Clothing Industry: Consumers' Collective "Betrayal" Before High Prices

　 " Price increase "Whitewash" domestic sales data

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2011 1~12 yuan was 18 trillion and 122 billion 580 million yuan, an increase of 17.1% in nominal terms (11.3% in real terms after deducting price factors), which was 0.1 percentage points faster than that in the three quarter. Among them, the retail sales of Enterprises above Designated Size (unit) amounted to 84609 billion yuan, an increase of 22.9% over the previous year, and the retail sales of clothing commodities increased by 795 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year, accounting for 9.4% of the total retail sales of Enterprises above designated size. The growth of clothing consumption has been better than the overall consumption growth of consumer goods since March 2009. In 2011, the total retail sales of clothing commodities in China exceeded 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan.

　　 Ministry of Commerce The sales data of 3000 retail enterprises that focus on monitoring show that clothing consumption has increased steadily in November. In November 2011, sales of clothing products increased by 14.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2 percentage points higher than that in October. Of them, clothing sales increased by 15.4% over the same period last year, 2.8 percentage points higher than that in October, and domestic demand for clothing was relatively stable.

According to the China Business Information Center, sales volume, quantity and average price of major large-scale retail business clothing increased by 22.96% in the 1~10 months of 2011 compared with the same period last year.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~11, the clothing retail price index rose to 101.7, and the clothing consumer price index rose to 102. In November, the clothing consumer prices in November increased by 3.5%. Garment factory prices also hit a record high. In 1~11, clothing manufacturers' factory prices rose by 4.3% over the same period last year, 5.3 percentage points higher than the end of 2010. In November, the producer prices of clothing producers increased by 3.8% in the same month. According to the China Business Information Center, the average price of clothing sales in major retail businesses in China increased by 17.07% over the same period in 1~10.

　　 6 industry chain two way chain reaction highlights

The increase in price and sales volume increased considerably.

"The price of Chinese clothing is generally higher than that of similar European and American clothing prices", which was criticized in 2011, not just international. brand In China, the price is high and the goods are old. Even the price of many Chinese brands is also shocking. This may be something that the international clothing industry does not understand very well. First, how dare the Chinese clothing brand use "price" arbitrarily? This market reaction activity is very high, and once it loses, it is difficult to pick up the strategic factors of the end. Secondly, how can the Chinese clothing market accept such amazing speed of increase in price and how can consumers be indifferent to such a high price?

From the price and quantity of clothing sold by the 3000 key retail enterprises in the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, we can see a dramatic scene: before 2011, the price increase and sales volume increase curve were parallel, and after 2011, especially after June, they deviated like the bell mouth, and sales growth increased in 2011. In the face of high prices, consumers finally choose collective betrayal.

Of course, it can not be all attributed to the "price increase", late winter and early spring festival, greatly reducing the value of clothing sales throughout the year, the highlight of "winter clothing" performance time. Winter clothing is mostly dependent on the weather. Sales time and climate change are almost decisive for winter sales. For example, in the severe winter of 2008, many outdated stocks that many brands had not been asked for years were swept away.

　　 Slow growth of new projects shows weak investment

Weak domestic demand is necessarily corresponding to weak supply, but interaction and mutual lag effect. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~12, China's Enterprises above Designated Size completed 25 billion 420 million garment production, an increase of 8.14% over the same period last year, an increase of 8.76 percentage points from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, industry investment is tightening and the number of new construction projects has slowed down. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~12, the apparel industry above Designated Size Enterprises actually completed investment of 207 billion 280 million yuan, an increase of 41.63% over the same period last year, an increase of 8.67 percentage points over the end of 2010, and the number of construction projects, new projects and completed projects increased by 10.58%, 7.05% and 22.85% respectively. Although the increase in investment in clothing industry is very eye-catching in all industries, the initial growth of new projects shows that the investment in clothing industry is not too high.

　 PMI lag effect indicates that the market outlook is uncertain.

According to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the national purchasing managers index PMI was 50.5 in January 2012. Among them, the textile and garment industry PMI ring fell by 6.4% and 4.3% respectively. The clothing industry PMI remained at 53.5 highs, while the textile industry PMI dropped to 36.7, down 7.1% from the same period last year, approaching the historical low of 28.7 of the financial crisis in 2009. If this group of data shows that the clothing industry is bright at the moment, so long as the textile industry "purchasing managers" is the downstream garment industry, it is probably very difficult to be optimistic.

　 7 "inventory" eventually became a financial pressure.

In 2011, a major hidden danger caused by "high before and after low" is "inventory". The inventory problem is not significant at present because these stocks are in the downstream of the clothing industry in the form of channel inventory, which is in the commercial field, that is, dealers. But channel is the lifeblood of a brand enterprise, and what can not be sold is the burden of cash. In 2012, domestic enterprises are likely to face the pressure of two pressures. One is the pressure from the upstream textile industry in the supply chain. On the other hand, it comes from the reduction of orders, the increase in receivables, the demand for recycling or reduction of inventories in the downstream distribution industry, and the huge inventory and financial pressure required by brand companies to invest in channel maintenance. {page_break}

Inventory of textile and apparel industry in recent years

In 2011, there were obvious signs of adjustment in the domestic market. Exports to domestic sales, wholesale to retail, and low end to high end led to an increase in the number of competitors. And competition is no longer between brand and brand. The rapid expansion of e-commerce has even resulted in competition among different business models. In addition, the accelerated entry of the two or three tier international brands and the acceleration of the sinking of the international popular brand channels will inevitably exacerbate the market competition.

8, "intensive" development path is clear.

The change of supply and demand and the balance between supply and demand are ultimately reflected in the industry performance. In 2011, the National Bureau of statistics raised the scope of statistics above the scale from 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan, which can be said to be an important factor in keeping the above scale data optimistic. As an industry with a high degree of marketization and a large scale of competition, Matthew effect has long been shown in the clothing industry, and high-quality industrial resources have already gathered to the dominant enterprises in accordance with the principle of "maximizing efficiency and minimizing risks". There are about 10 garment enterprises in China, of which 1 are over scale enterprises.

　　 Performance of Enterprises above Designated Size in garment industry in 2011

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011, the total industrial output value, main business income and total profit of garment enterprises in China reached a high growth rate of 27.19%, 27.33% and 32.92% respectively. The average gross profit margin and profit rate of the industry reached 16.30% and 6.17% respectively, which increased 2.53% and 4.39% respectively compared with the same period in 2010. The total assets contribution rate and net assets yield rate increased 5.19% and 6.55% respectively over the same period in 2010, while the three fee ratio was 8.01%, which was reduced by 5.19% compared with the same period last year.

According to statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1~11, the number of employees above designated size increased by 5.38% compared with the same period last year, and labor productivity increased by 20.8%.

Although the enterprises above Designated Size have achieved good economic performance indicators, the downward pressure can not be ignored. The decline in the growth of total industrial output will inevitably affect the decline of other indicators. Especially noteworthy is that both the main business revenue growth and profit growth continued to fall. Although the profit growth is still higher than the main business revenue growth, the downward trend of profit growth is even more fierce. In 2012, most enterprises unanimously lowered the business marketing growth plan. "Maintaining stability" has become the main keynote of the garment industry in the first half of 2012.

The signs of "Galaxy development" in China's clothing industry are more obvious. Many small and medium-sized enterprises are surrounded by different levels or different sub sites around a large industrial group, or loose or tightly become part of a large industrial group or part of a business. In 2012, new development models such as industrial intensification, capitalization and consortium development will be more obvious and will accelerate the industry's shuffling.