Sheyang: Cotton Sales And Trend Analysis Of Cotton Preparation

First, cotton field preparation.

This year, the whole county

1. The cotton planting area has been greatly reduced. The cotton planting intention of the county cotton farmers, the cotton association of Sheyang county or the planting station of single county or United county have been investigated many times. The scope and object of each survey have been expanded or increased, but the result is basically the same, and the cotton planting area has been greatly reduced.

In early March, after the release of the national cotton temporary reserve plan in 2012, we combined with the publicity of the new cotton policy, and made some follow-up reviews on the intention of planting cotton in 9 towns, 24 villages and 406 cotton farmers in February.

In particular, some cotton stubble have been planted in autumn sowing, and now the earth works of the weirs, weirs and irrigation and drainage systems have been completed.

In addition, rice planting is indeed a small number of workers, a high degree of mechanization, large subsidies, stable output and increasing returns.

Despite the support of the temporary storage and purchase policy, cotton is obviously not strong enough, so it is not prepared to change its intentions or increase cotton planting.

The total cotton planting area is still only 1965 mu, compared with 2599 mu in the previous year, it has decreased by 634 mu, with a reduction of 24.4%.

Comprehensive analysis of the current situation, the county's cotton planting area this year is about 397 thousand mu, less than last year, nearly 130 thousand acres, less than the cotton circulation system reform since 2004, the most cotton planting area in 2004 half of the 820 thousand mu, compared with the normal year 650 thousand mu planting area also reduced by about 250 thousand acres, the reduction of 38.9%.

2, the preparation for farming is slow. The cotton association of Tien county survey, to March 15th, part of cotton field cotton rod cleaning has not yet ended, the winter roll over spring field proportion is less than half, nutrition bowl bed finishing has just begun, cotton preparation materials purchase has not been all in place.

In particular, the sale of cotton seeds is still hot and cold. In previous years, such a bustling scene has not been revealed.

According to seed distributors, the sale of cotton seeds has been delayed for one month this year.

Cotton growers also admitted that this year the cotton area is small, the pressure of the sowing seeding is reduced, and the seed supply is sufficient, so that it can be bought at any time. Even if the bowl is ready, it is not too late to buy it.

3, cotton farmers have more misgivings.

After the announcement of the plan, cotton farmers have many doubts and misgivings.

The first is that the increase in cotton prices is obviously "three low".

The "plan" clearly stated that the price of cotton temporary storage in 2012 and the price of standard grade lint to storehouse increased by 600 yuan over the previous year, an increase of 3.03%.

This increase is lower than the minimum grain purchase price of wheat this year, an average of 8.9%, the increase of rice 14.62%, also lower than this year's national power control about 4% of the price rise, less than this year's cotton production cost is expected to be no less than 10% increase.

County Cotton Association survey, at present, the market supply of cotton seed prices are high, less packaging weight.

The increase in the cost of controlled species and the reduction of cotton seed yield caused widespread increase in the wholesale price of seeds, resulting in an increase in the retail price of each packaging unit ranging from 5 to 10 yuan, while the seed packaging weight continued to decrease.

The association randomly checked 30 cotton varieties, the average packaging volume was 284.5 grams, 302.8 grams lower than last year, 18.3 grams, the minimum is only 245 grams, completely can not meet the amount of field per mu.

Therefore, cotton growers and agricultural technicians all say that the cost of cotton seed use per mu will increase by 6 yuan this year, an increase of 11%.

Although the price of fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural films has increased by 50 yuan per ton, except for the wholesale price of urea, other varieties have not increased significantly over the same period of last year. However, the analysis of their raw materials and production costs is not a temporary phenomenon.

The labor cost per unit will be substantially increased in the total cost.

According to the calculation method of Cotton Association of Sheyang County, because of the substantial increase in per capita net income of rural residents in the whole county last year, the unit price of cotton farmers' cotton planting will increase from 35.5 yuan last year to 42.15 yuan this year, the increase will reach 18.73%.

Although it is too early to say how much work days will be spent, it is certain that the increase in man hour costs is unquestionable.

Two, it is doubtful whether cotton farmers can benefit from raising the prices of storage and storage.

Cotton farmers believe that since the implementation of the national subsidy for cotton varieties, they have also introduced many good policies to benefit cotton farmers. But in the long run, none of them can really benefit cotton farmers.

In the first two years after the implementation of the improved seed subsidy, the government used state subsidies directly linked to the seeds purchased by cotton farmers.

Two.

1, the price is generally stable. Since the launch of new cotton last year, the sales price of cotton has been generally stable under the influence of State purchasing and storage prices. Although there are periodic fluctuations, it basically fluctuates slightly on the axis of the purchase and storage price.

From March to 15, the average price of grade 328 lint was 19760 yuan per ton, which increased by 500 yuan and 60 yuan respectively, compared with 1 and February respectively, with an increase of 2.6% and 0.3% respectively.

It is clear that the growth rate in March is down again, which is still 36.16% as compared with the price of 31000 yuan in the same period last year.

2, sales progress is slow. The sale of cotton after the Spring Festival in the county is much better than that in the same period last year, but it is much better than the absolute quantity of cotton enterprises, but the number of batches is small, the quantity is small, and the progress is slow.

The cumulative sales after the holiday are only 2400 tons, and the old customers are the main ones. The imbalance between enterprises is also relatively large. The well sold enterprises have already achieved zero inventory, while the accumulative total sales volume of the enterprises with more inventory is only half of that of their purchase.

According to the County Cotton Association statistics, at present, the stock of commodity cotton in the whole county (excluding the acquisition and processing of real estate cotton is basically over), some enterprises are still acquiring more than 10 thousand tons of cotton purchased from other countries.

This is the largest inventory in the same period since the reform of cotton circulation system.

The cumulative sales progress was slower than the same sales situation of 15.8 percentage points for the same period in 2011, and the total inventory was 2.49 times that of 4 thousand and 100 tons in the same period last year.

According to the relevant spirit of this year's central economic work and the five session of the eleven National People's Congress, with the gradual development of a series of measures such as national reform and expansion of domestic demand, the sales of textile and clothing will also increase by a certain extent, which will be more conducive to the development of the cotton spinning economy.

However, most enterprises will still be affected by many factors such as the expansion of international economic environment and domestic production costs, lack of operating capital and product mix adjustment, and the difficulties will not be completely removed.

In addition, the advantage of the imported cotton price difference, the quality superiority of the national cotton picking and storing cotton, the reduction of the demand for cotton by the textile enterprises, the increase of the cotton short pile and the import of the cotton waste will all affect the purchase and consumption of domestic cotton, especially the sale of the cotton stocks in the cotton enterprises, which will be delayed in time, and further enlarge the business pressure.

Comprehensive analysis of the situation, cotton prices will rise a little in the next few months and even before the 2012-2013 cotton year's new cotton listing.

It is also not possible to fully balance the cost of at least 200 yuan per ton per month, including the occupation of capital interest, and so on. The market and price trend of cotton can not be fully valued, or even the situation that new cotton can not be cleared before the listing of new cotton in the previous year.

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Three, the implementation of the "plan" to protect cotton farmers' income.

At present, cotton production and preparation work has been launched. In order to fully implement the State purchasing and storage policy, further enhance the cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting cotton and stabilize cotton planting, it is suggested that governments at all levels and relevant departments should take the interests of protecting cotton farmers as the foothold of implementing the plan, and do everything possible to carry out the policy well.

1, we need to strengthen policy publicity.

At present, it is not enough to publicize and carry out the plan according to some departments, and suggests that governments at all levels take part in it directly, so as to enhance the authority of the national promulgation policy, and introduce the implementation rules as soon as possible, so as to guide the departments to do their work well and aim at protecting the interests of cotton farmers, so as to fully implement the original intention of the national policy.

2, strict monitoring of cottonseed prices.

Cottonseed price is most directly related to cotton farmers' income.

It is suggested that the relevant departments of the state should scientifically and reasonably deduce the basic price or minimum purchase price of cottonseed according to the market price of cottonseed terminal products, and severely crack down on the interests of cotton farmers, such as bullying and monopoly, and so on.

3, set up the basic cost of cotton enterprises.

Last year, after the introduction of the cotton temporary acquisition plan, the cotton association of China calculated the basic price of cotton purchase, processing, pportation, taxes and other basic expenses when calculating the reference price of seed cotton purchase.

This year, with the rise of prices and the increase of artificial costs, the basic cost of cotton will be further increased.

It is suggested that all parties concerned should start from the overall interests of cotton farmers and let them benefit the people.

The purchase and storage units should provide convenience for enterprises to reduce the cost of storage and storage. Cotton enterprises should start from internal management and reduce costs and expenses, so that the cotton prices raised by the "plan" can be pferred to cotton growers in whole or in large part.

4, continue to increase the amount of loan policy for cotton enterprises.

There are 13 enterprises of 400 types in Sheyang, and the equipment is enough to ensure the cotton processing in the whole county.

During the cotton purchase period in 2011, the credit limit of the Agricultural Development Bank reached 230 million yuan, but it was actually less than 50 million yuan for the local cotton purchase.

Due to the insufficiency of the acquisition funds, the purchase amount of these enterprises has not been able to go up. The total purchase (conversion) of lint is only 9800 tons, accounting for 26.7% of the total purchase amount of the whole county enterprise, except for some enterprises reserved for self spinning, the total amount of storage is less than 4000 tons, and only 40% of the total purchase amount.

In the new cotton year, it is suggested that the State Agricultural Development Bank continue to increase the amount and quantity of the acquisition funds of the large package enterprises that have completed the task of reforming the cotton quality inspection system, so as to help enterprises effectively reduce the acquisition cost and better carry out the purchase and storage price, so that cotton growers can get more direct benefits when they sell seeds and cotton.

5, support the development of cotton spinning enterprises.

In view of the fact that textile enterprises are short of capital, high production costs and weak purchasing power, it is suggested that the state should formulate special support policies including financial subsidies, tax relief and regulation, and give a certain amount of financial subsidies to enterprises that use domestic cotton and control international cotton prices.

It is hoped that this will not only help enterprises lighten their burden, speed up technological pformation, promote industrial upgrading, but also better promote the sustainable development of cotton industry.

6, give full play to the role of trade associations in the implementation of the plan.

Cotton trade associations at all levels should give full play to their role in the implementation of the plan, focus on self-discipline and the maintenance of the cotton market order, organize and guide members to strictly enforce the cotton price policy and make full efforts to build a good image of the enterprises in implementing the plan.

We should help businesses, quality supervision and other relevant departments to do a good job in the dynamic management of the cotton market, stop investigating and dealing with irregularities immediately, earnestly safeguard the order of the cotton market, better protect the interests of cotton farmers, and stabilize cotton planting.