India Banned The Export Of Cotton &Nbsp; Vulnerable Zhengmian "Changed Face".

suffer India banned exports of cotton News stimulus yesterday, domestic and foreign cotton futures rose straight in the afternoon, staged a wave from weak to strong "big change face" market. However, analysts believe that the increase in cotton production and downstream consumer downturn offset the good market, the cotton price rebound in the later stage will still be a heavy drag.

India prohibits export of cotton and boosted Market

According to Song Zhiwu, a northern futures analyst, yesterday, the trend of Zheng cotton was extremely dramatic: in the early morning, the US cotton fell sharply in the early morning, and all the way down, the main 1209 contract fell to 20610 yuan at the lowest level. After the news of India banned the export news at noon, the US disk began to change, the ICE electronic disk price jumped 4.33%, the cotton market opened 15 minutes in the afternoon, and the price rose by 450 yuan, causing the market to pour into the market. Finally, it closed at 22040 yuan / ton, up 280 yuan, and increased more than 4 million positions.

India General Administration of foreign trade (DGFT) on Monday announced the ban on the export of all varieties of cotton and will take effect immediately until further notice. India is the second largest cotton producing country in the world and the second largest exporter of cotton after the United States. Most of the cotton is sold to China, the world's largest cotton consumer.

According to relevant information, India has exported 8 million 500 thousand bales of cotton at the beginning of this year, and its export volume is higher than the 8 million 400 thousand package (170 kg / pack) expected by the government in January, of which 80% is sold to the Chinese market. At present, the domestic cotton price in India is hovering at 34000-35000 rupees per 356 kilograms. Cotton prices hit a record high of 61700 rupees per 356 kg in March 2011.

In the spot market, China's cotton price index continued to decline slightly yesterday, of which 328 level reported 19599 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 2 yuan. In the substitute market, PET staple fiber was quoted at 11680 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber reported 16850 yuan / ton.

Raise the cost of collecting and storing prices.

Haitong Futures Investment Advisory Department Tao Jinfeng pointed out that the government's economic growth target this year will be reduced to 7.5%, cotton production will increase in advance, and the downstream consumption of cotton will be sluggish, which will offset some of the cotton purchase and storage price rise and India's ban on cotton exports.

He further analyzed that although the purchase and storage of the purchase and storage price increased by 600 yuan / ton, in addition, the scope of purchase and storage will be moderately expanded, and the standard of storage and purchase should be relaxed. First, the increase in the price of storage and purchase may lead to high and low cotton prices, which is unfavorable for the export of textile enterprises; two, because cotton planting income is still relatively low compared with other grain varieties, and the benefits to cotton growers are limited. Three, raising the price of storage and raising may lead to the increase of cotton planting area, partly offset its positive effects. The Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences recently released an investigation report that the cotton planting area may be reduced by 6.1% in 2012, and it will be reduced from 81 million 240 thousand mu to 76 million 284 thousand mu in 2011. And suggest that Temporary purchase and storage price Up 5%. Four is the cotton purchase and storage price increase needs the downstream consumer market acceptance and cooperation, and now the downstream consumption of cotton is low, the export situation is not optimistic. According to the China Cotton Association, as of the end of January, the total turnover of the total commodity cotton turnover in China was about 1 million 229 thousand tons, an increase of 117 thousand tons compared with December, representing a decrease of 360 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Last week, the new deal came out in 2012, stipulates that the new cotton purchase and storage price in 2012 is 20400 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton before, and this increase basically fell into the industry's expectation. Last September 8th, when the temporary storage and purchase plan was launched, cotton prices slowed down from a decline to a steady recovery, and began to pick up in December. By the end of February, the state had collected nearly 2 million 700 thousand tons of cotton, accounting for nearly 40% of its output.