2012 What About Textile And Clothing? (1)
In 2011, the opening year of 12th Five-Year, the textile industry experienced many challenges in its economic operation. It is depressed by international demand, domestic raw material prices and monetary policy tightening.
The changing environment of the economy
2011 is the year of the opening of 12th Five-Year. On the whole, the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the textile industry continue to advance. The growth of all indicators is basically normal and the running situation is generally stable. However, the operation of the industry is facing a series of factors, such as the obvious increase of domestic risks, the rise and fall of raw material prices, the tightening of financing environment, the increase of domestic factor and labor cost, and the slow growth of external demand.
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According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2011 1-11, 16 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 49526 billion yuan in total industrial output value, an increase of 27.5% over the same period last year, 30 million 740 thousand tons of chemical fiber production, an increase of 14.9%, a 26 million 320 thousand ton of yarn production, an increase of 12.5%, and a 56 billion 800 million increase of cloth production, an increase of 13.3.
According to customs data, in the 1-11 months of 2011, the total export volume of textile garments was 231 billion 800 million US dollars, up 2.1% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 6 percentage points lower than that at the end of April. It is estimated that by the optimization of the export structure and the increase of production costs, the textile price in 2011 increased by 20.4% and the total export volume increased by 98% in 1-11 months. Excluding price factors, the number of textile and garment exports increased by 0.5% in the 1-11 months, and the number of garment exports increased by 0.1%. Some export orders were transferred to the surrounding low-cost countries, and the demand for international market terminals was not optimistic.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, over 1-11 counties nationwide
In 2011 1-11, the total fixed investment of the textile industry over 5 million yuan was 610 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 34.7% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points over the 1-3 month period, the 1.8% increase in the new construction project, the slowdown in investment in the new construction project, the tight financing environment of the enterprises, and the lack of funds, which also reflected the decline in market confidence and willingness to invest. In terms of the regional distribution of new investment, the investment in the central and western regions increased fairly rapidly, which accounted for a further increase. In the 1-11 month, the investment in fixed assets in the central and western enterprises increased by 55.7% and 51.8% respectively, significantly higher than the 23% growth rate in the eastern region. The proportion of new investment in central and Western China accounted for 30.6% and 8.1% respectively, 4.1 and 0.9 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the pace of textile industry transferring to the central and western regions continued to accelerate. Show that the investment growth slowed down and the regional layout continued to optimize.
Although the textile and garment industry is facing many pressures in 2011, structural adjustment and industrial upgrading continue to push forward, and the quality of operation has been steadily raised, which has increased by 21.1% compared with the same period last year. The production efficiency of the industry has increased steadily, and the proportion of the three expenses is 5.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, the tightening of money resulted in a substantial increase in interest expense. However, the proportion of financial expenses accounted for three was basically the same as that of the previous year, indicating that the management level continued to improve, and the quality and efficiency of asset management were basically good.
The industry overall profits, but the growth rate of profits fell faster. The quality of operation is improved, and domestic demand expands to bring profit to the textile industry and achieve sustained profitability. In 2011 1-11, textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 215 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 29% over the same period last year, with a profit margin of 5%, unchanged from the same period last year. However, due to the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, the increase in the cost of production and agricultural resources, the industry's profit growth continued to shrink. The growth rate in 1-11 months was 24.6 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. In October, the profit deflation was only 71.8%, which was 40 percentage points lower than the beginning of the year. According to the key industry cluster survey data of the China Federation of textile industry 1-11 months, small business profits increased by 11.4%, the growth rate was less than 40% of the above scale enterprises, and the export processing small business efficiency decline was more prominent. Among the garment industrial clusters whose proportion of 9 exports was greater than 20%, the total profits of Enterprises above designated size increased by only 4.7%.
Complex external economic environment
Wang Tiankai, President of the China Federation of textile industry, pointed out that the environment facing the textile industry in 2012 is still very complex. From the perspective of the environment, the development of the industry will be tightened. On the one hand, the European debt crisis continues and the world economic recovery is weak, which will have a significant negative impact on consumption. Especially the developed countries such as the United States and Europe, which are the main consumers of the international market, have a weak economic recovery, and the unemployment rate remains high. The demand for the international market is expected to remain weak. Export enterprises are facing insufficient demand, and competition pressures and trade frictions will become more prominent. On the other hand, the difficulty of consumption growth is increasing, and the demand for international investment has slowed down. The pressure of China's economic growth in 2012 is expected to increase further. With the fluctuation of raw material prices, the increase of labor force and other factors and the fact that the financing environment of SMEs has not yet reached substantial improvement, textile industry will face greater difficulties as a competitive industry.
He said: "despite this, the basic attributes of textile and clothing as necessities of life also determine that domestic and international market demand will not shrink substantially. Especially, there is no fundamental change in the fundamentals of our domestic demand market. The income growth of urban and rural residents will remain at a slower pace than economic growth. Policies and measures to improve people's livelihood and expand domestic demand will also continue to be implemented. With the gradual easing of inflation pressure, the domestic demand for textile and clothing has been steadily expanded and will continue to be the primary support for the development of the textile industry. At the same time, we should see that although the international market competition is more intense, the mature and complete industrial system of our textile industry has formed an integrated competitive advantage, and the quality and market share still have obvious international competitive advantages.
Wang Tiankai believes that tightening external environment has formed a market forced mechanism, bringing a new round of shuffling to promote industrial upgrading and adjustment. Therefore, it is expected that the production and marketing efficiency of China's textile industry will continue to increase in 2012, and the main operational indicators of Enterprises above designated size are expected to maintain a two digit growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down compared with the previous year. Downward trend, the terminal market will have less space to increase the price of consumer goods, and it is expected that the decline in the export and profit growth rate of the industry will be more obvious. The difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises, especially the processing SMEs, will be more prominent. According to the above judgment on the overall economic situation of the textile industry, we should conscientiously carry out the central economic work conference in 2012, the spirit of the overall keynote of steady progress, expand domestic demand as the strategic basis, and make full use of the objective and sober understanding of the grim situation facing the new year and all kinds of difficult problems in order to further enhance our confidence in the development of the industry in the light of the Central Committee's efforts to speed up economic restructuring and strengthen the work of independent and coordinated development. Because of the economy
Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of statistics, analyzed the current state of affairs at the macro level. Pan Jiancheng pointed out: "just released the fourth quarter business boom survey results, we can see that the business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index both fall, how to understand both down. I think there are several points: first, the index is falling, but we often pay attention to the relative number of economic growth, but we do not pay attention to the absolute number. Secondly, entrepreneurs' confidence is green, reflecting the fact that the confidence of entrepreneurs in the current society has fallen considerably. When the whole economy is faced with some difficulties, confidence often has an enlarged effect. Worrying about economic growth is very important for employment. Today, there is not a large number of unemployment and migrant workers returning home. The potential growth rate of the economy means growth under full employment. Now the economic growth rate is just a regression to the potential growth rate. It is a rational regression and is the result of macroeconomic regulation and control. {page_break}
Pan Jiancheng also talked about the highly prosperous IT industry, which has enjoyed a boom of 65% in three quarters. It illustrates the role of national subjective policies in promoting strategic emerging industries and promoting the generation of information technology. Second, objectively speaking, when domestic enterprises are in difficulty, they also take the initiative to innovate, break through and upgrade their structures. It is very important to improve the management level and technology level of enterprises through information technology, and create huge demand for information and IT industry.
He also said that wholesale and retail trade, social services, accommodation and catering industry were relatively stable, relatively high, significantly higher than that of industry. It shows that these industries are closely related to consumption, consumption is growing steadily, and even a breakthrough is brewing. This is also the reason why the textile and garment industry still maintains a relatively good situation in the face of falling external demand. Consumption is a function of income, and income will reach a certain level, which is bound to increase the driving force of consumption.
Speaking of exports, Pan Jiancheng said: "the textile industry is very dependent on exports. This dependence relies on the analysis of the international situation. The key point is to see the US and Europe. Today, there are different situations in the US and Europe. Not all the same. The US economy has been recovering moderately recently. We can see that consumer confidence is on the rise and the unemployment rate is decreasing recently. Of course, I can not say that it is sustainable, but at least it shows that the US economy has not gone further. This provided a relatively good condition for our exports in 2012, but the problem is that the European debt crisis and a series of tightening policies needed to deal with the European debt crisis will have an impact. Then, the European debt crisis is not a short-term solution. This is a problem. "
Zhang Yansheng, the former director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said about the impact of the European debt crisis on textile and clothing. "The economy has internal rates. If the confidence of global investors can reach an agreement quickly within the internal political contest, then the current plight of Europe can be bottomed out, so that European bond debt will not be out of control." Since the European economy is, after all, the richest economy in the world, the Europeans are fully capable of saving themselves. If Europeans can achieve consistency in the 27 countries in politics, and with international aid and the same boat, the crisis will not actually deteriorate as people think. But if we fail to do so, it will be a disaster for the world and for Europe.
For textile and garment enterprises, Zhang Yansheng believes that due to the European debt crisis, there are still problems in global investor confidence, so the euro is depreciating.
Wang Wei, deputy director of the Institute of market economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said: "after 30 years of rapid growth, our current economic downturn has the cause of our economic cycle adjustment, and also has external environmental impacts. More importantly, after 30 years of rapid growth, Chinese economy will not develop in the past with the rapid growth trend. In fact, from the experience of various countries in the world, we can see such a clear fact that according to the international dollar size in 1990, the speed of economic growth of all countries will change at the stage of GDP per capita of 8 thousand and 10 thousand dollars. Japan, Korea, Germany and the United States all have such changes. China is at such a stage of change. The change of the current economic operation and its speed may also indicate that we are at such a stage. What is more important is that we can bring our potential growth rate into play in the future growth, and at the same time, make our market economy system more perfect. Redemption of enterprises
Since the environment is not strong enough, 2012 is bound to be a complicated year. Then the enterprises only have to push forward, fear the storm, and rely on their own efforts to realize their self salvation. It is called "heaven helps those who help themselves".
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