 11 year, children's wear stores were slightly better, with an estimated 700 new additions a year, compared with less than 700 new shops for casual wear.

Fourth quarter gross margin is expected to decline.

2011Q3, the gross profit margin of the company is 36.44%.

Fourth quarter leisure wear industry overall promotion efforts are greater, the terminal has a lot of 5-6 fold discount, the company also adopts the way of increasing discount strength, it is expected to lower the gross profit margin of the whole year.

The cost rate has increased.

As the headquarters moved from Wenzhou to Shanghai in 2011, there was a large increase in personnel resettlement and other related expenses. At the same time, the related expenses of the company listing and store marketing expenses also increased, so we estimated that the annual cost rate increased by about 2.6% compared to 2010.

Earnings forecast: it is estimated that in the 12-13 years EPS is 2.17 yuan and 2.58 yuan respectively. The leading position of the company in the children's wear industry is still unshaken. After a few years of high growth, casual wear also needs a period of adjustment, but the long-term growth trend remains unchanged.

Therefore, we have long been optimistic about the company, giving "overweight" rating.

Semir

The company's performance in 2011 was slightly lower than expected:

In 2011, the company's revenue was 7 billion 760 million, an increase of 23.44% over the same period, with a net profit of 1 billion 206 million, an increase of 20.58% and a EPS of 1.8 yuan.

There are three main reasons for the growth of performance from high speed growth to stable growth.

First, the casual wear industry is facing an overall de stocking pressure in 2011.

The second is 11 years of warm winter weather, so that casual wear winter clothing sales are not smooth.

The third is the company.

Casual clothes

Because fashion is not enough, women dress is more obvious, which leads to the problem of marketable products.