Dacheng Fund: Inflation Data Reflect Moderate Economic Recovery

2012/3/9 16:02:00 12

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The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 9 day that CPI rose by 3.2% in February, a 20 month low, while PPI remained unchanged.

In this regard, the Dacheng Fund said that excluding the Spring Festival factors on the distortion of the role of CPI, from the chain data, inflation is still rising slightly, the first half of this year is expected to continue to ease inflationary pressure, but with the sustained slow economic recovery.

inflation

Pressure will pick up slightly in the second half of the year, but CPI is still expected to be around 3% in the whole year.

Dacheng Fund said, usually the price chain ratio.

data

It can reflect the real situation of the economy better, and we should analyze the inflation data in January and February in order to eliminate the influence of Spring Festival factors on prices.

In January and February, the CPI average rose by 2.9%, compared with 1.9% in December last year, and 0.7% in January and February, compared with 2.3% in last year's December PPI in January, reflecting a slight increase in inflation.

On the face of it, the CPI's year-on-year increase has hit a 20 month low, but it is mainly affected by the Spring Festival. So the market impact of CPI's year-on-year data is limited, and the impact on macroeconomic policy will also be limited.

Macroscopic

Economic policies will continue to be steady and steady.

Based on the judgment that inflation will rise moderately in the second half of this year, the economy will slowly recover and macroeconomic policy is stable, we should consider that the cyclical industry deserves attention.