Liu Xin Answers Four Major Problems In The Development Of China'S Textile Industry

"All data speak is more convincing." This is a common saying after many people argue the truth. And we believe that the truth of the data is most convincing. Although 2011 has passed, there are still several major problems perplexing the development of the industry. These problems also have certain characteristics in data, leaving behind their own appearance. Recently, Liu Xin, deputy director of the China Textile Industry Federation statistical center, set aside the remaining problems of the industry in 2011, hoping that she could analyze the data from the perspective of data, thus presenting a clearer thought and solution to the whole industry.

　　 Cotton price increase

2011 cotton The ups and downs of prices have left many businesses in the upstream and downstream sectors suffering losses. This year's gains still affect many people's hearts. In September last year, the state issued the policy of collecting and storing the cotton price, but this year, the policy of purchasing and storage will be ended in March this year. Can you predict the trend of subsequent cotton prices from the perspective of data analysis?

Liu Xin: we have once conducted an entrepreneur questionnaire, in 523 sample enterprises, 80% enterprises reflect the enterprise. profit Affected by the fluctuation of cotton prices, cotton prices have become the biggest problem affecting the development of the industry, and then the cost of labor and the financing difficulties of SMEs.

The overall trend of cotton prices in 2011 is just like the roller coaster's ups and downs. It rose to a high level in March, a sharp fall in August, and then in September, the state's policy of purchasing and storing up the bottom of domestic cotton prices, making people feel thrilling. However, although the policy of purchasing and storage has kept the bottom line of cotton prices in China, it can not support the bottom line of the international cotton price. This directly causes the expansion of cotton price gap at home and abroad. Look at the cotton price in December last year, the price of cotton at home and abroad can be reduced by more than 3000 yuan. This has caused the cost of domestic cotton to be used by local enterprises is higher, and the cotton price has been dragged behind in the international competition, and the competitive cost advantage has been weakened, and has stood at a disadvantage.

The purchase and storage of the state will end in March this year, but from January 2012, cotton prices in China will continue to go up. Therefore, after the end of the purchase and storage operation in March, how the cotton price will not be well judged, because the whole international demand is still weak, so our downstream consumption does not support the increase in cotton prices. But after the end of the purchase and storage, we have the price of the cotton backing, and the country stores cotton for more than one month, and the warehousing cost per month will also be counted in the cotton price, so if the country does not give the storage and storage department some Subsidies, storage and storage departments will store warehousing costs when they are put into storage. By then, I expect cotton prices to remain high.

Overall, I think cotton prices in 2012 are more risky and volatile. clothing When purchasing, enterprises should make some analysis of short market trend. If enterprises own cotton, it will be better, but it will digest some of them.

　　 Two ask labor shortage

Does the statistical center analyze the cost of labor? What do you think of the shortage of labor?

Liu Xin: the cost data for the whole year of 2011 have not yet come out, but in 2011, the total labor cost in the whole industry accounted for 8.96% of the main business cost of the whole industry, but because the industry chain of the whole industry is longer, so the labor cost of each link is different. The labor cost of the chemical fiber industry is bound to be low, only 3.56%, and the employment cost of the garment industry is bound to be high, reaching 13.54%. Enterprises are different in different industries. {page_break}

In my opinion, the problem of labor shortage in China has always been related to the structure of domestic talent supply and demand. The structure of personnel training and the structure of talent demand are different in China. Therefore, it is not easy to solve the problem of recruitment difficulties in the short term. It needs the reform of the national educational system to change the contradiction of the whole labor structure in our country. Now there are some problems in the age structure of the workers in the textile industry. In some traditional textile shops, there are looms in every household, but they are all in the operation of the elderly, and fewer and fewer young people are involved. If the talent structure is not adjusted, the recruitment problem will become more and more serious in China. Especially in the eastern coastal areas, many migrant workers want to work near their hometown, and do not want to go to the field to work hard, because this is not good for families, and there will be a series of problems such as support, marriage and marriage break up, so many workers prefer to work around their hometown or go to work. Most of the eastern coastal areas are for this reason.

The increase of labor cost will have a great impact on export sales. Because of the low labor cost in China, many foreign textile and garment enterprises came to China to look for manufacturing plants. But now, with the increasing labor force prices in China, these countries and enterprises are gradually turning their attention to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Burma, because of the labor of these countries. The price of force is lower than that of China. How do you view this problem?

Liu Xin: actually, it is not that our labor cost is high. International partners transfer to other countries for production and processing. I have been exposed to some textile and garment enterprises in Thailand for production and processing. The feedback from managers of these enterprises is that the working environment in Thailand, the proficiency of workers, the sense of being managed, and the sense of active labor are not as strong as those of Chinese workers. At present, after comparing China with other Southeast Asian countries, the comprehensive quality of our labor force is still very high. The Chinese are very diligent and harmonious. Although our labor cost is higher now, other aspects have advantages.

　　 Three questions about financing difficulties

In 2011, the financing difficulty of SMEs has also become an important problem affecting the development of the whole industry. This year's financing problem is still plaguing many enterprises. In this regard, does the statistical center have data to solve some problems for SMEs?

Liu Xin: in the enterprises we investigated, the problem of financing is the third biggest pressure last year. In the survey, 40% enterprises have been puzzling them, and at the same time, from their financial expenditure data, we can see that the growth of the cost of financial expenditure is obviously larger than that of the main business revenue and cost, so the cost pressure of enterprises in financial expenditure is also very large.

In the survey of the statistical center, nearly more than 500 enterprises have nearly 40% enterprises financing more than 10% higher than the benchmark interest rate of the bank, which leads to more repayment and greater pressure. Therefore, a conclusion can be drawn: in 2011, the financing cost of large enterprises is high and the financing of small enterprises is difficult. I have a feedback here, because in our industry, the cost of raw materials is high and profit margins are low. capital It is difficult to get money back. These hard money accounts for a part of the capital chain of enterprises. At the same time, enterprises must purchase large quantities of raw materials to support production, resulting in more intense capital chain. This creates a strange phenomenon of circulation. {page_break}

　 Four questions Exit And domestic sales

Last year, the export of textiles and garments did not sell well domestically. Many people still judged that domestic sales were better than exports this year. How do you judge this?

Liu Xin: in 2011, China's textile and clothing exports increased by about 20%. It seems to be good, but there is a big problem. The number of these export products is increasing, which can be said to be zero growth, but the price is rising.

This is mainly due to the rising price of cotton bedding and clothing. At the same time, the number of international demand is also decreasing. According to us customs data, imports and exports of textiles and clothing in the whole world decreased by 2% in the month of January 2011 -11. Although the amount has increased by about 8%, the number is still decreasing. Because the price of raw materials has spread to the whole world, cotton products all over the world should be rising in price. But in addition to the price of raw materials, our labor cost is also increasing, so the goods seem to be more expensive than other Southeast Asian countries. The cost pressure of China is even greater, and the proportion in the international market share of the US is decreasing.

The pressure of exports in 2012 is even greater, because the whole cost base in 2011 is the basis. In 2012, if we want to maintain an export increase of 20%, I think it is unlikely that the buyers of international orders will turn to other countries' imports according to their affordability to price, so our premium capability will also be restrained by some terminal consumption. I think the international market will be more severe in the first half of 2012, and demand will continue to be weak. The second half may be better than the first half.

Let's talk about domestic sales. market 。 Over the years, we have been saying that domestic sales are the support of our industry, but there are still problems in the domestic market. We can see that the price of clothing is very high, which is thousands of yuan down garments, but wages are not up to the price of clothing. Such a price increase will inhibit consumer demand for clothes. Therefore, the current situation in the domestic market is that prices are rising and sales are falling. And the state of the domestic market in 2012, I predict that it may remain stable, but e-commerce is becoming a trend. It may lead to a new climax of consumption.