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Textile And Apparel Growth Is Expected To Rebound In March

2012/3/9 16:02:00 6

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Market review:

This month

Textile and clothing

Textile manufacturing and clothing home textiles rose by 11.68%, 13.01% and 10.61% respectively, compared with other industries in the upper and middle reaches.

From the valuation point of view, at present, the static PE of the textile and garment sector is 20.37 times, and the premium rate is 13.81 times that of all A shares, 1.48 times that of PE, which is higher than the historical average premium rate of 1.38 times since 2005.

By the end of the reporting period, we gave the "buy" rating of nine listed companies, including Hinur, Busen, and Busen, and five listed companies in the group. Apart from Busen shares, the rest of the shares have achieved positive relative returns to the textile and garment sector. The performance of the nine farmers and Hinur has been excellent. Since the "buy" rating was given, the cumulative gains of the two have been 21.96% and 8.22% respectively, and they have obtained a clear absolute return.

Industry tracking: in 1 and 2012, cotton purchase and storage price was 20400 yuan per ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton compared with last year.

On the eve of the spring sowing of cotton, the announcement of the purchase and storage plan and the raising of the storage price will help protect cotton farmers' enthusiasm and stabilize the cotton production this year.

From a fundamental point of view, the current price gap still exists at home and abroad, while the lower cotton textile start up rate is still low, and the market demand is lacking. Therefore, we believe that although the increase in the purchase and storage price may continue to drive domestic cotton prices to rise slightly, the trend is unlikely to increase.

2, 2012 January

Apparel Retailing

The volume growth slowed down and retail sales grew negatively.

According to the China Business Information Center, in 2012 January, the number of retail sales of major retail enterprises increased by 12.3% over the same period last year, 7.52 percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2011, and the retail sales of clothing decreased by 0.18% compared to the same period last year.

Among them, the sale of high-end shopping malls is particularly evident.

Of the ten top retail enterprises in statistics, 6 clothing sales were negative year-on-year, while ten retail sales dropped 2.66% year-on-year.

From the point of view of urban distribution, sales growth of first tier cities is relatively low, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.78%, which is nearly 10 percentage points lower than the overall growth rate of 12.3%.

We believe that the slowdown in garment retail growth in January is related to the factors leading to the Spring Festival. It is expected that the growth rate will rebound in March.

Key companies tracking: 1, the 2011 performance report of the group: the company achieved operating income of 836 million yuan, an increase of 49.56% over the same period, and the net profit of the shareholders belonging to the listed company was 208 million yuan, an increase of 69% over the same period last year.

Accordingly, the company realized revenue of 216 million yuan in the four quarter, an increase of 27.59% over the same period last year, achieving a net profit of 61 million 96 thousand yuan to the parent company, an increase of 49.83% over the same period last year.

The company's fourth quarter income is slightly lower than expected, but its operating efficiency is high, and its net profit still maintains a higher growth rate. It maintains the judgement of the company's "multi brand operation experience and strong channel expansion capability to provide a guarantee for its relatively clear growth" and maintains the "buy" rating.

Dream home textiles

2011 performance Bulletin: the company achieved operating income of 1 billion 252 million yuan, an increase of 46.40% over the same period, and the net profit of shareholders attributable to listed companies was 114 million yuan, an increase of 24.74% over the previous year, a diluted EPS of 0.76 yuan, a weighted average return on assets of 10.82%, and a net asset per share attributable to shareholders of listed companies to 7.22 yuan.

Accordingly, the company realized revenue of 441 million yuan in the four quarter, an increase of 22.39% over the same period last year, achieving a net profit of 49 million 860 thousand and 300 yuan to the parent company, an increase of 6.91% over the same period last year.

The company's fourth quarter income has obviously slowed down, and it may be affected by aggressive expansion strategy, resulting in high cost. Net profit growth is also significantly lower than expected. We lowered the performance forecast, adjusted 2012-2013 years EPS to 1.18 and 1.49 yuan, and investment rating from "buy" to "overweight".

It is suggested that the operational risks associated with company expansion, especially the management of distributors, should be emphasized later.

Investment suggestion: at present, A share brand enterprises are facing pformation problems.

Referring to the growth path of foreign and domestic brands, when the number of stores is over 4000, the expansion of single brand is facing the problem of growth and deceleration.

At present, some A share Brand Company have approached or already entered this stage of development. The industry should pay attention to the change of growth quality and growth mode in the next 3 years.

Therefore, we believe that the industry's stock selection ideas are mainly based on differentiated competition, and we should pursue the certainty of growth more.

We recommend the sub sectors with larger market space and listed companies with unique management mode.

In the short term, according to the 2011 performance Bulletin of the brand clothing enterprises, it is expected that the 2011 search for special, Pathfinder, newsbird, and the state of costumes will be gratifying.