Economic Growth Slowed Down &Nbsp; Bank Profit Growth Or Moderate Decline.

Zeng Gang, director of the banking Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Rao Ming, a securities banking analyst at XinDa, said that the growth rate of commercial banks' performance will slow down this year. It is estimated that the net profit growth rate of 16 listed banks will be around 26%.

For the bank's refinancing, which is highly concerned about the market, Rao Ming Jing estimates that the refinancing scale of commercial banks will be around 200 billion yuan this year, of which 90 billion yuan has been disclosed and the market has been digested.

This year's growth or slowing down

Zeng Gang: from the data, banks have strong profitability.

The interest rate of the banking sector is stable, and the risk cost remains at the lowest level in the world, but the future performance is facing great uncertainty.

First of all, unlike ordinary enterprises, the risk exposure of banks is obviously lagging behind.

Bank financial reports are compiled according to general accounting standards for business enterprises. Bank profits are unadjusted data. This shows that the current profits of banks do not take into account future risk factors.

Delayed exposure of risk may be a drag on bank profitability.

Secondly, the slow growth of real economy will make bank profits return to normal from high growth rate.

At present, the growth rate of bank loans has slowed obviously. Even if the growth of the profit margin and the middle business income remain stable, the profit growth will also slow down.

Rao Ming: it is estimated that the net profit growth rate of the 16 listed banks will be around 26%.

The credit scale will expand moderately this year, and the new loan is expected to be 8 trillion to 8 trillion and 600 billion yuan this year.

The net interest rate will rise first and then decrease, but the overall interest rate will remain stable.

The average rate of bad rate will be between 0.9% and 1%.

Taking all these factors into account, the net profit of listed banks will go down gently this year.

The central bank, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the NDRC are currently clearing up the fees of the banking business. Will this affect the middle business income of banks?

Zeng Gang: Although there are several thousand charges in the banking industry, the number of residents is not large, and the contribution to the bank income will not be great, so cleaning charges will have little impact on bank profits.

Under the pressure of capital adequacy ratio, banks will become the general trend of banking business pformation and income structure adjustment.

Rao Ming: this will have a certain impact on the intermediary business of banks, but the estimated impact is limited.

Although the contribution of intermediate business income to bank performance has increased year by year, its proportion of operating income is not large, at most 20%, with only a few percent less.

According to the CBRC statistics, the balance and ratio of non-performing loans of financial institutions increased in the fourth quarter of last year. Does this mean that the bad loans of commercial banks have entered the rising cycle?

Zeng Gang: whether non-performing loans should enter the rising cycle needs continuous observation.

At present, the data of bad loans in China's banking sector are at a very low level all over the world.

Last year, the CBRC suggested that the tolerance of non-performing loans is 2%. From the current 1% of the banking sector's non-performing loan ratio, there is still room for improvement.

However, if the future non-performing loans of banks are jumping up sharply, they may have a direct impact on profits.

Rao Ming: the bank itself is a risk management industry, and a slight increase in non-performing loans is a normal phenomenon.

Overall, the absolute amount of non-performing loans will increase, but the bad rate will tend to be stable.

The future risk of loans is mainly concentrated on platform loans, real estate loans, financial services and shadow banking.

What is the impact of the new Chinese version of the Basel agreement III on the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks?

Zeng Gang: first of all, one of the lessons of the financial crisis is to strengthen the supervision of banks. However, the by-product of strengthening supervision is the restriction on commercial banks' credit behavior.

In the current macroeconomic environment, the global economy is weak, and countries need economic stimulus to get out of the quagmire of recession.

Strengthening banking supervision will weaken the stimulating effect of banks on economic growth.

Second, in accordance with previous policy arrangements, the implementation process of Pakistan III in China is faster than expected. However, the deterioration of the European financial environment has made China's macro-economy face greater uncertainty.

At this point, if we implement the BA III according to the original idea, we may have a negative impact on China's economy.

Because of the existence of capital regulatory framework, China's banking industry will face long-term capital constraints.

The impact of future capital regulation on the banking industry will be more and more obvious. The rights issue, the private placement and the introduction of strategic investors are all adjustments made by the banks under capital constraints.

Rao Ming: at present, at the downward stage of economic growth, the Chinese version of Pakistan III has been suspended for some time.

As long as the core capital adequacy ratio meets the requirements of issuing bonds, commercial banks generally prefer to issue bond financing, because debt financing does not dilute the rights of shareholders.

What is the pressure on commercial banks to refinance this year?

Rao Ming: according to our calculations, this year