US Clothing Brand Gap Is Expected To Benefit From A Bumper Crop Of Cotton.

　　 India And Brazil's cotton harvest is high and output is likely to outstrip demand. Therefore, Gap and Abercrombie&Fitch of the United States expect prices to fall.

The US Department of agriculture predicts that in the year ending July, farmers will harvest 123 million 600 thousand bales of cotton (480 pounds), more than 15 million bags and 32% inventories, creating a second largest stock in history. According to the median figure predicted by 15 analysts compiled by Peng Bo, cotton in New York period fell by 3% this year, and it will drop 16% to 75 cents / pound by December 31st.

Due to the cold weather and floods in China and Pakistan, the crops were destroyed, so the price rose to $2.197 a year ago, setting the new high of the United States since the end of the South American war more than a century ago. Global farmers expand their cotton growing area. The International Cotton Advisory Committee in Washington is expected to increase by 12% next year.

Gap, the largest clothing chain in the US, told investors in February that the company expects to lower its cost in the second half of this year. Management Its namesake and Hollister teenage clothing Exclusive shop Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF) said in March 7th that the company would benefit from falling prices.

The International Monetary Fund has said that global economic growth is slowing and demand is weakening. The world economy will increase by 3.3% this year and 3.8% in 2011. Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council of China, announced in March 5th that this year's growth target is 7.5%, the lowest level since 2004. Government data showed that Japan contracted 0.7% in the fourth quarter, while the 17 economies in the euro area shrank by 0.3%.

The US Department of agriculture predicts that China will consume 40% of the world's cotton and will import 18 million 500 thousand packs this year, the largest import quantity in six years, an increase of 54% over the previous year. ICAC estimates that the number of imports is increasing due to the government's acquisition of domestic cotton as a national reserve. By July, China's cotton stocks may account for 25% of global inventories.

India is the second largest cotton exporter in the world, second only to the United States. The government said that after the lifting of the ban in March 12th, new export registration is not accepted. The country has exported about 9 million 500 thousand bales of /170 kilograms this year, exceeding the government's estimated 8 million 400 thousand bales. After the announcement of the stop of sale by the Ministry of Commerce of India, cotton prices in New York rose by 4.5% in March 5th.

ICAD estimates that falling prices and restrictions on exports may lead to a reduction in cotton planting area in India this year. Cotton planting starts next month. The planting area may be reduced by 6% from 12 million 190 thousand hectares (30 million 100 thousand acres) in the previous year.

Australia is the world's third largest exporter of cotton, and Australia's agriculture, resource economics and science bureau predicts that next year's output will probably be higher after floods have increased water supply. In the 12 months since July 1st, sales could reach 1 million 75 thousand tons, up from 955000 tons a year ago.

Gap, based in San Francisco, is quite confident that the average unit cost will improve in the second half. This year, the company's stock rose 41%, and this year's profit increased by 1.6% to $846 million.

The Abercrombie&Fitch company in new Ohio, Albany, is expected to carry forward. cotton The decline in inventory cost will continue to benefit the company. The company's shares rose 6.7% this year.